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Scotland's Population 2012: The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends 158th Edition

Important points

Population

The estimated population of Scotland on 30 June 2012 is 5,313,600 the highest ever.

The population of Scotland grew by around 13,700 in the 12 months between 1 July 2011 and 30 June 2012, an increase of 0.3%.

The increase in the population in the 12 months to 30 June 2012 was mainly due to:

The age of the population of Scotland was as follows:

Scotland's population has been fairly stable over the past 50 years. It last peaked at 5.24 million in 1974 before falling to 5.05 million in 2002. It then increased each year to reach a new peak of 5.31 million in 2012. That increase has mainly been the result of more people moving to Scotland than leaving although net migration (number of people moving to Scotland minus number of people leaving Scotland) in the latest year has gone down compared with recent years.

2010-based projections (estimates for future years largely based on past trends) suggest that the population of Scotland will rise to 5.76 million by 2035 and that the population will age significantly, with the number of people aged 65 and over increasing by 63%, from 0.88 million to 1.43 million. New projections based on 2012 estimates will be released in November 2013.

Births

There were 58,027 births registered in Scotland in 2012.

There were 563 (1.0%) fewer births in 2012 than in 2011. This is the fourth year the number of births has fallen (following increases in each of the previous six years).

The average age of mothers has increased from 27.4 in 1991 to 29.7 in 2012. Similarly, the average age of fathers has increased from 30.0 in 1991 to 32.5 in 2012.

The percentage of babies born to unmarried couples is 51.3% in 2012. Most births are registered by both parents.

85% of mothers who gave birth in Scotland in 2012 were born in the UK, including 76% who were born in Scotland. Seven per cent of mothers had been born elsewhere in the European Union (EU), including 4% from the countries which joined the EU in 2004 (such as Poland).

For 15% of births in 2012 neither parent was born in Scotland (compared with 9% in 2003) and for 10% of births neither parent was born in the UK (compared with 3% in 2003).

Deaths

There were 54,937 deaths registered in Scotland in 2012. This was 1,276 (2.4%) more than in 2011. An increase was not unexpected because 2011 had the lowest total recorded since the introduction of civil registration in 1855.

The main causes of deaths were:

The percentage of deaths caused by coronary heart disease has fallen from 29% in 1980-1982 to 14% in 2012, and the percentage for strokes has reduced from 14% to 8%, but the percentage of deaths caused by cancer has risen from 22% to 29%. However, the average age of death from cancer has risen, and the age-standardised death rate for cancer (which takes account of the change in the age-distribution of the population) has fallen by about a sixth since the start of the 1980s.

Death rates from cancer, coronary heart disease and stroke in Scotland are well above the rates for the other countries in the UK.

There were 274 stillbirths and 217 infant deaths in 2012. Death rates for both have improved significantly. The rate of stillbirths has dropped from 13.1 for every 1,000 births (live births and stillbirths) in 1971 to 4.7 in 2012. The infant death rate fell from 19.9 for every 1,000 live births in 1971 to 3.7 in 2012.

Life expectancy

Estimates of life expectancy presented in this report use population estimates based on the 2001 Census. Life expectancy estimates using population estimates based on the 2011 Census will be published in spring 2014.

Life expectancy in Scotland has improved greatly over the last 25 years, increasing from 69.1 years for men and 75.3 years for women born around 1981 to 76.1 years for men and 80.6 years for women born around 2010.

Migration (people moving into and out of the country)

In the last half of the 20th century, more people tended to leave Scotland than move here. However, since 2002, this has changed.

In the year to 30 June 2012, the number of people moving to Scotland from other parts of the UK, and the number moving out of Scotland to other parts of the UK were as follows.

This movement of people increased the population by around 3,000 people, similar to recent years.

In the year to 30 June 2012, the number of people moving to Scotland from overseas and the number moving out of Scotland to go overseas were as follows.

This movement of people increased the population by around 9,700, lower than the net gains from recent years.

Most people moving to and from Scotland are young - between 16 and 34, with smaller peaks for children under 5 moving to and from Scotland.

The 2011 Census results show that:

Marriages and civil partnerships

There were 30,534 marriages in Scotland in 2012. This includes 7,259 marriages (24%) where neither the bride nor groom lived in Scotland, but does not include people living in Scotland who marry elsewhere.

The average age at which people marry for the first time has increased by around two years since 2002, to 32.9 years for men and 31.0 years for women.

Just over half of all marriages (51%) were civil ceremonies, carried out by a registrar - compared with just under one-third (31%) in 1971. During 2012, 8,144 civil ceremonies were conducted at approved places. This is compared to 3,465 in 2003, the first full year of these arrangements.

Most religious marriages were carried out by Church of Scotland ministers (5,508), with clergy from the Roman Catholic Church carrying out 1,827 marriages. Celebrants from the Humanist Society of Scotland, authorised to carry out marriages since 2005, officiated at 3,052 marriages compared with 2,486 in 2011.

In 2012 there were 574 civil partnerships - 257 male couples and 317 female couples.

Adoptions

In 2012, there were 495 adoptions recorded in Scotland. The number of adoptions each year is around a quarter of what it used to be in the early 1970s.

Households and housing

In mid-2012, there were 2.39 million households in Scotland, which is an increase of around 175,000 over the past ten years.

The number of households has been increasing over the years, but this growth has slowed since 2007. There was an increase of 10,778 households from 2011 to 2012, which was the lowest seen in the last ten years.

The increase in the number of households is the result of an ageing population, and more people living alone or in smaller households, as well as an increase in the population.

Thirty-eight per cent of dwellings in Scotland are entitled to a Council Tax discount because there is only one adult living there (alone, with children or with adults who are exempt for Council Tax purposes). The proportion of people living alone is higher in urban areas and in more deprived areas.

Across Scotland in 2012, 2.9% of homes were empty and 1.5% were second homes, though there are wide differences across the country. There are more empty homes in more deprived areas, and more second homes in the remote rural areas.

Statutory registration

Since 1855, by law all births, deaths and marriages (and now civil partnerships) must be registered. The local authorities are responsible for providing the registration service under the supervision of the Registrar General.

There are currently three district examiners who are responsible for checking the accuracy of all the 150,000 records created each year.

Every year since 2007, registrars in the 32 councils have achieved a high rate of accuracy, with an average of over 97% of the records they create having no mistakes in them.

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