Published on 26 October 2011
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Main Points
1. Background
2. Uses and limitations of projections
3. Summary of results
4. The base population and assumptions used in the projections
5. Comparison with previous projections
6. Scotland's position within the United Kingdom
7. Scotland's position within Europe
8. Long term and variant projections
9. Further information
Annex A Fertility assumptions
Annex B Mortality assumptions
Annex C Migration assumptions
Annex D Variant projections and assumptions
List of Tables
Table A Projected age structure of Scotland's population (percentage of total population)
Table B Projected number of dependents per 100 population of working age, Scotland
Table 1 Projected population of Scotland (2010-based): 2010-2080
Table 2 Projected components of population change, Scotland, 2010-2035
Table 3 Projected population of Scotland (2010-based), by age group, 2010-2035
Table 4 Projected number of dependents per 100 population of working age, Scotland, 2010-2035
Table 5a Projected number of births1, Scotland, 2014-2035
Table 5b Projected number of deaths1, Scotland, 2014-2035
Table 5c Projected population, Scotland, 2015-2035
Table 6 Projected population of Scotland (2010-based), by sex and age group, 2010-2035
Table 7 Principal and selected variant projections (2010-based), Scotland, 2010-2080
Table 8 Projected population change for selected variant projections (2010-based), Scotland, 2010-2035
Table A1 Assumptions of long-term average completed family size, 2008 and 2010-based projections
Table D1 Assumptions for the 2010-based principal and nine variant projections for Scotland
Table D2 Variants and Scenario
List of Figures
Figure 1 Estimated population of Scotland, actual and projected, 1951-2085
Figure 2 Births and deaths, actual1 and projected2, Scotland, 1951-2035
Figure 3 Estimated and projected net migration, Scotland, 1951-2035
Figure 4 The projected percentage change in Scotland's population by age group, 2010-2035
Figure 5 Expectation of life at birth, Scotland, 1983-2035
Figure 6 Actual and projected total population compared with previous projections, 1983-2035
Figure 7 Actual and projected natural change (births minus deaths) compared with previous projections, 1983-2035
Figure 8 Actual and projected net migration compared with previous projections, 1983-2035
Figure 9 Comparison of population change for UK countries, 2010-2035
Figure 10 Projected percentage population change in selected European countries, 2010-2035
Figure 11 Actual and projected total population of Scotland, under the 2010-based principal and selected variant projections, 1981-2085
Figure 12 Percentage change in age structure under the 2010-based principal and selected variant projections, 2010-2035
Figure 13 Average age of Scotland's population under the 2010-based principal and selected variant projections, 2010-2035
Figure 14 Dependency ratios (dependents per 100 working age population) under the 2010-based principal and selected variant projections, 2010-2035
Figure A1 Scotland age specific fertility, 1983-2010
Figure B1 Period Expectations of life (Eol) for Scotland less respective expectation of life for UK - for males at birth and ages 20, 40, 60 and 80, 1983-2010
Figure B2 Period expectations of life (Eol) for Scotland less respective expectation of life for UK - for females at birth and ages 20, 40, 60 and 80, 1983-2010
Figure C1 Estimated net migration, Scotland, 1951-2010
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