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Projected Population of Scotland (2010-based)

5. Comparison with previous projections

5.1. The last set of projections, published in October 2009, were based on the mid-year population estimates for 2008. Previous projections were based on the mid-2006 population estimates, and the mid-2004 population estimates. The key changes from previously published projections in terms of births, deaths and total population are shown in Table 5a, Table 5b and Table 5c respectively. Section 5.5 looks at the differences in the migration assumptions between the projections. National projections are usually produced every two years, but with the 2011 Census the pattern may change slightly in coming years, as has happened in the past when census results have been published.

5.2. Figure 6 compares the 2010-based projection with previous projections. It shows that the level of the population under the latest projection is higher than for earlier projections and that the population is projected to continue to rise over the next 25 years. Looking further ahead, the population is projected to rise continually until 2110, whereas the 2004-based, 2006-based and 2008-based projections all showed the population declining at some stage during the projection period.

Figure 6 Actual and projected total population compared with previous projections, 1983-2035

Figure 6 Actual and projected total population compared with previous projections, 1983-2035

5.3. The difference between the projections is due in part to the fact that the population in mid-2010 (on which the projections are based) was around 10,700 higher than the 2008-based projections assumed, and in part to the different assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration.

5.4. Figure 7 compares the natural change (the difference between the number of births and deaths) underlying the 2010-based projection with that underlying previous projections. Looking at the first 25 years of the projection period and comparing with the 2008-based projections, the number of births is projected to be higher (by an average of around 2,700 per year) and the number of deaths also slightly higher (by an average of around 1,200 per year). As a result there is a higher natural increase for the 2010-based projections from 2011 onwards. More information on the reasons for the differences is given in Section 4 and in Annex A, Annex B and Annex C.

Figure 7 Actual and projected natural change (births minus deaths) compared with previous projections, 1983-2035

Figure 7 Actual and projected natural change (births minus deaths) compared with previous projections, 1983-2035

5.5. As Figure 8 demonstrates, the long-term migration assumption has been increased from +12,000 in the 2008-based projections to +17,500. This is largely because there has continued to be relatively high net in-migration to Scotland since the previous set of projections (+21,700 in 2008-09 and +25,000 in 2009-10). Although migration is assumed to reduce from current levels (notably because migration from Eastern Europe is unlikely to continue to be so high), the previous assumption no longer seems plausible. Migration levels have been so variable in recent years that a trend is hard to identify, and these figures should be treated with caution. The migration variants in Section 8 show what would happen to the population under various different levels of migration.

Figure 8 Actual and projected net migration compared with previous projections, 1983-2035

Figure 8 Actual and projected net migration compared with previous projections, 1983-2035

5.6. Table A and Table B below summarise the differences between the 2010-based and the 2008-based projections. The difference in results for the projected age structure of Scotland is fairly small, but the 2010-based projections show a slightly smaller percentage of the population to be of pensionable age by 2035. There are slightly higher percentages of children and working age for most years of the projection period for the 2010-based projections although the difference is slightly smaller. As a result the projected number of dependents per 100 of working age is lower in 2035 for the 2010-based projections than in the 2008-based projections.

Table A Projected age structure of Scotland's population (percentage of total population)

Age Group 2008-based 2010-based
2010 2035 2010 2035
Children 17% 16% 17% 16%
Working age 63% 60% 63% 61%
Pension age 20% 24% 20% 23%

 

Table B Projected number of dependents per 100 population of working age, Scotland

Age Group 2008-based 2010-based
2010 2035 2010 2035
Children 28 27 28 27
Pensioners 32 40 32 38
All dependents 60 67 60 64

 

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