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Scotland's Population 2012: The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends 158th Edition

Appendix 2 - Notes, definitions and quality of statistics

This appendix gives general notes on some of the information and conventions used in this report, and defines some of the terms.

General

Conventions for tables

Where a range of years is listed in a table (for example, '1980-82'), the information we have given will be an average for that length of time.

In all tables 'year' means 'calendar year' unless we tell you otherwise. Many of the ranges of years start in a census year (for example, 1991).

The date events happen and the date of registration

The statistics about births and deaths in the Population chapter are for mid-year periods (from 1 July of one year to 30 June of the next) and relate to the date the event happened and not to the date the event was registered. For example, a birth on 30 June 2012 which was registered on 4 July 2012 would be included in the
mid-2012 figures, which relate to the period from 1 July 2011 to 30 June 2012.

All the other statistics about births and deaths, as well as the statistics about stillbirths, marriages and civil partnerships, are for calendar years and relate to the date the event was registered, not the date the event actually happened. For example, a birth on 31 December 2011 which was registered on 4 January 2012 would be included in the 2012 figures. By law, births and stillbirths should be registered within 21 days, marriages and civil partnerships should be registered within three days, and deaths should be registered within eight days. Almost all births, stillbirths, marriages, civil partnerships and deaths are registered on time.

The place the relevant person usually lives and the place the event happens

Births, stillbirths, and deaths are generally allocated to the area in Scotland where the relevant person (the mother for births and stillbirths, and the person who has died for deaths) usually lives. If the relevant person does not usually live in Scotland, the event is allocated to the area in which it happened. However, a death may be allocated to the area where the person used to live if the area is in Scotland and the person had lived away from that area for less than 12 months.

Marriage and civil partnership figures relate to the area where the event took place.

Age

Ages relate to the person's age on their last birthday.

When working out average ages (such as the average age at death and the average age of mothers at childbirth) we have added half a year to people's age at their last birthday. For example, to work out the overall average age at death, we have assumed that the average age of 77-year-olds who died was 77 years and 6 months.

Age standardisation

A straight comparison of rates between areas may give a misleading picture because of differences in sex and age between the different populations. For example, it would be unreasonable to expect a high birth rate in an area with a high proportion of elderly people. Because of this, we have standardised information in certain tables and charts. Standardisation allows areas with different age and sex structures to be easily compared, comparing the actual number of events that happen in an area with the total number of events that would be expected if the area had the rates of the standard population. In this report, the standard population refers to the overall Scottish population for the year or years in question.

Lists of groups of countries

EU-15 refers to the countries that were member states of the European Union before 1 May 2004, which were Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

EU-25 refers to the EU-15, plus the countries that became member states of the European Union between 1 May 2004 and 31 December 2006, which were Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia.

EU-27 refers to the EU-25, plus the countries that became member states of the European Union on 1 January 2007, which were Bulgaria and Romania.

Croatia joined the European Union on 1 July 2013 and will be included, where appropriate, in the next edition of this publication.

CEECs (Central and Eastern European Countries) is the term the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development uses for the group of countries comprising Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, and the three Baltic States - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

Urban and rural classifications

'Large urban areas' are settlements of over 125,000 people.

'Other urban areas' are settlements of 10,000 to 125,000 people.

'Accessible small towns' are settlements of between 3,000 and 10,000 people that are within a 30-minute drive of a settlement of 10,000 people or more.

'Remote small towns' are settlements of between 3,000 and 10,000 people that are not within a 30-minute drive of a settlement of 10,000 people or more.

'Accessible rural settlements' are settlements of fewer than 3,000 people that are within a 30-minute drive of a settlement of 10,000 people or more.

'Remote rural settlements' are settlements of fewer than 3,000 people that are not within a 30-minute drive of a settlement of 10,000 people or more.

You can get more information about the Scottish Government Urban Rural Classification in the Methodology section of the Scottish Government (SG) website.

Deprivation

The Scottish Government produces the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation to define small-area concentrations of deprivation across all of Scotland. The index is based on 38 indicators in seven fields - income, employment, health, education, skills and training, housing, geographic access and crime.

You can get more information about the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation on the SG website.

Chapter 1 - Population

All population figures refer to estimates at 30 June of the relevant year.

Population covered

The estimated population of an area includes all those who usually live there, whatever their nationality. Students are treated as living at their term-time address. Members of UK and non-UK armed forces stationed in Scotland are included, but UK forces stationed outside Scotland are not. Short-term international migrants (people who move to Scotland for less than 12 months) are also not included.

Population projections

Population projections are estimates for future years largely based on past trends. The Registrar General asks the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to prepare population projections with input from his own experts. The latest national projections were published in October 2011, and were based on 2010 population estimates.

Sources and quality of statistics - population

Population estimates are based on the 2011 Census and are updated each year by adding one year to the age of everyone in the population and including information on births, deaths and migration (people moving to or away from an area). Births and deaths are estimated using information from the civil registration system, which is virtually complete. Migration is more difficult to estimate because there is no complete migration registration system in the UK.

There is more information about the quality of population statistics in the
Population Methodology Guide and the About this Publication paper. Both PDF documents are available on the National Records of Scotland (NRS).

Sources and quality of statistics - population projections

For more information about the quality of population projections from the
Quality and Methodology Information Paper (PDF document) on the Office for National Statistics website.

Chapter 2 - Births

Cohort

A cohort is a well-defined group of people who have had a common experience and are observed through time. For example, 'the birth cohort of 1976' refers to the people born in that year.

General fertility rate (GFR)

The number of births per 1,000 women of childbearing age (15 to 44).

Total fertility rate (TFR)

The average number of children who would be born, per woman, to a cohort of women who experienced, throughout their childbearing years, the fertility rates for the calendar year in question.

Age specific fertility rate (ASFR)

The number of births per woman for a specific age during a set time.

Marital status of parents

'Married parents' means parents who are married to each other. 'Unmarried parents' refers to parents who are not married, or who are married but not to each other.

Sources and quality of statistics - births

Statistics about births in Scotland are produced from information collected when the births are registered. The information should be very accurate as it is almost always provided by one or both of the baby's parents, and the parent (or parents) and the registrar should check the details that will appear on the child's birth certificate before the certificate is produced. Also, each record of a birth is checked by one of our district examiners.

The statistics will cover almost 100% of all births in Scotland - because of the importance of a person's birth certificate, there will be very few births that are not registered, and they are likely to be the result of extremely unusual circumstances (for example, if a pregnancy was hidden, the baby killed and the body disposed of).

You can get more information about statistics on births from the Births - Background Information section on the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website.

For general information on all vital events statistics please go to the Vital Events General Background Information of the NRS website.

Chapter 3 - Deaths

Cause-of-death coding

Since 1 January 2000, deaths in Scotland have been coded in line with the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (Tenth Revision), also known as ICD10. We put the underlying causes of death into classes based on information collected from the medical certificate of cause of death, together with any extra information the certifying doctor provides later. We also take account of changes that procurators fiscal tell us about. You can get more detailed information about death certificates, coding the causes of death, and how we produce statistics of deaths from certain causes from the deaths background section of the NRS website.

Stillbirth

Section 56(1) of the Registration of Births, Deaths and Marriages (Scotland) Act 1965 (as amended by the Still-Birth (Definition) Act 1992) defines a stillbirth as a child born after the 24th week of pregnancy which does not breathe or show any other sign of life.

Perinatal deaths

This refers to stillbirths and deaths in the first week of life.

Infant deaths

This refers to all deaths in the first year of life.

Sources and quality of statistics - deaths

Statistics about deaths in Scotland are produced from information which is collected when the deaths are registered. Details of the causes of death come from the Medical Certificate of the Cause of Death (MCCD), and so represent the results of a doctor's clinical judgment, which may not be correct (and, sometimes, an investigator may feel that the doctor did not fill in the MCCD properly - for example, perhaps the doctor mentioned on the MCCD a medical condition that was not related in any way to the death). In some cases, the doctor, a procurator fiscal or a pathologist provides extra information about the cause of death later, for example following further investigations.

Other information about the person who has died will be provided by the person who registers the death (who is usually a son or daughter, sometimes a husband, wife or partner, another relative or a friend, or occasionally, someone like a police officer or a care-home manager) or the registrar can get the information from existing registration records (if the person who has died was born or married in Scotland). In a small percentage of cases, some of the information about the person who has died may not be complete or accurate (for example, if the person registering the death did not know the person very well, and the registrar could not get details from previous registration records). The person registering the death and the registrar should check the details before the certificate is produced. Also, each record of a death is checked by one of our district examiners.

The statistics will cover almost 100% of all deaths in Scotland, as a cemetery or a crematorium will not accept a body unless the death has been registered. However, occasionally a death may not be recorded (for example, because the authorities do not know that someone who is missing has died).

You can get more information about statistics on deaths in the Deaths - Background Information section of the NRS website.

You can also get some general information on all vital events statistics from the Vital Events - General Background Information section of the NRS website.

Chapter 4 - Life expectancy

The average number of extra years a person can expect to live if current trends regarding the number of deaths (mortality trends) continue for the rest of that person's life. Life expectancy is most commonly referred to in relation to life expectancy at birth.

Sources and quality of statistics - life expectancy

The life expectancy estimates are based on the likely trends in the number of deaths indicated by the death records for the three years before the year the records are published. For example, the estimates based on the figures for 2008-2010 for administrative areas were published in October 2011.

You can get more information about the quality of statistics on life expectancy in the Life Expectancy for Scotland Methodology Guide (PDF document) and on the Life Expectancy at Scotland Level Methodology page, both are held on the NRS website:

Chapter 5 - Migration

Net migration figures (the number of people moving to Scotland minus the number of people moving out of Scotland) include people joining and leaving the Armed Forces but do not include other changes, such as changes in the numbers of Armed Forces stationed in Scotland.

Sources and quality of statistics - migration

Estimates of internal migration (that is, people moving between Scotland and the rest of the UK) are based on GP registrations and are considered reasonably accurate for most groups. They may be less accurate for young men, as they tend not to register with a GP immediately after moving.

International migration estimates (that is, people moving between Scotland and countries outside the UK) are based largely on the International Passenger Survey (IPS). However, these estimates may not be very accurate due to the size of the survey in Scotland.

Net migration figures (the number of people moving to Scotland minus the number of people moving out of Scotland) include people joining and leaving the Armed Forces but do not include other changes, such as changes in the numbers of Armed Forces stationed in Scotland.

You can get more information about the quality of statistics on migration from the Population and Migration page and Migration Statistics - About this Publication (PDF document) section of the NRS website.

Chapter 6 - Marriages and civil partnerships

Civil marriages were introduced by the Marriage (Scotland) Act 1939, which came into force on 1 July 1940.

The Civil Partnership Act 2004, which applies throughout the UK, came into force on 5 December 2005. The act allows same-sex couples aged 16 and over to get legal recognition of their relationship. In Scotland, the first civil partnership was registered on 20 December 2005.

Sources and quality of statistics - marriages and civil partnerships

Statistics about marriages and civil partnerships in Scotland are produced from information which is collected when the marriages and civil partnerships are registered. The information should be very accurate as it will be provided by the bride and groom, or the civil partners, and the couple and the registrar will check the details that will appear on the certificate before the certificate is produced. Also, each record of a marriage or a civil partnership is checked by one of our district examiners.

The statistics cover 100% of all marriages and civil partnerships in Scotland as a marriage or civil partnership is not legally formed unless a district registrar has carried out all the legal requirements.

You can get more information about statistics on marriages and civil partnerships from the Marriages and Civil Partnerships - Background Information section of the NRS website.

You can also get some general information on all vital events statistics from the Vital Events - General Background Information section of the NRS website.

Chapter 7 - Adoptions

The Registrar General for Scotland registers adoptions under the Adoption of Children (Scotland) Act 1930.

Sources and quality of statistics - adoptions

You can get some more information about these statistics from the Adoptions - Background Information section on the NRS website.

Chapter 8 - Households and housing

Household projections

We produce household projections (estimates for future years largely based on past trends) every two years. These are mainly used for informing decisions about future housing need and providing services. The latest household projections, covering the length of time from 2010 to 2035, take account of the results of the latest population projections. They use information from the last two censuses to help project trends in how households are structured by type of household and by the age of the head of household. The head of household is defined in the census as the first person on the census form who is aged 16 or over and usually lives at the address in question. The projections give an indication of what would happen if past trends continue. They do not take account of policy initiatives, or other factors that may affect future populations. Projections for small groups are likely to be less reliable than those for larger groups.

Household estimates

Household estimates are produced every year from information on occupied and empty homes taken from council tax billing systems. An occupied home is roughly equivalent to a household. The estimates are used for a range of purposes including informing local authority decisions about housing need and providing services (including housing, planning waste collection and community care). Information on types of housing is taken from the Scottish Assessors' Portal. The latest household estimates are for 2012.

Sources and quality of statistics - households and housing

Information on occupied and empty homes and on housing type comes from local authority council tax billing systems and from the Scottish Assessors Association, and then goes through a thorough process of quality assurance. It is possible that not all of the information held on the billing systems is up to date. There can also be small differences in the definitions used for various categories in the billing systems. The details can change over time as a result of reviews of council tax discounts and exemptions and year-on-year differences in the way second homes and empty homes are classed by some local authorities. This can have a small effect on the percentages of homes which are classed as empty or second homes.

You can get more information in the 'Background Information' section of 'Estimates of Households and Dwellings in Scotland, 2012' from the Households section of the NRS website.

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