The long term assumption for net migration to Scotland is +12,000 each year compared with +8,500 in the 2006-based projections. This increase stems from the continuing high levels of migration observed since around 2003 compared with previous years. Figure C1 illustrates the trends since 1951.
Figure C1 Estimated net migration, Scotland, 1951-2008
The long term assumptions comprise +6,500 from cross-border migration and +5,500 from international migration. The cross-border assumptions are derived from the average of moves recorded through the National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) system over the last 10 years. The international migration assumption is based largely on International Passenger Survey data (IPS).
Migration assumptions for the initial years are designed to reflect recent rates of migration, and gradually converge to the long-term assumptions.
The assumptions for total net migration are:
These reflect recent migration data and also include an additional allowance for migrants from the A8 countries in Eastern Europe which joined the European Union in 2004.