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Population Projections Scotland (2006-based): Population Projections by Sex, Age and Administrative Area

4. High migration variant projection

4.1 Most of this paper concentrates on the "principal" projection. This uses assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration which are thought to be most likely to occur over the next 25 years. A number of "variant" projections are produced at Scotland level and, for the first time, one of these – the high migration variant – has been produced for council and NHS board areas. This variant projection uses the same fertility and mortality assumptions as the principal projection but assumes higher levels of net in-migration to Scotland. It should be noted that only moves to and from the rest of the UK and overseas are affected by this. The number of people moving between council and NHS board areas within Scotland does not change from the principal projection and so areas where the population is most affected by migration within Scotland will not change as much as those where international migration has the greater effect.

4.2 The high migration variant projection shows Scotland’s population rising from 5.12 million in 2006 to 5.63 million in 2031. This compares to an increase to 5.37 million in 2031 under the principal projection. Table 6 shows the projected population for each council and NHS board area under both the principal and high migration variant projections for selected years as well as the percentage difference between the two projections in 2031.

4.3 The chart at Figure 10a shows that the populations of 23 of the 32 council areas in Scotland are projected to increase and 9 to decrease by 2031 under the high migration variant projection. In general the largest increases and decreases occur in the same areas as under the principal projection but the size of the changes differ.

4.4 As in the principal projection, the council area projected to show the largest relative increase over this period is Perth & Kinross (+28 per cent). Edinburgh City (+27 per cent) shows the second biggest increase under this projection and West Lothian (+26 per cent), East Lothian (+24 per cent) and Aberdeenshire (+24 per cent) also show large increases in population - as they did under the principal projection. Again as in the principal projection, Inverclyde (-13 per cent) and East Dunbartonshire (-12 per cent) show the largest relative population decreases but Shetland (-3 per cent) and Aberdeen City (+1 per cent) no longer show such large decreases relative to other areas.

4.5 The populations in thirteen of the NHS board areas are projected to increase and only one to decrease (Shetland, -3 per cent) as can be seen in Figure 10b. As before, Lothian (+24 per cent), Borders (+20 per cent), Fife (+17 per cent) and Orkney (+15 per cent) show the biggest increases.

4.6 The final column in Table 6 shows that the high migration variant projection has the biggest relative impact on Aberdeen City (where the 2031 population is 11 per cent higher than under the principal projection), Edinburgh (9 per cent higher), Moray, Shetland and Eilean Siar (all 7 per cent higher). As Figure 12 shows, these are all areas which gain migrants from outwith Scotland.

Figure 10a Projected percentage change in population under high migration variant projection (2006-based), by council area, 2006-2031

Figure 10a Projected percentage change in population under high migration variant projection (2006-based), by council area, 2006-2031

Figure 10b Projected percentage change in population under high migration variant projection (2006-based), by NHS board area, 2006-2031

Figure 10b Projected percentage change in population under high migration variant projection (2006-based), by NHS board area, 2006-2031

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