Projected Population of Scotland (2006-based)

The Key points in this report are:

Principal projection

the population of Scotland is projected to rise from 5.12 million in 2006 to a high of 5.37 million in 2031 before slowly declining, falling below 5 million in around 2076;
the number of children aged under 16 is projected to decrease by 7 per cent from 0.92 million in 2006 to 0.86 million in 2031;
the number of people of working age¹ is projected to increase slightly from 3.21 million in 2006 to 3.23 million in 2031 (an increase of around 0.4 per cent);
the number of people of pensionable age² is projected to rise by around 31 per cent from 0.98 million in 2006 to 1.29 million in 2031;
the number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by around 81 per cent from 0.38 million in 2006 to 0.69 million in 2031;
the dependency ratio – the ratio of persons aged under 16 or over pensionable age to those of working age - is projected to rise from around 59 per 100 in 2006 to 67 per 100 working age population in 2031;
while Scotland’s population is projected to fall from 2031 the populations of the other three countries in the UK are projected to continue rising, England and Wales for the entire projection period but for Northern Ireland the population is projected to peak by around mid-century and then slowly decline.

Variant projections

under each of the alternative scenarios illustrated by the seven variant projections Scotland’s population is projected to rise initially; however, under all but two of the variants (high migration and high fertility) the population begins to decline within the 75 year period covered in this report;
all the variant projections show Scotland’s population ageing significantly over the next 25 years with the number of people aged 75+ projected to increase by between 71 per cent and 91 per cent under these assumptions;
under the natural change only variant projection (which assumes net zero migration at every age) Scotland’s population is projected to fall by 0.06 million to 5.06 million by 2031.