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Projected Population of Scotland (2008-based)

A National Statistics publication for Scotland logoThis document is also available in pdf format (397k)

Published on 21 October 2009

A National Statistics publication for Scotland

National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

Contents

Main Points

1. Background
2. Summary of results
3. The base population and assumptions used in the projections
4. Comparison with previous projections
5. Scotland's position within the United Kingdom
6. Scotland's position within Europe
7. Long term and variant projections
8. Further information

Annex A Fertility assumptions
Annex B Mortality assumptions
Annex C Migration assumptions
Annex D Variant projections and assumptions

List of Tables

Table A Projected age structure of Scotland's population (percentage of total population)
Table B Projected number of dependents per 100 population of working age, Scotland
Table 1 Projected population of Scotland (2008-based): 2008-2078
Table 2 Projected components of population change, Scotland: 2008-2033
Table 3 Projected population of Scotland (2008-based), by age group: 2008-2033
Table 4 Projected number of dependents per 100 population: 2008-2033
Table 5a Projected number of births1 (2008-based), Scotland: 2013-2033
Table 5b Projected number of deaths1 (2008-based), Scotland: 2013-2033
Table 5c Projected population (2008-based), Scotland: 2013-2033
Table 6 Projected population of Scotland (2008-based), by sex and age group: 2008-2033
Table 7 Principal and selected variant projections (2008-based), Scotland: 2008-2078
Table 8 Projected population change for selected variant projections (2008-based), Scotland: 2008-2033
Table A1 Assumptions of long-term average completed family size 2006 and 2008-based projections
Table D1 Assumptions for the 2008-based principal and seven variant projections for Scotland
Table D2 Variants and Scenario

List of Figures

Figure 1 Estimated population of Scotland, actual and projected, 1951-2083
Figure 2 Births and deaths, actual1 and projected, Scotland, 1951-2033
Figure 3 Estimated and projected net migration, Scotland, 1951-2033
Figure 4 The projected percentage change in Scotland's population by age group, 2008-2033
Figure 5 Expectation of life at birth, Scotland, 1983-2033
Figure 6 Actual and Projected total population compared with previous projections, 1983-2033
Figure 7 Actual and Projected Natural Change (Births minus Deaths) compared with previous projections, 1983-2033
Figure 8 Actual and Projected Migration compared with previous projections, 1983-2033
Figure 9 Comparison of population change for UK countries, 2008-2033
Figure 10 Projected Percentage Population Change in Selected European Countries, 2008-2033
Figure 11 Actual and projected total population Scotland, under the 2008-based principal and selected variant projections, 1983-2083
Figure 12 Percentage change in age structure under the 2008-based principal and selected variant projections, 2008-2033
Figure 13 Average age of Scotland’s population under the 2008-based principal and selected variant projections, 2008-2033
Figure 14 Dependency Ratios (dependents per 100 working age population) under the 2008-based principal and selected variant projections, 2008-2033

Figure A1 Scotland Age Specific Fertility 1983-2008
Figure B1 Period expectations of life (Eol) for Scotland less respective expectation of life for UK - for males at birth and ages 20, 40, 60 and 80
Figure B2 Period expectations of life (Eol) for Scotland less respective expectation of life for UK - for females at birth and ages 20, 40, 60 and 80
Figure C1 Estimated net migration, Scotland, 1951-2008

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