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Scotland's Population 2001: The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends

CHAPTER 1 – OVERVIEW

The demographic issues facing Scotland at the beginning of the 21st century are very different from those facing Scotland 50 years ago. Although the overall population is very similar to what it was 50 years ago at just over 5 million, this apparent stability masks big changes in the age structure and geographical distribution of the population within Scotland. The population is now considerably older than fifty years ago, with half the population aged over 38 years in 2001 and ten per cent aged over 71 years compared with 31 years and 64 years, respectively, in 1951; while there has been a shift away from west central Scotland to many areas in eastern and rural Scotland.

Scotland’s population on 30 June 2001 was 5,064,200. The number of births recorded in 2001 was 52,527, while deaths totalled 57,382. The number of births and deaths were both the lowest ever-recorded in Scotland. There were 301 stillbirths and 290 deaths of children aged under 1 (infant deaths) registered in 2001, both at historically low levels. 29,621 couples were married in Scotland in 2001, the second lowest total ever recorded, while the 10,631 divorces processed was the lowest total in twenty years.

Some key facts are:

Population

1. Scotland’s population reached a peak in 1974 and since then has been on a gradually declining trend, although with some fluctuations.

2. We are projecting a gradual fall in population to continue.

3. Scotland is the only country within the UK with recent and projected declines in population, and there are relatively few countries in the world which are currently declining in population.

4. Scotland has recorded a natural decrease (an excess of deaths over births), since 1997, while net migration loss has reduced.

5. The natural decrease is projected to continue to grow and is the main factor in the projected population decline.

6. Scotland’s population is ageing (and is projected to continue ageing) with higher proportions in the older age groups and smaller proportions in the younger age groups.

7. The numbers of children have reached a new low and, despite the losses through death and migration for people born in earlier years, the population aged under 1 is now lower than for any other single age up to 60.

8. The distribution of population within Scotland is changing. In general, the larger urban areas (except Edinburgh) are declining, and many areas around the bigger cities and some rural areas are increasing in population.

Births

9. Birth rates in Scotland are lower than in any other country in the UK, and we are projecting this to continue, but the rates are similar to the average for European countries, some of which (Spain, Italy, Germany, Austria and Greece) have lower birth rates than Scotland.

10. Falling birth rates reflect the fact that women are having fewer children and having them later and as a consequence average completed family size fell below two for women born after 1953.

11. The proportion of births to unmarried parents is continuing to increase, but most births are jointly registered by parents living at the same address.

Deaths

12. Death rates have fallen significantly in Scotland since 1981, but less rapidly than most other countries of the UK.

13. Stillbirths, perinatal and infant mortality rates continue to fall and are at historically low levels, but remain above the EU average.

14. Mortality rates are falling for both men and women, but male life expectancy at birth has remained 4-6 years less than that for women over the last 50 years.

15. The main causes of death in Scotland are cancers and heart disease; over the last decade there has been a big fall in the latter but not in the former.

Migration

16. Net emigration from Scotland is much lower than 40 years ago and even 15 years ago.

17. Recent 2001 Census results suggest that net emigration is more likely to be weighted towards males and the younger age groups than previously thought.

18. The pattern of net migration between Scotland and the rest of the UK varies markedly by age group for both males and females, with a net inflow peaking at age 19 and a net outflow peaking at age 23.

19. Moves between Health Board areas within Scotland are highest for males and females in their twenties and thirties, with large peaks at student ages (18–22).

Marriages, divorces and adoptions

20. The number of marriages has continued to fall, with the average age of first marriage continuing to increase, and a higher proportion of marriages involving people who have been married previously.

21. Civil marriages account for some 40 per cent of all marriages in Scotland, double the proportion in the early 1960s.

22. The number of divorces, while much higher than 30 years ago, has decreased slightly over the past decade.

23. The number of adoptions is 40 per cent lower than 10 years ago and is the second lowest total, after 2000, since 1931.

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