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High Level Summary of Statistics: Population and Migration

Household Projections
Last Updated: January 2017

By 2039, the number of households in Scotland is projected to increase by 14 per cent to 2.76 million - an average annual increase of about 13,800 households. Over the same period, Scotland's population is projected to increase by seven per cent.

This rise in population explains some of the increase in household numbers over the projection period. However, the household projections increase by a larger percentage than the population projections. This is the result of more people living alone or in smaller households.

Scotland's population is also ageing. The number of people aged 65 or over is increasing much faster than the number of children and younger adults. This has an impact on household structure as children tend to live in larger households and older people in smaller ones.

Projected change in number of households and population in Scotland 2014 to 2039

Projected change in number of households and population in Scotland 2012 to 2037

Source: Household and Population Projections for Scotland, National Records of Scotland (NRS), 2014-based

Household type

The chart below shows the numbers of households of each type in 2014 and the projected number in 2039. There is a projected increase in households containing just one adult (an increase of under a third) with nearly a quarter of people aged 16 or over projected to live alone by 2039.

There are also smaller projected increases in households with two adults (an increase of almost a fifth), and households with one adult with children (an increase of almost a quarter). In contrast, the number of larger households is projected to fall, with households containing two or more adults with children, or three or more adults, projected to decrease by over an eighth.

Projected number of households in Scotland by household type: 2014 and 2039

Projected number of households in Scotland by household type: 2012 and 2037

Source: Household Projections for Scotland, National Records of Scotland (NRS), 2014-based

Age group

The chart below shows the number of households in 2014 and the projected number in 2039, by the age of the head of household. Scotland's population is ageing, with a projected increase in the number of people in the older age groups. This trend is reflected in the household projections, with the greatest increases shown in households headed by people aged 65 or over (an increase of over a half, from 654,700 to 963,400 households, between 2014 and 2039). The number of households headed by someone aged 85 or over is projected to more than double from 81,000 to over 191,800.

The number of households headed by someone under 65 is also projected to increase, but much more slowly than households headed by older people. By 2039, numbers of such households are projected to increase by just two per cent, to around 1.80 million.

Projected number of households in Scotland by age of head of household, 2014 and 2039

Projected number of households in Scotland by age of head of household, 2012 and 2037

Source: Household Projections for Scotland, National Records of Scotland (NRS), 2014-based

Link
Household estimates and projections (National Records of Scotland website)

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