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Scotland's Population 2006: The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends: 152nd Edition

Key Points

Population

Scotland’s population rose for the fourth year running in the year to 30 June 2006, by 22,100 to 5,116,900.

The increase in Scotland’s population was caused by net in-migration. This included a net gain of around 8,900 from the rest of the UK and of around 12,700 from the rest of the world.

In the year to 30 June 2006 there were 300 more deaths than births, the smallest difference since the year to 30 June 1997. In the 2006 calendar year, there were more births than deaths, the first year there were more births than deaths since 1994.

For every region of Great Britain, in-migrants to Scotland exceeded out-migrants in the year to 30 June 2006.

Since 1996 Scotland’s population has increased by around 25,000 (0.5 per cent), from 5.09 million to 5.12 million. While there were 8 per cent fewer people aged under 30 and 2 per cent fewer aged 30-44, there were increases for those aged 45 and over, particularly for those aged 45-49 and 75 and over (14 and 13 per cent respectively).

The biggest increases in population in the last 10 years have been in West Lothian, East Lothian and Stirling while Eilean Siar, Dundee City and Inverclyde have accounted for the largest decreases over the same period.

Current projections suggest that Scotland’s population will rise to 5.13 million in 2019 before falling below 5 million in 2036, reaching 4.86 million by 2044. This projected long-term decline is mostly the result of fewer births than deaths.

Births

There were 55,690 births in 2006, 1,304 (2.4 per cent) more than in 2005.

48 per cent of births in 2006 were to unmarried parents, compared with 36 per cent in 1996.

In 2006, the average age of the mother at childbirth was 29.5 compared with 27.4 in 1991, 26.1 in 1977 and 27.4 in 1964.

The total fertility rate (TFR) rose to 1.67 in 2006, higher than the historic low of 1.48 in 2002, but much lower than the 1964 peak of 3.09 and the ‘replacement’ level of about 2.1.

The average completed family size for women born in 1976 was 0.98 by the time they reached 30. For women born in 1951, the same figure was 1.67.

Deaths

There were 55,093 deaths in 2006, 654 fewer than in 2005 and the lowest total recorded since the introduction of civil registration in 1855.

Some significant improvements have been achieved in age specific mortality rates over the last 25 years. For example, the rate for males aged 45-74 in 2006 was over 40 per cent lower than in 1981.

There were 5.3 stillbirths per thousand births (live and still) in 2006, the same rate as 2005 and a reduction from 13.1 per thousand in 1971.

There were 248 infant deaths (deaths of children aged under 1) in 2006; the lowest number recorded since civil registration began in 1855.

In 2006, the two most common causes of death were cancer (27 per cent of deaths) and ischaemic (coronary) heart disease (17 per cent).

The total number of suicides and probable suicides (‘intentional self harm’ and ‘events of undetermined intent’) in 2006 was 765, a rise of 2 on 2005.

A male baby born in 2006 could expect to live for 74.8 years and a female baby for 79.7 years – increases from 69.1 and 75.4 for those born in 1981.

For Scottish males, expectation of life is almost 1 year lower than the EU (25 states) average and, for females, it is almost 2 years lower. For both sexes, life expectancy is about 4 years lower than the best-performing EU states.

Marriages

There were 29,898 marriages in Scotland in 2006, 3 per cent fewer than in 2005. The number of marriages in recent years has been significantly lower than the numbers in the early 1970s, when typically over 40,000 marriages took place each year.

For over a quarter of the marriages in 2006 neither party was resident in Scotland. Almost half of those marriages took place at Gretna.

Divorced people accounted for over a quarter of people marrying in 2006, an increase from just under 6 per cent in 1971.

Civil marriages can, since 2002, be conducted in ‘approved places’ outwith registration offices. In 2006, 7,346 civil ceremonies (25 per cent of all marriages and 48 per cent of civil marriages) were conducted at these ‘approved places’.

Civil Partnerships

There were 1,047 civil partnerships registered in 2006. The average age at formation of a partnership was 45.6 for men and 43.0 for women.

Households

Between 2004 and 2024, the number of households is projected to increase by 13 per cent to 2.5 million, an average of 14,800 additional households per year.

Most of the projected increase in the number of households is the result of the ageing population and more people living alone or in smaller households, rather than an increase in the overall population. This is part of a longer-term trend – the average household size fell from over 3 people in the 1960s to 2.2 people by 2004, and is projected to fall below 2 people by 2024.

Scottish Demography – Local Perspectives

There are substantial differences in demography – birth rates, death rates, cause of death and migration – between the 32 Council areas in Scotland, and some of the differences are getting larger.

Between 1981 and 2006, Scotland’s population declined from 5.180 million to 5.117 million (1.2 per cent). The suburban Council areas of Aberdeenshire, East Renfrewshire, West Lothian and East Lothian all grew by over 10 per cent, whereas many of the Council areas in West Central Scotland including Glasgow City saw declines of over 10 per cent.

When birth and death rates are standardised for age, most of the more rural areas in Scotland exhibit relatively low death rates and high fertility, whereas death rates across much of the Central Belt are particularly high.

The death rate for males aged 15 to 34 years in Scotland has risen from 1.01 to 1.19 per 1,000 between 1981-85 and 2001-05. Eilean Siar had the highest rate in 2001-05 (2.14 per 1,000) and City of Edinburgh the lowest (0.81 per 1,000).

Deaths from lung cancer and heart disease are particularly high in Glasgow City, Inverclyde and some other West of Scotland authorities and their situation relative to the rest of Scotland has in many cases worsened in the last twenty years.

Overall fertility across Scotland has been decreasing amongst women in their twenties and increasing amongst women in their 30s. This is particularly marked in East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire, where the median age of childbirth has moved from around 27 in 1981-85 to over 31 in 2001-05. In contrast, Dundee City and the West Central Scotland Council areas show relatively low median ages (around 24 in 1981-85 increasing to around 27 in 2001-05).

Patterns of migration also vary hugely. The four largest cities show large inflows of young people, attracted by opportunities to study and work, whereas the suburban areas around the same cities show inflows of people later on in life (looking for larger homes to start families). In many rural areas, there is an outflow of young people looking to study and work, but consistent (if moderate) inflows of people at all later ages. Finally, there are some authorities in the West Central Belt which show very low levels of migration in or out at all ages.

The level of migration from outside Scotland also varies hugely, with the four city Council areas having relatively high levels of births to mothers from outside the UK. In Moray, Argyll & Bute and the Scottish Borders, many births were to mothers from elsewhere in the UK. In contrast, the West Central Scotland areas around Glasgow City had very low proportions of births to mothers not from Scotland.

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