Published on 3 February 2010
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Main Points
1. Background
2. Results of the projection
2.1 Scotland
2.2 Council areas
2.3 NHS board areas
2.4 Age structure across Scotland
3. Comparisons with the 2006-based projections
4. High and low migration variant projections
5. Methodology and assumptions
5.1 Methodology
5.2 Base population
5.3 Projections software system and other small method changes
5.4 Fertility
5.5 Mortality
5.6 Migration
6. Uses and limitations of projections
7. Consequences of projections
8. Further information
Annex A
Annex B
Annex C
Annex D
Annex E
Annex F
Annex G
List of Tables
Table A Components of projected population change for council areas, 2008-2033
Table B Projected percentage change in population (2008-based), by broad age group and council areas, 2008-2033
Table 1 Projected population by council and NHS board area (2008-based), 2008-2033
Table 2 Projected population (2008-based) by sex and broad age group, council and NHS board areas, selected years
Table 3 Projected percentage change in population (2008-based), by broad age group, council and NHS board areas, selected years
Table 4 Projected births (2008-based), by council and NHS board areas, 2008-2033
Table 5 Comparison between 2006 and 2008-based population projections, by council and NHS board areas, 2008-2031
Table 6 Comparison between principal, high and low migration variant population projections, by council and NHS board areas, 2013-2033
Detailed Tables - for each administrative area by single year of age and sex are also available on the GROS website.
List of Figures
Figure 1 Estimated population of Scotland (2008-based), actual and projected, 1951 - 2033
Figure 2a Projected percentage change in population, (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033 (Map)
Figure 2b Projected percentage change in population (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033 (Chart)
Figure 3a Projected percentage change in population, (2008-based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033 (Map)
Figure 3b Projected percentage change (2008-based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033 (Chart)
Figure 4a Projected percentage change in population aged 0-15 (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033
Figure 4b Projected percentage change in population of working age 1 (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033
Figure 4c Projected percentage change in population of pensionable age 1 (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033
Figure 4d Projected percentage change in population aged 75 and over (2008 based), by council area, 2008-2033
Figure 5a Projected percentage change in population aged 0-15 (2008-based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033
Figure 5b Projected percentage change in population of working age1 (2008-based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033
Figure 5c Projected percentage change in population of pensionable age 1 (2008-based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033
Figure 5d Projected percentage change in population aged 75 and over (2008 based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033
Figure 6a Age structure of council areas in 2008: children, working age, and pensionable age1 (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
Figure 6b Projected age structure of council areas in 2033 (2008-based): children, working age, and pensionable age1 (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
Figure 7a Age structure of NHS board areas in 2008: children, working age, and pensionable age1 (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
Figure 7b Projected age structure of NHS board areas in 2033 (2008-based): children, working age, and pensionable age1 (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
Figure 8 Percentage difference between projected 2031 population using 2006-based and 2008-based projections, by council area
Figure 9 Percentage difference between 2006-based and 2008-based population projections in 2031, by NHS board area
Figure 10a Projected percentage change in population under low migration, principal and high migration projections (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033
Figure 10b Projected percentage change in population under low migration, principal and high migration projections (2008-based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033
Figure 11 Projected percentage change in births (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033
Figure 12 Migration to and from outwith Scotland and to and from other council areas within Scotland
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