1.1 This paper summarises the Registrar General for Scotland’s mid-2012 based population projections for the Council and NHS Board areas of Scotland. The projections are consistent with the 2012-based national population projections, prepared by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on behalf of the Registrars General for the constituent countries of the UK.
1.2 As well as producing the main principal projection ONS also produce variant projections using alternative plausible assumptions. This paper concentrates on the principal projection but also includes a section on variant projections. In addition to a principal projection seven variant projections have been made available for the Council and NHS Board areas of Scotland.
1.3 The composition of the NHS Board areas in terms of Council areas is summarised in the table below. Boundary changes, effective from 1 April 2014, mean that the boundaries for all 14 NHS Board areas are now aligned with Council area boundaries. In most NHS Board areas the impact of the boundary changes on the population estimates are small. However, NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde and NHS Lanarkshire are exceptions. Based on unpublished National Records of Scotland mid-2012 population estimates, had the boundary changes taken effect on the 30 June 2012 NHS Greater Glasgow would have lost approximately 6.5 per cent of its population to NHS Lanarkshire and NHS Lanarkshire would have lost 0.3 per cent of its population to NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde. The tables presented in this report show information for the new NHS Board areas for all years. Projections for the old NHS Board boundaries are available within the Detailed Tables (2006 NHS Board areas) of the Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2012-based) publication, on the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website.
| NHS Board area | Council area |
|---|---|
| Ayrshire & Arran | East Ayrshire, North Ayrshire, South Ayrshire |
| Borders | Scottish Borders |
| Dumfries & Galloway | Dumfries & Galloway |
| Fife | Fife |
| Forth Valley | Clackmannanshire, Falkirk, Stirling |
| Grampian | Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire, Moray |
| Greater Glasgow & Clyde | East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Glasgow City, Inverclyde, Renfrewshire, West Dunbartonshire |
| Highland | Highland, Argyll & Bute |
| Lanarkshire | North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire |
| Lothian | East Lothian, City of Edinburgh, Midlothian, West Lothian |
| Orkney | Orkney Islands |
| Shetland | Shetland Islands |
| Tayside | Angus, Dundee City, Perth & Kinross |
| Western Isles | Eilean Siar |
1.4 The projections in this paper are based on the 2012 mid-year population estimates published by National Records of Scotland (NRS) on the 8 August 2013 which take account of information from the 2011 Census. Further information can be found in the Mid-2011 and Mid-2012 Population Estimates Scotland publication on the NRS website. The revised population and migration estimates published on 17 December 2013 within the Mid-2002 to Mid-2010 Revision publication (available on the NRS website) were used to set the assumptions for the Council and NHS board areas. The projections for administrative areas are consistent with the national population projections for Scotland produced by Office for National Statistics (ONS) for National Records of Scotland.
1.5 Population projections were assessed by the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) in May 2011, along with other population and demographic statistics for Scotland and have been designated as National Statistics. The assessment report and letter of designation can be found within the Assessment Reports section of their website.
This round of sub-national population projections has been prepared up to 2037 (25 years ahead). It should be remembered when looking at these results that they are mainly trend based and do not take account of policy initiatives. It is also important to note that projections become more uncertain the further ahead they go, especially for smaller areas, as these populations are affected more by the migration assumptions. The uses and the limitations of these projections are described in more detail in Section 2.
1.7 The results of this set of projections agree with the projected Scotland level totals from the National Population Projections which were published on the 6 November 2013 on the NRS website. The Scotland level assumptions used to produce the National Population Projections were based on population estimates rolled forward from the 2001 Census which did not take into account information from the 2011 Census but the 2012 mid-year estimates take account of the 2011 Census results and they were available in time to be used as the base population. However, for the sub-national population projections the revised population estimates for 2002 to 2010 were available and these were used to set the migration assumptions for administrative areas.
1.8 When setting the migration assumptions to be used to produce these projections no adjustment was made for unattibutable population change, which was a component of the revised population estimates in the Mid-2002 to Mid- 2010 Revision publication (available on the NRS website). For the 2002 to 2010 revised population estimates, once estimates of the identifiable differences between the rolled-forward population estimates from the 2001 Census and the new 2011 estimates based on the 2011 Census had been identified the remaining difference was allocated to a general 'unattributable' component rather than arbitrarily, and potentially incorrectly, assigned to specific causes. More information on the unattributable component for these years can be found in the methodology paper that was published alongside the revised mid-2002 to mid-2010 estimates, both of which can be found within the Mid-Year Population Estimates section of the NRS website. There are several reasons why an unattributable component has not been used in these projections including: