Correction: 30 July 2014

A correction has been made to the sub-national high migration population variant projection. This correction has not had any impact on the high migration projection at the Scotland level. There has also been no impact on the principal population projection or any of the other variant projections either at the Scotland or sub-national level.

An error was found in the age sex distribution used for assumed migrants in the sub national high migration population projection. The impact of the error on the projected population totals for most areas becomes larger as the population is projected away from the base year. The largest percentage correction due to the error is less than 0.3 per cent by 2037 and is for Orkney Council area. There has also been an impact on the projected age-sex distribution of the high migration projected populations from 2013- 2037 for each Council area and NHS Board area (both April 2014 and 2006 boundaries). The corrected detailed tables for the high migration variant can be found in the detailed tables section of the population projections section on the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website. Tables showing the impact of this correction for the projected population totals and age sex-distributions for Council areas and NHS Board areas are available in the detailed tables section of the web. We have also corrected Table 6 of this publication, no corrections were necessary to the text of the publication.

Limitations of Projections

When using a projection it is important to note some key limitations.

• A projection is a calculation showing what happens under certain assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration.
• The assumptions are based on past trends and do not take account of any future changes that may occur as a result of policy initiatives but may reflect the past impact of policy and economic changes. These projections are not, therefore, forecasts of what the government expects to happen based on policy.

Main points

The main points in this report, relating to the 25 year period between 2012 and 2037 are:

Principal projection

• The population of Scotland is projected to rise by 9 per cent over the next 25 years, from 5.31 million in 2012 to 5.78 million by 2037, and continue to rise into the future. But this pattern is not to be experienced in all areas of Scotland. Some areas are projected to increase in size while others to decrease.
• The population of 20 of the 32 Council areas in Scotland are projected to increase while the population in the other 12 are projected to decrease. The Council areas with the greatest projected increase in population are Aberdeen City and City of Edinburgh (both +28 per cent) followed by Perth & Kinross (+24 per cent). Inverclyde (-19 per cent) and Argyll & Bute (-13 per cent) have the largest projected decreases.
• Scotland's population is projected to age and this is true for all administrative areas to a greater or lesser extent.
• The number of children aged 0-15 is projected to increase in 12 of Scotland’s 32 Council areas, with the biggest increases projected for Aberdeen City (+45 per cent) and East Lothian ( +28 per cent). The biggest decreases are projected for Inverclyde (-32 per cent) and Eilean Siar (-28 per cent).
• The population of working age¹ is projected to increase in 13 Council areas and decrease in 19, increasing the most in City of Edinburgh (+28 per cent) and decreasing the most in Inverclyde (-29 per cent).
• The population of pensionable age1 is projected to increase in all Council areas, with the largest increases being projected in West Lothian (+47 per cent) and Shetland Islands (+44 per cent), and the smallest increase is projected in Dundee City (+6 per cent).

Variant projections

• For Scotland, the high migration variant (+13 per cent) projects the largest increase in the population, followed the high fertility variant (+12 per cent) and high life expectancy variant (+10 per cent), the principal projection (+9 per cent), then the low life expectancy variant (+7 per cent), low fertility variant (+6 per cent), low migration variant (+4 per cent), and lastly the zero migration variant (-1 per cent). The variant projections for most Council areas follow a similar pattern.
• The high migration variant shows the projected population if Scotland were to gain larger numbers through migration than assumed in the principal projection. The population in 25 of the Council areas is projected to rise under this variant. The greatest increase is projected for City of Edinburgh (+38 per cent), closely followed by Aberdeen City (+36 per cent) and Perth & Kinross (+30 per cent). The largest decrease is again projected for Inverclyde (-18 per cent), followed by Argyll & Bute (-9 per cent).
• The low migration variant shows the projected population if Scotland were to gain smaller numbers through migration than assumed in the principal projection. The population of 16 Council areas are projected to rise under this variant. Again the greatest increase is projected for Aberdeen City, City of Edinburgh and East Lothian ( all +20 per cent), and the largest decreases in Inverclyde (-22 per cent) and Argyll & Bute (-19 per cent).
• The zero migration variant projection shows the projected population if migration was not to affect the total population of Scotland. Under this variant the population of 11 Council areas is projected to rise, and the largest increases are projected for West Lothian (+6 per cent), Shetland Islands (+3 per cent), Clackmannanshire(+3 per cent) and Midlothian (+3 per cent). The largest decreases are projected for Eilean Siar (-9 per cent), Argyll & Bute and South Ayrshire (both -8 per cent).
• The fertility variants suggest what might happen to the population if fertility levels were higher, or lower than assumed in the principal projection. Under the high fertility variant, the population of 25 Council areas are projected to increase, with the largest increases projected for Aberdeen City and City of Edinburgh (both +32 per cent ), and the largest decrease projected is for Inverclyde (-17 per cent). Under the low fertility variant, the population of 16 Council areas are projected to increase. City of Edinburgh is projected to have the largest increase (+26 per cent), and Inverclyde is projected to experience the biggest population decline (- 21 per cent).
• The life expectancy variants suggest what might happen to the population if mortality rates improved more, or less than assumed in the principal projection. Under the high life expectancy variant, the population of 22 Council areas are projected to increase, with the largest increases projected for Aberdeen City (+30 per cent) and largest decrease projected for Inverclyde (-18 per cent). The low life expectancy variant projects the population of 17 Council areas to increase, and the same areas are projected to experience the biggest increases and decreases as under the high life expectancy variant: City of Edinburgh and Aberdeen City (both +27 per cent) are projected to show the largest increase, while Inverclyde (-21 per cent) is projected to show the largest decrease.

Footnotes:

1. Working age and pensionable age populations based on State Pension Age (SPA) for a given year. Between 2012 and 2018, SPA will change from 65 years for men and 61 years for women, to 65 years for both sexes. Then between 2019 and 2020, SPA will change from 65 years to 66 years for both men and women. Between 2034 and 2046, SPA will increase in two stages from 66 years to 68 years for both sexes. This is based on SPA under the 2011 Pensions Act.