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Scotland's Population 2001: The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends

CHAPTER 3 – BIRTHS

Births

Scotland is experiencing its lowest levels of fertility on record. In 2001, there were 52,527 births registered, the lowest level since civil registration began in 1855. This is a fall of 22 per cent from ten years ago and nearly half of the level fifty years ago.

Births play a significant role in population change and if recent declines continue this will ultimately have a significant impact on the future level of the working age population.

Trends since 1901

The number of births in the last 100 years is illustrated in Figure 3.1. Apart from peaks after each of the World Wars, births have generally been in decline since the start of the twentieth century. However, like a lot of other western countries, births in Scotland increased substantially during the second half of the 1950s, peaked in the mid-1960s at around 100,000 live births per year and then fell dramatically in the late 1960s and early 1970s.

The drop in the number of births appeared to level off in the 1980s at 60-70,000 births per annum. However, this was mainly as a result of the larger number of women, who were born in the baby boom of the 1950s and 1960s, passing through their child-bearing years. The decline in births resumed in the 1990s as the peak of women completed their families.

Figure 3.1 Live births, Scotland, 1901–2001

Figure 3.1 Live births, Scotland, 1901–2001

Trends in the fertility rate since 1951

The total fertility rate (TFR) is one of the most common measures of fertility. The TFR for a particular year is the number of children that a woman would have over her lifetime if she experienced the age specific fertility rates (ASFR) for that year for each age between 15 to 44. In 2001, the TFR was 1.49. Changes in the TFR since 1951 are shown in Figure 3.2 along with the number of women aged 15-44 in the population (which also has an impact on fertility levels). At the peak of the baby boom in 1964, the TFR reached 3.09 before falling sharply 1.7 by 1977 (post baby boom nadir) and then more slowly to 1.49 in 2001. Significantly, the female population aged 15-44 was at its lowest during the baby boom period of the 1960s, indicating that the number of births would have been even greater had it not been for the age structure of the population.

Figure 3.2 Estimated female population aged 15–44 and total fertility rate, 1951-2001

Figure 3.2 Estimated female population aged 15–44 and total fertility rate, 1951-2001

Births by age of mother

As well as fewer women choosing to have babies, women are also choosing to have them later in life. An analysis of age specific fertility rates reveals how the TFR has changed over time and which age groups are responsible for its fall in recent years. Figure 3.3 plots a time series of birth rates for five-year age groups covering 1951-2001. Notice how this indicates that the rise in the TFR in the 1960s baby boom was mostly due to the increased fertility of women in their twenties. It has been this age group which has undergone a dramatic fall in fertility. The fertility rate amongst women aged 20-24 is about half what it was 20 years ago and a third of the 1960s peak; for women aged 25-29 the decline is to about half the 1960s. Teenage fertility rates fell during the 1970s, but have changed little in the last two decades.

Women aged 30 and above have experienced gradually increasing fertility over the last two decades – though it can be seen that recent rates are still well below the rates experienced in the 1950s and 1960s. The proportion of the TFR contributed by these older women has risen from 25 per cent in 1981 to 42 per cent in 2001.

Figure 3.3 Live births per 1,000 women, by age of mother, Scotland, 1951–2001

Figure 3.3 Live births per 1,000 women, by age of mother, Scotland, 1951–2001

Figure 3.4 further illustrates the changing pattern of fertility over time by showing age specific fertility rates for selected years of the post-war period: 1951, 1964, 1977, 1991 and 2001. Note how for 1951, 1964 and 1977 the overall shape of the curve was roughly the same even though the levels differed considerably. However, the 1991 age pattern peaks some two years later at age 27, and the 2001 pattern reveals a significant break with the past – a collapse of fertility amongst women in their twenties and a peak age of 30. At ages above 30, fertility in 2001 is higher than in 1991 but still well below the rates in 1951 and 1964.

Figure 3.4 Births, per 1,000 women

Figure 3.4 Births, per 1,000 women

Completed family size

Figure 3.5 shows the completed family size (cumulative cohort fertility) at specific ages for women born in particular years (or cohorts). Family size at age 44 is taken to represent completed family size. This enables easy comparison between selected cohorts as women pass through the child-bearing ages. For example at age 25 the 1976 cohort had averaged 0.5 children compared with over 1 for the 1952 cohort. Average completed family size for the 1952 cohort was just over two children but below the level of reproduction that is required for a stable population. Later cohorts with completed families did not even average two children and the figure shows that subsequent cohorts have had successively fewer children at each age.

Figure 3.5 Cumulative cohort fertility rate for selected cohorts, Scotland

Figure 3.5 Cumulative cohort fertility rate for selected cohorts, Scotland

Comparisons with the UK and other EU countries

Scotland’s fertility has not only been falling in recent years relative to past levels but also relative to other parts of the United Kingdom. Figure 3.6 plots the TFRs of England and Wales, and Northern Ireland, alongside the values for Scotland for the post-war period. Until the late 1970s Scotland’s TFR was slightly higher than that for England and Wales. Although the pattern of declining fertility is very similar, Scotland’s TFR has slowly dropped away from the England and Wales level, since the early 1980s. Northern Ireland’s fertility has fallen from a high level towards the England and Wales figure.

Further research is needed to identify why Scottish fertility has fallen and why it is now lower than in other parts of the UK. Part of the difference may be attributable to the smaller ethnic minority population in Scotland, compared with England, a group which tends to have higher fertility. Another reason may be migration patterns, with people emigrating from Scotland in their peak child-bearing years only returning to Scotland later in life.

A comparison of the latest TFRs available for Scotland and other selected western countries is shown in Figure 3.7. This shows that a number of countries – Spain, Italy, Germany, Austria and Greece have lower fertility rates than Scotland. Currently Scotland’s TFR is 1.49, just below the EU-15 average, while twenty years ago it was 4 per cent higher than the European Union.

Figure 3.6 Total fertility rates, UK, 1951–2000

Figure 3.6 Total fertility rates, UK, 1951–2000

Note: Data for Northern Ireland are only available from 1970.
Source: ONS and NISRA

Figure 3.7 Total fertility rate, selected countries, 2000

Figure 3.7 Total fertility rate, selected countries, 2000

Source: ONS, Eurostat

The trend of declining fertility in Scotland, consistent with that of most European countries, is expected to continue. In contrast, the decline in fertility in the USA was reversed in the early 1990s.

Possible reasons for falling fertility

The reasons for the fall in fertility are varied and complex, and it is difficult to quantify specific causes. The factors likely to have played a part in the fall in fertility in Scotland, as in many other countries, include:

It may be that one or more such factors has a particular bearing on why Scottish fertility has fallen faster than in England and Wales. Research is needed to identify the underlying causes.

Regional variation

The trend of declining births experienced at the Scotland level is also evident for Council areas within Scotland, but to a differing pattern. Figure 3.8 shows the 2001 birth rates per 1,000 women of child-bearing age. The rates in Edinburgh and Aberdeen are considerably lower – about 15 per cent lower than the Scottish average. In contrast, the birth rate in Shetland was 20 per cent higher than the Scottish rate and Angus and Midlothian were 13 per cent higher. The variation between areas may be the result of a larger number of students and higher labour force participation rates amongst females in the cities.

Figure 3.8 Live births per 1,000 women aged 15-44, by Council area, 2001

Figure 3.8 Live births per 1,000 women aged 15-44, by Council area, 2001

Births by marital status

Information collected on the marital status of parents when registering a birth provides an insight into changing social attitudes. 57 per cent of births in 2001 were to married parents compared with 71 per cent in 1991 and 95 per cent in 1951. However, it should be noted that the proportion of births to unmarried parents, which were jointly registered by the mother and father, has increased significantly and now accounts for some two-thirds of births to unmarried parents. (Figure 3.9)

Information available only since 1996 shows that in the majority of cases where births to unmarried parents are jointly registered, both parents are living at the same address.

Figure 3.9 Proportion of births by marital status and type of registration, Scotland, 1974–2001

Figure 3.9 Proportion of births by marital status and type of registration, Scotland, 1974–2001

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