Population Projections Scotland (2008-based)

Main Points

The key points in this paper, relating to the period between 2008 and 2033, are:

although the population of the whole of Scotland is projected to rise over the next 25 years before declining slowly, there are differences in this pattern across Scotland with some areas projected to increase in size and others to decrease;
the population of 19 of the 32 council areas in Scotland are projected to increase, while the population in the other 13 are projected to decrease. The council areas with the greatest projected increase in population are East Lothian (+33 per cent) and Perth & Kinross (+27 per cent). Inverclyde (-18 per cent) and East Dunbartonshire (-13 per cent) have the largest projected decreases;
Scotland’s population is projected to age and this is true for all administrative areas to a greater or lesser extent.
the number of children aged 0-15 is projected to decrease in 20 of the 32 council areas, with the largest percentage decreases in Shetland (-33 per cent) and Inverclyde (-29 per cent). The biggest increases are projected in East Lothian (+38 per cent) and Perth & Kinross (+24 per cent);
the population of working age¹ is projected to increase in 15 council areas and decrease in 17, increasing the most in East Lothian (+29 per cent) and decreasing the most in Inverclyde (-26 per cent);
the population of pensionable age² is projected to increase in all council areas, the largest increases being projected in Aberdeenshire (+65 per cent) and West Lothian (+59 per cent);
the high migration variant projection shows the projected population if Scotland were to gain larger numbers through migration than expected. The populations in 26 councils are expected to rise under this variant. The greatest increase is again projected in East Lothian (+38 per cent) and Perth & Kinross (+37 per cent) and the largest decrease again in Inverclyde (-14 per cent) and East Dunbartonshire (-11 per cent); and
the low migration variant projection shows the projected population if Scotland were to gain smaller numbers through migration than expected. The populations in 15 councils are expected to rise under this variant. The greatest increase is again projected in East Lothian (+29 per cent) and Perth & Kinross (+25 per cent) and the largest decrease again in Inverclyde (-20 per cent) and East Dunbartonshire (-17 per cent).

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