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Drug-related deaths in Scotland in 2010

4 NHS Board areas: trends, causes, drugs reported, and death rates by age-group

4.1 Deaths are normally classified by geographical area on the basis of the usual place of residence of the deceased (or, if that is not known, or is outwith Scotland, on the basis of the location of the place of death). Table HB1 shows the numbers of drug-related deaths for each NHS Board area. Of the 485 deaths in 2010, 167 (34 per cent) were counted against the Greater Glasgow & Clyde NHS Board area. Lothian, with 73 (15 per cent), had the next highest total followed by Lanarkshire (53 or 11 per cent) and Grampian (44 or 9 per cent).

4.2 Because of the generally small numbers involved, particularly for some NHS Board areas, great care should be taken when assessing any apparent trends shown in the table. Year-to-year variation in the figures could result in apparently large percentage changes. This is more likely for the areas with smaller populations, but can also be seen sometimes in the figures for the more populous areas (e.g. Greater Glasgow & Clyde: 151 in 2004; 111 in 2005; 162 in 2006). Therefore, using 5-year moving annual averages should 'smooth out' the effects of any fluctuations, and so provide a better indication of the longer-term trends. The areas with the largest increases between their annual averages for 1996-2000 and 2006-2010 were Greater Glasgow & Clyde (up by 64, from 113 to 177), Lanarkshire (up by 27, from 19 to 46), Lothian (up by 26, from 44 to 70), Ayrshire & Arran (up by 24, from 10 to 34) and Fife (up by 21, from 9 to 30). Forth Valley, Grampian and Tayside all had increases of 17 or 18.

4.3 The table also shows the population of each NHS Board area, and what its average number of drug-related deaths per year (for 2006-2010) represented per 1,000 population (using the population in the middle of the 5-year period as a proxy for the average population over the whole period). For Scotland as a whole, the average of 496 drug-related deaths per year represented a rate of 0.10 per 1,000 population. Only one area had a higher rate than this: Greater Glasgow & Clyde (0.15). The next highest rate was for Tayside (0.10); two areas had rates of 0.09, and three had rates of 0.08.

4.4 Table HB2 gives a breakdown by cause of death for each NHS Board area for 2010. Table HB3 shows some geographical differences in the reporting of certain drugs: figures which should be used with particular care, in the light of the points mentioned in sections 2 and 3.3, the effects of which could be proportionately greater on the figures of some of the areas with lower populations. Note also that the figures given in Table HB3 are on the standard basis (drugs implicated in, or which potentially contributed to, the cause of death), and so are not comparable to figures (in the editions for 2008 and earlier years) on the basis of 'all drugs which were [reported as having been] found to be present in the body'. As mentioned earlier, this web site has versions of Table HB3 which give (i) figures for 2008 on the standard basis and (ii) figures for 2009 and 2010 on the 'all drugs which were found to be present in the body' basis.

4.5 Table HB3 shows that, for most NHS Board areas, heroin/morphine was believed to have been implicated in, or to have potentially contributed to, a majority of the total number of deaths in 2010 (which are given in Table HB2) - for example, 19 out of 31 in Ayrshire & Arran, 92 out of 167 in Greater Glasgow & Clyde, and 34 out of 53 in Lanarkshire. However, there were lower proportions in Grampian (14 out of 44) and Lothian (26 out of 73). Fife had an above-average proportion for which methadone was implicated in, or potentially contributed (17 out of 35) as did Grampian (19 out of 44) and Lothian (33 out of 73); there were below-average proportions in Forth Valley (3 out of 18), Lanarkshire (15 out of 53) and Tayside (9 out of 34). The table also shows that benzodiazepines were implicated in, or potentially contributed to, only small proportions of the deaths in some areas in 2010, compared with three-quarters of the deaths in Grampian (33 out of 44) and almost a third of those in Lothian (23 out of 73) - although this comparison might be affected by differences in reporting practices (section 2).

4.6 The lower part of Table 8 provides, for each NHS Board area, for a number of age-groups, the drug-related death rate per 1,000 population. As with the overall rates in Table HB1, the figures were calculated using the average number of drug-related deaths per year (for 2006-2010), by taking the population in the middle of the 5-year period as a proxy for the average population over the whole period. Even though the figures are five-year averages, they must still be used with caution for the less populated areas (e.g. just three 15-24 year old drug-related deaths in the five years from 2006 to 2010, inclusive, caused Shetland to have a death rate for that age-group which was double its rate for Scotland as a whole). Of the more populous areas, Greater Glasgow & Clyde had the highest drug-related death rates: 0.35 for 25-34 year olds and 0.36 for the 35-44 age-group; both well above the overall average rates for Scotland as a whole for the same 5-year period (0.27 and 0.21, respectively). Ayrshire & Arran and Tayside had rates for 25-34 year olds which were above-average (0.30 and 0.31, respectively), but their rates for the 35-44 age-group were much lower (0.22 in both cases) and only just above the average level for Scotland as a whole for the five years. Greater Glasgow & Clyde's death rate for 45-54 year olds was 0.14, well above the overall level of 0.09, which also happened to be the highest figure for any of the other areas. However, the pattern was less clear for the 15-24 age-group, for which several areas had death rates which were above the overall average level for Scotland for the five years.

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