Population Projections for Scottish areas (2012-based)

Population projections by age and sex at council area and NHS health board level.

Published on 14 May 2014

Correction: 30 July 2014

Contents

1. Background
2. Uses and Limitations of Projections
3. Results of the Projection
   1. 3.1 Scotland
   2. 3.2 Council Areas
   3. 3.3 NHS Board Areas
   4. 3.4 Area Structure Across Scotland
4. Comparisons with the 2010-based Projections
5. Variant Projections
   1. 5.1 Introduction
   2. 5.2 Migration Variants
   3. 5.3 Life Expectancy Variants
   4. 5.4 Fertility Variants
6. Methodology and Assumptions
   1. 6.1 Methodology
   2. 6.2 Base Population
   3. 6.3 Projections Systems
   4. 6.4 Fertility
   5. 6.5 Mortality
   6. 6.6 Migration
7. Further Information
8. Notes on statistical publications
9. Related organisations

List of Tables

• Table A:
  Components of projected population change for Council areas, 2012-2037
• Table B:
  Projected percentage change in population (2012-based), by broad age group and Council areas, 2012-2037
• Table 1:
  Projected population by Council and NHS Board area (2012-based), 2012-2037
• Table 2:
  Projected population (2012-based) by sex and broad age group, Council and NHS Board areas, selected year
• Table 3:
  Projected percentage change in population (2012-based), by broad age group, Council and NHS Board areas, selected years
• Table 4:
  Projected births (2012-based), by Council and NHS Board areas, 2012-2037
• Table 5:
  Comparison between 2010 and 2012-based population projections, by Council and NHS Board areas, 2012-2035
• Table 6:
  Comparison between principal and variant population projections, by Council and NHS Board areas, 2012-2037

List of Annexes

• Annex A:
  Assumed fertility rates by age, mid-year to mid-year periods, Scotland
• Annex B:
  Assumed mortality rates by sex, for selected ages and years, Scotland
• Annex C:
  Fertility and mortality local scaling factors by Council and NHS Board area
• Annex D:
  Migration assumptions for the principal projection by Council and NHS Board area
• Annex E:
  Migration assumptions for the high migration variant by Council and NHS Board area
• Annex F:
  Migration assumptions for the low migration variant by Council and NHS Board area
• Annex G:
  Trends in net migration, mid-2008 to mid-2012 by Council areas
• Annex H:
  Scenarios and assumptions for the 2012-based principal and seven variant projections for Scotland

List of Figures

• Figure 1:
  Estimated population of Scotland (2012-based), actual and projected, 1952-2037
• Figure 2a:
  Projected percentage change in population, (2012-based), by Council area, 2012-2037 (Map)
• Figure 2b:
  Projected percentage change in population (2012-based), by Council area, 2012-2037 (Chart)
• Figure 3a:
  Projected percentage change in population, (2012-based), by NHS Board area, 2012-2037 (Map)
• Figure 3b:
  Projected percentage change in population (2012-based), by NHS Board area, 2012-2037 (Chart)
• Figure 4a:
  Projected percentage change in population aged 0-15 (2012-based), by Council area, 2012-2037
• Figure 4b:
  Projected percentage change in population of working age (2012-based), by Council area, 2012-2037
• Figure 4c:
  Projected percentage change in population of pensionable age (2012-based), by Council area, 2012-2037
• Figure 4d:
  Projected percentage change in population of 75+ (2012-based), by Council area, 2012-2037
• Figure 5a:
  Projected percentage change in population aged 0-15 (2012-based), by NHS Board area, 2012-2037
• Figure 5b:
  Projected percentage change in population of working age (2012-based), by NHS Board area, 2012-2037
• Figure 5c:
  Projected percentage change in population of pensionable age (2012-based), by NHS Board area, 2012-2037
• Figure 5d:
  Projected percentage change in population of 75+ (2012-based), by NHS Board area, 2012-2037
• Figure 6a:
  Age structure of Council areas in 2012: children, working age, and pensionable age(%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
• Figure 6b:
  Projected age structure of Council areas in 2037 (2012-based): children, working age, and pensionable age(%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
• Figure 7a:
  Age structure of NHS Board areas in 2012: children, working age, and pensionable age(%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
• Figure 7b:
  Projected age structure of NHS Board areas in 2037 (2012-based): children, working age, and pensionable age(%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
• Figure 8:
  Percentage difference between projected 2035 population using 2012-based and 2010-based projections, by Council area
• Figure 9:
  Percentage difference between projected 2035 population using 2012-based and 2010-based projections, by NHS Board area
• Figure 10:
  Variant population projections (2012-based), Scotland, 2012-2037
• Figure 11:
  Projected percentage change in births (2012-based), by Council area, 2012-2037
• Figure 12:
  Migration to and from outwith Scotland and to and from other Council areas within Scotland, 2007-2012

A National Statistics publication for Scotland. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.