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Population Projections Scotland (2006-based): Population Projections by Sex, Age and Administrative Area

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A National Statistics publication for Scotland

Contents

Main Points
1. Background
2. Results of the projection
2.1 Scotland
2.2 Council areas
2.3 NHS board areas
2.4 Age structure across Scotland
3. Comparisons with the 2004-based projections
4. High migration variant projection
5. Methodology and assumptions
5.1 Methodology
5.2 Base population
5.3 Projections software system and other small method changes
5.4 Fertility
5.5 Mortality
5.6 Migration
6. Uses and limitations of projections
7. Consequences of projections
8. Further information
Annex A
Annex B
Annex C
Annex D
Annex E
Annex F
9. Notes on Statistical Publications

List of Tables
Table A Components of projected population change for Council areas, 2006-2031
Table B Projected percentage change in population (2006-based), by broad age group and council areas, 2006-2031
Table 1 Projected population by council and NHS board area (2006-based), 2006-2031
Table 2 Projected population (2006-based) by sex and broad age group, council and NHS board areas, selected years
Table 3 Projected percentage change in population (2006-based), by broad age group, council and NHS board areas, selected years
Table 4 Projected births (2006-based), by council and NHS board areas, 2006-2031
Table 5 Comparison between 2004 and 2006-based population projections, by council and NHS board areas, 2006-2031
Table 6 Comparison between principal and high migration variant population projections, by Council and NHS board Areas, 2011-2031

Detailed Tables - for each administrative area by single year of age and sex are also available on the GROS website.

List of Figures
Figure 1 Estimated population of Scotland (2006-based), actual and projected, 1951- 2031
Figure 2a Projected percentage change in population, (2006-based), by Council area, 2006-2031
Figure 2b Projected percentage change in population (2006-based), by council area, 2006-2031
Figure 3a Projected percentage change in population, (2006-based), by NHS board area, 2006-2031 (Map)
Figure 3b Projected percentage change (2006-based), by NHS board area, 2006-2031
Figure 4a Projected percentage change in population aged 0-15 (2006-based), by council area, 2006-2031
Figure 4b Projected percentage change in population of working age (2006-based), by council area, 2006-2031
Figure 4c Projected percentage change in population of pensionable age (2006-based), by council area, 2006-2031
Figure 5a Projected percentage change in population aged 0-15 (2006-based), by NHS board area, 2006-2031
Figure 5b Projected percentage change in population of working age (2006-based), by NHS board area, 2006-2031
Figure 5c Projected percentage change in population aged (2006-based), by NHS board area, 2006-2031
Figure 6a Age structure of council areas in 2006: children, working age, and pensionable age (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
Figure 6b Projected age structure of council areas in 2031: children, working age, and pensionable age (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
Figure 7a Age structure of NHS board areas in 2006: children, working age, and pensionable age (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
Figure 7b Projected age structure of NHS board areas in 2031 (2006-based): children, working age, and pensionable age (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
Figure 8 Percentage difference between projected 2024 population using 2004-based projections and using 2006-based projections, by council area
Figure 9 Percentage change between 2004 and 2006-based population projections in 2024, by NHS board area
Figure 10a Projected percentage change in population under high migration variant projection (2006-based), by council area, 2006-2031
Figure 10b Projected percentage change in population under high migration variant projection (2006-based), by NHS board area, 2006-2031
Figure 11 Projected percentage change in births (2006-based), by council area, 2006-2031
Figure 12 Migration to and from outwith Scotland and to and from other council areas within Scotland

National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

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