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Projected Population of Scotland (2012-based)
Main Points
The key points in this report are as follows:
Principal projection
- The population of Scotland is projected to rise from 5.31 million in 2012 to 5.52 million in 2022, and to continue to rise to 5.78 million in 2037 - an increase of 9 per cent over the 25 year period.
- Over the next decade, 28 per cent of the projected increase in Scotland's population can be attributed to natural increase (more births than deaths) while 72 per cent of the increase is due to assuming continuing inward net migration to Scotland.
- Between 2012 and 2022 the number of children aged under 16 is projected to increase by 4 per cent from 0.91 to 0.95 million. It is then projected to increase to 0.96 million by 2037 (a 5 per cent increase compared with the 2012 estimate).
- The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by around 28 per cent in the first ten years of the projection period, from 0.42 million in 2012 to 0.53 million in 2022. It is then projected to continue rising, reaching 0.78 million in 2037 - an increase of 86 per cent over the 25 year period.
- The number of people of working age[1] is projected to increase from 3.35 million in 2012 to 3.51 million in 2022 (an increase of 5 per cent). The projected working age population then decreases to 3.48 million by 2037 (an overall increase of 4 per cent from the 2012 estimate).
- The number of people of pensionable age1 is projected to decrease from 1.05 million in 2012 to 1.02 million in 2020 (a decrease of 3 per cent).
It is then projected to rise, reaching 1.34 million in 2034. It then remains relatively constant and is projected to be 1.33 million by 2037 (an increase of 27 per cent from the 2012 estimate).
- The dependency ratio[2] - the ratio of people aged under 16 and over pensionable age to those of working age - is projected to rise from around 59 per 100 in 2012 to 66 per 100 in 2037. This rise is mainly due to the increase in the population of state pension age.
- The populations of the other countries in the UK are also projected to increase with England's population projected to increase by 16 per cent, Northern Ireland's population by 10 per cent and Wales's population by 8 per cent between 2012 and 2037.
Variant projections
- Under each of the alternative scenarios illustrated by the nine available variant projections, Scotland's population is projected to increase between 2012 and 2030. All but the natural change only variant show an increase over the first 25 years of the projection.
- All the variant projections show Scotland's population ageing significantly over the next 25 years with the number of people aged 75+ projected to increase by between 71 per cent and 101 per cent under these variant assumptions.
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