1. Introducing the household projections
1.1 Producing the household projections
1.1.1 Household projections are produced by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) every two years. This set of projections has been prepared up to 2035, a projection period of 25 years. The household projections incorporate information from the latest (2010-based) population projections and the 2010 and 2011 household estimates. Information from the 1991 and 2001 censuses is used to project trends in the types of household that people are living in. Information from a range of sources on residents in communal establishments, such as care homes or prisons, is also incorporated into the projections. The results of the household projections are presented for Scotland and Scottish local authorities. Further information on the data and methods used to produce the household projections is available in Section 5.
1.2 Interpreting the household projections
1.2.1 The household projections have limitations. A projection is a calculation showing what happens if particular assumptions are made. The household projections are based on the population projections and, as a result, assumptions used for the population projections, such as future migration, fertility and mortality, will have an effect on the household projections. The household projections also rely on projecting trends in household formation from the 1991 and 2001 censuses to 2035 and are not policy-based forecasts of what the Scottish Government expects to happen. They do not take into account social and economic factors that have changed since 2001, including imbalances between housing supply and demand, affordability and policies adopted by both central and local government. In addition, projections for small groups are likely to be less reliable that those for larger groups as they are based on data from smaller numbers of people (or households).
1.2.2 This report focuses on the 'principal projection', that is the projection based on the assumptions that we think are most likely to occur, but also includes sections on household projections prepared using alternative assumptions. These variant projections reflect possible effects of uncertainty in the assumptions made during the population and household projections. The variant household projections presented include variants based on the high and low migration population projection variants (Section 4.2). For the first time variants are also included that use an alternative assumption for the trends in household formation (Section 4.3). Section 4.4 looks at the possible effect of limited household formation that may occur if the current economic downturn continues.
1.3 Uses of the household projections
1.3.1 Household projections are mainly used for informing local authority decisions about future housing need and service provision (such as waste collection and community care). The projections feed into the local authorities' development plans, including assessments of housing need and demand for the future (Footnote 1). The projections are used to help inform policy development and for answering requests for information by Ministers, local authorities, academics, other organisations and the general public.
1.3.2 Household estimates and projections (Scotland and the UK) are used directly and indirectly in the production of certain statistics contained within the Scottish Government's Annual Government Expenditure and Revenues Scotland (GERS) publication and the quarterly Scottish National Accounts Project (SNAP) releases. They are used in SNAP as an auxiliary variable (alongside consumption data) in the production of Household Final Consumption Expenditure estimates by product. In turn, these expenditures inform the GERS publication in estimating revenues associated with consumption (e.g. VAT and duties). They are also used to estimate the expected distribution of Council Tax income.
1.3.3 Some local authorities use information from the household projections, such as the proportion of people of each age group living in communal establishments, in producing local projections of future household numbers.