1.1 The Office for National Statistics (ONS), on behalf of the National Records of Scotland (NRS), prepares population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries. This publication presents the main results of the latest, 2012-based, projection for Scotland and outlines the fertility, mortality and migration assumptions used in its preparation. Some additional tables showing more detailed figures for Scotland can be found within the Projected Population for Scotland section of the NRS website whilst full results of the (2012-based) projections can be found on the ONS website.
1.2 The results in this paper concentrate on the period up to 2037, although they occasionally refer to up to 75 years ahead and ONS makes available projections up to 2112. However, projections this far ahead become increasingly uncertain.
1.3 As well as producing the main principal projection, ONS also produces variant projections using alternative plausible assumptions. At the time this paper was written (06 November 2013) ONS had published 9 variant projections on the ONS website. Additional variants will follow in December 2013. More information on the variant projections is given in Section 8.
1.4 The base population used in these projections are the 2012 based mid-year estimates rolled forward from the 2011 Census. The assumptions used in these projections use the old mid-year estimates series rolled-forward from the 2001 Census. While the level of the population changed the trends did not. More information on the differences between the 2011 Census and the mid-year estimates for 2001 are explained in the 2011 Census reconciliation report on the NRS website. More information on the assumptions used in the projections is available in the Annexes at the end of this publication (Annex A, Annex B and Annex C).
1.5 Population projections were assessed by the UK Statistics Authority in May 2011, along with other population and demographic statistics for Scotland. These statistics have been designated as National Statistics, as they meet the requirements set out in the assessment report[3]. One of the five requirements set out by the UK Statistics Authority was 'Review the summary text in the population projections release to convey more prominently the nature of projections and their difference from forecasts, to aid user understanding', and the following section and additions to the main points and news release addresses this.