This report presents projections of the number of households in Scotland from 2012 to 2037, based on the 2012-based population projections for Scotland.
Change in Scotland's Households
Figure 11: Projected increase in the number of households in Scotland from 2012 to 2037
Between 2012 and 2037, the number of households in Scotland is projected to increase by 17 per cent to 2.78 million – an average annual increase of about 15,800 households. Over the same period, Scotland’s population is projected to increase by nine per cent.
Much of the projected increase in households is, therefore, the result of more people living alone or in smaller households. Scotland’s population is ageing; the number of people aged 65 or over is increasing much faster than the number of children and younger adults. This has an impact on household structure as children tend to live in larger households and older people in smaller ones. The average household size is projected to decrease from 2.18 people in 2012 to 2.03 people in 2037.
Household Type in Scotland
Nearly a quarter of people aged 16 or over are projected to live alone (24 per cent)
in 2037, compared to 19 per cent in 2012. The number of households containing
just one adult is projected to increase from 849,200 (36 per cent of all households)
to around 1.15 million (41 per cent).
Households containing just one adult with children are projected to increase by
27 per cent, from 154,900 to 196,300 households. However, they make up around
seven per cent of all households throughout the projection period.
In both 2012 and 2037, almost a third of households (31 per cent) contain two
adults only. However, the number of such households is projected to rise from
731,300 in 2012 to 869,900 in 2037, an increase of 19 per cent.
In contrast, the number of larger households is projected to fall. Those containing
two or more adults with children are projected to decrease by 11 per cent by 2037.
This will take them from making up 19 per cent of all households in 2012 to 14 per
cent in 2037. There is also a projected decrease, of 17 per cent, in the number of
households containing three or more adults without children, taking their share of
the total from nine per cent in 2012 to six per cent in 2037.
Age of Head of Household in Scotland
There are projected increases in the numbers of households headed by people in
almost all age groups. The greatest increases are for households headed by
someone aged 65 or over, due to the ageing population. They are projected to
increase by 54 per cent between 2012 and 2037, to 966,600 households. The
increases are particularly large in the oldest age groups, with the number of
households headed by someone aged 85+ projected to more than double from
77,400 to 201,200.
In contrast, households headed by someone aged under 65 are projected to
increase by just three per cent, to around 1.82 million.
Older people tend to live in smaller households. By 2037 there are projected to be
488,200 people aged 65 and over living alone, an increase of 51 per cent from
323,700 in 2012. Increases are particularly large in the oldest age groups (85+)
where the number of people living alone is projected to be around two and a half
times higher by 2037 (an increase of 161 per cent).
Council Area Figures
The number of households in almost every Council area is projected to increase
over the projection period. The largest projected increases are in the City of
Edinburgh and Aberdeen City (39 and 35 per cent respectively). In contrast, there
are three Council areas where the number of households is projected to decrease;
these are Inverclyde (projected to decrease by 10 per cent), Argyll and Bute
(six per cent) and North Ayrshire (one per cent).
Variant projections
The publication also includes two sets of variant projections, based on population
projections using different assumptions about future migration. The percentage
increase in households between 2012 and 2037 is 13 per cent for the low migration
variant and 21 per cent for the high migration variant, compared to 17 per cent for
the principal projection.
The differences between the principal projection and the high and low migration
variants is greatest for the City of Edinburgh, Orkney Islands and Aberdeen City.
Differences from the previous household projections
The previous (2010-based) household projections were produced before the
2011 Census results became available. The information on household change was
based on changes between the 1991 and 2001 Censuses; since then, household
growth has been slower.
The current projections are lower than the previous projections, for Scotland as a
whole and for the majority of Council areas. The previous projections showed
growth of 23 per cent over a 25 year period; in the current projections, the
equivalent figure is 17 per cent.
The main differences are that the 2010-based projections showed large increases
in the number of young adults living in one-adult households (with or without
children), but this is no longer the case. A related change is that the current
projections show more households containing three or more adults, or two or more
adults with children, headed by someone aged 45 to 74. This is linked to long-term
trends and the economic downturn, amongst other factors. Since the start of the
downturn, increases in unemployment, reductions in new house building and a
constrained mortgage market have made it more difficult for young adults to afford
to live on their own or as a couple. Therefore, more young adults are living with
their parents or with other adults. This has led to a slower rate of growth in overall
household numbers.
The current household projections incorporate data from the 2011 Census and the
latest population projections. They also include data from more censuses than in
the past, as well as recent data from a household survey. This means current and
future household projections should reflect changes in household formation rates
more accurately, even between censuses.
Footnotes:
An interactive version of this figure which allows you to select any Council area can be found within the Household Projections for Scotland, 2012 based on National Records of Scotland website.
