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Scotland's Population 2001: The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends

CHAPTER 2 – POPULATION

The latest estimate of Scotland’s population (for 30 June 2001) is 5,064,200. Children aged 15 and under accounted for 19 per cent of the population, people of working age (16-59F/64M) 62 per cent, and people of pensionable age (60F/65M+) 19 per cent.

Over the period 1981-2001 the main factor leading to population decline was net emigration from Scotland; but the level of net emigration has fallen during the latter part of this period (even allowing for the additional migration loss implied by the recent 2001 Census results). The biggest impact on population change is now declining births. Deaths have fallen too but much more slowly. In 1981 there were 5,000 more births than deaths and 6,000 more in 1991, but by 2001 deaths exceeded births by nearly 4,800. A result of improving mortality is that people are living longer, resulting in an ageing population. The number of children has reached a new low and the population aged under 1 is now lower than for any other single age up to 60. In contrast the under 1 population in 1981 was higher than any other age up to 8.

2001 Census – Caution

Throughout this report the Registrar General’s annual mid-year estimates of population are used for comparing population trends and for use as denominators in calculating rates per head.

The latest 2001 mid-year estimates are based on the 2001 Census and are some 50,400 less than the previously published 2000 mid-year estimates. This fall does not represent change in a single year but rather an accumulated error in the previous mid-year estimates since 1981, which are expected to be the results of errors in estimating migration in the 1980s and 1990s. Given the new baseline established by the 2001 Census it will be necessary to revise previous population estimates.

These revisions for population estimates covering the series 1982–2000 will be made by end-February 2003. Revisions are being made back to 1982 because it is now evident that the adjustments made for underenumeration in the 1991 Census were excessive and need to be revisited.

Even though the population trends presented in this chapter for 1982-2000 are subject to revision, the fact of a declining population will not change. Comparisons of change over time are made with 1981 to present an accurate picture of change.

Population since 1901

The Scottish population has been relatively stable in the last 100 years as shown in Figure 2.1. It reached a peak of 5.24 million in 1974 and since then has been on a gradually declining trend with some fluctuations.

The change in trend since 1974 is mainly the result of a downturn in the number of births since that time. Up to 1974 population growth was fuelled by the large excess of births over deaths, which more than offset high migration losses occurring at the same time.

Figure 2.1 Estimated population of Scotland, 1901-2001

Figure 2.1 Estimated population of Scotland, 1901-2001

Note: The decline in the population between 1940 and 1946 is a result of the Second World War and members of the Armed Forces serving outwith Scotland not included in the resident population.
1 See text box, 2001 Census–Caution, which explains the discontinuity between 2001 and earlier years.

Trends in natural change and migration, the two primary components of population change, are shown in Figure 2.2. This shows that natural change was running at +30,000 or more each year between 1956 and 1970, but by 1974 natural change had fallen to less than +7,000 where it has remained ever since. Indeed, in the last 5 years deaths have exceeded births. This large downward shift in natural change was accompanied by a reduction in net emigration from Scotland. If net migration levels of the 1950s and 1960s (over 30,000 in many years) had continued, Scotland’s population would have fallen at a much greater rate.

Age structure

One of the most important aspects of the population is its age/sex composition. Changes in the balance between the three main age groups of the population (children, labour force, and pensionable age) will have many social and economic implications. For example an increase in the elderly population will make more demands on the health service, while an ageing population generally means a reduction in the working age population which supports dependent populations such as the elderly.

Figure 2.2 Natural change and net migration, Scotland, 1951-2001

Figure 2.2 Natural change and net migration, Scotland, 1951-2001

Figure 2.3 gives the age structure of the population for both males and females in 2001. It is possible to use past trends in fertility and mortality as a guide to explain the peaks and troughs at different ages. The peaks at ages 55 and mid-thirties reflect the baby boom after the Second World War and in the 1960s. Declining births in more recent years are

Figure 2.3 Estimated population by age and sex, 30 June 2001

Figure 2.3 Estimated population by age and sex, 30 June 2001

evident by the tapering of the population under the age of 30. The trough at ages 23-25 can be explained by a much lower level of births in 1976-1978 and the more stable levels of 10-20 year olds reflect a levelling off of the decline in births during the eighties when more women were passing through their childbearing ages. The shrinking numbers at the base of the population represent the continuing decline in births since 1990.

At the more elderly ages, particularly over 75, the higher number of females reflects the longer expectation of life for women, partly as a result of higher rates of male mortality during the Second World War. The effects of a ’flu epidemic in 1922 and lower levels of fertility during the First World War are also evident, as seen in the sharp decline in population aged over 81.

Figure 2.4 illustrates how the age structure of the population has changed since 1981. Of particular note are the decrease of 18 per cent in the number of children under 15 and the increase of 29 per cent in the numbers aged 75 and over. During this time the median age (age at which half the population is older than the value and half is younger) has grown by 5 years from 33 in 1981 to 38 in 2001.

Looking at Figure 2.3 again, it can be predicted that the ageing of the population will continue even if the decline in births is reversed or levels off. The big increase in people of retirement age as a result of the 1960s baby boom is still 30 or so years away. Before then, there will be smaller increases in the more elderly age groups as those born in the post Second World War baby boom move into retirement in the next 10 to 15 years. The phased raising of pensionable age for women from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 will mitigate the effect.

The ageing of the population is not unique to Scotland. This pattern of change over the last twenty years is consistent with other countries in the UK and Europe, although the rate of change varies. The chapters on births and deaths provide more detailed comparisons of trends in births and deaths in other countries.

Figure 2.4 The changing age structure of Scotland’s population, 1981-2001

Figure 2.4 The changing age structure of Scotland’s population, 1981-2001

Changes within Scotland

The distribution of population within Scotland is also changing. The map at Figure 2.5 shows the percentage change in population between 1981 and 2001 for each Council area. In general, the larger urban areas (apart from Edinburgh) are declining, while areas around the bigger cities and many rural areas are increasing. Generally, urban areas tend to have lower levels of fertility, higher mortality and more out-migration. The areas with a growing population tend to experience net in-migration and an excess of births over deaths.

Figure 2.5 Percentage population change by Council area, 1981–2001

Figure 2.5 Percentage population change by Council area, 1981–2001

The Council areas which showed the largest relative decreases are Glasgow City (-19%), Inverclyde (-17%), Eilean Siar (-16%) and Dundee City (-14%). Shetland also experienced a large decrease of 17 per cent, but this fall was a return to more normal long term levels after a large increase in the 1981 population caused by construction workers building the Sullon Voe terminal. The largest relative increases in population between 1981 and 2001 occurred in Aberdeenshire (+20%), West Lothian (+14%) and East Lothian (+12%).

Projected population

The latest 2000-based population projections reflect recent demographic trends based on 2000 mid-year estimates prepared prior to the results of the 2001 Census. Since these are some 50,000 higher than the revised mid-year estimates for 2000 taking account of the 2001 Census results, it would be misleading to use the actual numbers to represent change. The commentary therefore attempts to highlight the key changes using percentage changes to illustrate the size of the projected change. These will be subject to revision when a new set of projections are produced using the latest information from the 2001 Census.

The overall trend of a slowly declining population is projected to continue. In making these projections, assumptions have been made about future levels of fertility, mortality and migration based on past trends. Figure 2.6 shows a widening gap between births and deaths since the projected decline in births is faster than the decline in deaths,

Figure 2.6 Births and deaths, actual and projected, Scotland, 1951-2021

Figure 2.6 Births and deaths, actual and projected, Scotland, 1951-2021

1 2000-based projections

producing a natural decrease of over 10,000 a year after 2020. This is projected to be the main reason for population decline in future, more significant than migration (which the 2000-based projections assume will be in balance from 2002)-even when revisions are made to take account of past underestimates of migration loss.

Within this overall decline, significant changes to the age structure are projected (Figure 2.7). The proportion of children under 16 is projected to fall by 20 per cent by 2021, while the proportion of people aged 60 and over is projected to increase by over 25 per cent.

Figure 2.7 The projected change in age structure of Scotland’s population, 2000-2021

Figure 2.7 The projected change in age structure of Scotland’s population, 2000-2021

The implications of a changing age structure become clearer when considering the dependency ratio, that is the number of children under 16 plus the number of pensionable age per 100 people of working age. This provides an indicator of the economic burden that those of productive, or working ages, must support. However, it is worth noting that these ratios are based on age criteria and take no account of actual participation in the labour force. Therefore not all of the people of working age will be producers and not all of the people of pensionable age will be dependants.

Table 2.1 gives the projected dependency ratios from the 2000-based population projections up until 2025. Although the numbers are likely to change in the light of the results of the 2001 Census, they still provide a useful indicator of the future trend of the dependency ratios. Overall, the dependency ratio is projected to fall slightly by 2021, reflecting the smaller proportion of children, before returning to its 2000 level in 2025. However, this fall is largely due to the change in state retirement age of women from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020. The ratio would have been much higher at 66 per 100 of working age population without the change. After 2021, with the increasing numbers of people reaching pensionable age, the dependency ratio is projected to rise steeply to 72 in 2040.

Table 2.1 Projected number of dependants per 100 population of working age; Scotland: 2000-2040

Age group

2000
(base)

2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

2040

All dependants

60

60

58

57

56

56

72

Children

under 16

31

31

29

26

25

25

25

Pensionable ages

65/60 & over

29

29

30

31

31

31

46

65/60 – 74

18

18

18

19

18

17

22

75 & over

11

11

11

12

13

14

24


Pensionable age is 65 for men, 60 for women until 2010; between 2010 and 2020 pensionable age for women increases to 65.

Comparisons with Europe

The projected population decline by 2020 for Scotland (illustrated in Figure 2.8) is higher than that currently projected for any other European country. Indeed, most countries (including other countries within the UK) are projected to increase in population over this period. The underlying difference is that in other countries assumptions about future levels of migration offset projected declines in natural change (births minus deaths).

Figure 2.8 Projected percentage population change, EU countries, 2000–2020

Figure 2.8 Projected percentage population change, EU countries, 2000–2020

Source GAD, Eurostat

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