1.1 The Office for National Statistics (ONS), on behalf of the Registrars General, prepares population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries. This paper presents the main results of the latest, 2010-based, projection for Scotland and outlines the fertility, mortality and migration assumptions used in its preparation. Some additional tables showing more detailed figures for Scotland can be found on the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website whilst full results of the (2010-based) projections can be found on the ONS website.
1.2 The results in this paper concentrate on the period up to 2035, although they occasionally refer to up to 75 years ahead and ONS makes available projections up to 2110. However, projections this far ahead become increasingly uncertain.
1.3 As well as producing the main principal projection, ONS also produces variant projections using alternative plausible assumptions. At the time this paper was written (26 October 2011) ONS had published nine variant projections on the ONS website. Additional variants will follow in November 2011. More information on the variant projections is given in Section 8.
1.4 Population projections were assessed by the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) in May 2011, along with other population and demographic statistics for Scotland. These statistics can now be designated as National Statistics, subject to meeting the requirements set out in the assessment report[3]. One of the five requirements set out by the UKSA was 'Review the summary text in the population projections release to convey more prominently the nature of projections and their difference from forecasts, to aid user understanding', and the following section addresses this.