The long-term assumption for net migration to Scotland is +15,500 each year compared with +17,500 in the 2010-based projections. This decrease is due to lower levels of migration recorded from 2010-2012. Figure C1 illustrates the trends since 1951.
Figure C1: Natural Change and Net migration1, 1952 to 2012
The long-term migration assumptions comprise of +3,500 from cross-border migration and +12,000 from international migration. New methods have been used to model migration trends in setting the migration assumptions for the 2012 based projections. More information on the review and new methods can be found on the ONS website.
Migration assumptions for the initial years are designed to reflect recent rates of migration, and gradually converge to the long-term assumptions. The long-term migration assumption is projected from 2018-2019 onwards.
The assumptions for total net migration are:
|
+ 13,400 |
|
+ 13,700 |
|
+ 14,100 |
|
+ 14,400 |
|
+ 14,800 |
|
+ 15,100 |
|
+ 15,500 |
The high and low migration variants assume long-term net migration to Scotland to be 8,500 persons higher or lower than the principal assumptions (that is, + 24,000 and +7000).