1.1 This paper summarises the Registrar General for Scotland's mid-2010 based population projections for the Council and NHS Board areas of Scotland. The projections are consistent with the 2010-based national population projections, prepared by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on behalf of the Registrars General for the constituent countries of the UK.
1.2 As well as producing the main principal projection ONS also produce variant projections using alternative plausible assumptions. This paper concentrates on the principal projection but also includes a section on variant projections. This is the first time seven variant projections have been made available for the Council and NHS Board areas of Scotland at the same time as the principal projection.
1.3 The projections in this paper are based on the 2010 mid-year population estimates published on 27 April 2011.
1.4 Population projections were assessed by the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) in May 2011, along with other population and demographic statistics for Scotland. These statistics can now be designated as National Statistics, subject to meeting the requirements set out in the assessment report[3]. One of the five requirements set out by the UKSA was 'Review the summary text in the population projections release to convey more prominently the nature of projections and their difference from forecasts, to aid user understanding', and Section 2 addresses this.
1.5 This round of sub-national projections has been prepared up to 2035 (25 years ahead). Small changes have been made to the method used to produce the projections and these are explained in Section 6. It should be remembered when looking at these results that they are mainly trend-based and do not take account of policy initiatives. It is also important to note that projections become more uncertain the further ahead they go, especially for smaller areas, as these populations are affected more by the migration assumptions. The uses and the limitations of these projections are described in more detail in Section 2.