2. The Population of Scotland
2.1 The estimated population of Scotland on 30 June 2009 was 5,194,000, the highest since 1979. This represents an increase of 25,500 on the previous year and of almost 140,000 compared with mid-2002, when the population hit its lowest level since just after the Second World War. In the twelve months to mid-2009, there was a net migration gain of 21,700 people, consisting of a net gain of 4,100 people from the rest of the UK, a net gain of 17,500 from overseas (including asylum seekers) and a net gain of 100 due to movements to and from the armed forces from the civilian population. Other changes (including changes in the prison population, and changes in the number of armed forces stationed in Scotland) amounted to a decrease of 800 people. There were 59,331 births in 2008-09 (very slightly higher than the previous year and the largest number since 1996-97) and 54,746 deaths (1 per cent fewer than the previous year). The number of births in the twelve months up to mid-2009 exceeded the number of deaths by 4,585. This is the largest gain in population due to natural change (births minus deaths) since 1991-92 and compares to a gain of 3,947 in 2007-08.
2.2 This is the seventh year in a row that the Scottish population has increased and most of the increase was because more people migrated into Scotland from overseas and the rest of the UK than left.
2.3 In 2008-09 around 45,400 people came to Scotland from England, Wales and Northern Ireland and 41,300 left Scotland to go in the opposite direction. The resulting net gain of 4,100 was less than the previous year’s 11,500 net gain because fewer people entered.
2.4 The overseas net gain of 17,500 came from an inflow of 42,700 and an outflow of 25,200. This compares with a net inflow of 7,700 the previous year. The difference is a result of more people coming to Scotland and fewer leaving: in the previous year, the inflow was 38,500 and the outflow 30,800. Estimating international migration is particularly difficult. The estimate is based primarily on the International Passenger Survey (IPS) which is a sample survey conducted at main airports and ports across the UK. The sample size for Scotland is very small (around 220 contacts in 2008- 09). Internationally, a migrant is defined as someone who changes country of usual residence for 12 months or more, so a short-term seasonal migrant worker will not be counted in the migration estimates or in the mid-year population estimates. More details about the migration data sources and definitions used can be found in Section 6.
2.5 For comparison purposes it is better to look at a time frame of longer than one year, as population change tends to fluctuate from year to year, particularly for smaller areas. Between mid-2001 and mid-2009, Scotland’s population increased by 2.6 per cent (+129,800) from 5.06 million to 5.19 million (Table 6 and Figure 1). Over the last 10 years, between mid-1999 and mid-2009, Scotland’s population increased by 2.4 per cent (+122,050) from 5.07 million (Table 7). Figure 2 shows that in recent years migration has been the main reason for population change.
Figure 1 Estimated population of Scotland, 1951-2009
Figure 2 Natural change and net migration, 1951-2009
2.6 Table 9 shows movements to and from the UK and overseas between mid-2008 and mid-2009 by age group. The main source of data for the overseas migration calculations is the International Passenger Survey but, because of its small sample size, an age and sex distribution is calculated from General Medical Practitioner (GP) registrations. The method used to estimate international migration is described in Section 6.
2.7 Migrants in to Scotland tend to be younger than the general population as Table 9 shows. Of in-migrants to Scotland, 49 per cent from the rest of the UK and 69 per cent of those from overseas were aged 16-34 years, yet in the resident population only 24 per cent were in this age group. Only 5 per cent of people coming to Scotland from the rest of the UK and 1 per cent of people entering from overseas were aged 65 and over. Scotland had a net gain of UK migrants in every age-group (except those aged 25-34) and international migrants to every age-group to 44.