previous | contents | next

Scotland's Population 2003: The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends

CHAPTER 1 – DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW

Over the year to 30 June 2003, Scotland’s population rose by 2,600 to 5,057,400, a rise of less than 0.1 per cent. This small rise interrupts the general downwards trend in Scotland's population evident since 1974. In recent years the main reason for the fall in population has been the decline in the number of births, so that a natural decrease (more deaths than births) has been recorded. In contrast, net migration to Scotland, while fluctuating from year to year, was in 2002-03 estimated at +9,000.

The number of births recorded in 2003 was 52,432 – 217 more than in 2002 which had been an all-time low – while the number of deaths increased slightly to 58,472, an increase of 369 compared with 2002. There were 296 stillbirths in 2003, a slight rise from 2002 which had seen the lowest total ever recorded. 2003 saw the lowest ever number, 265, of infant deaths. There were 30,757 marriages and 10,928 divorces, both slightly up on 2002.

While the rate of decline of Scotland’s population in recent years has been relatively slow, much more pronounced changes are occurring in the age structure and geographical distribution of the population. These changes, for example an increasing proportion of older people, and a shift away from most of the larger cities towards the surrounding areas, are projected to continue in the years ahead.

Migration continues to be the most difficult component of population change to estimate and work continues on identifying and implementing improvements to sources of data on moves within and into and out of Scotland.

KEY POINTS

POPULATION

The latest estimate of Scotland’s population (30 June 2003) is 5,057,400. 18.7 per cent of the population was aged under 16 and 18.9 per cent was of pensionable age (60 for women and 65 for men), with the remaining 62.4 per cent of working age (16-59 for women, 16-64 for men).

In the 12 months to 30 June 2003, Scotland’s population is estimated to have risen by 2,600. This is made up of a decrease of 6,500 attributable to natural decline (i.e. more deaths than births), compensated for by migration gain of around 9,000. The migration figures include movements of asylum seekers to Glasgow City and an adjustment for unmeasured migration. This adjustment has been introduced following analysis of the 2001 Census data which suggested out-migration had been underestimated in the 1980s and 1990s. For more discussion of this topic see page 37.

The rise in Scotland’s population in the year to 30 June 2003 should be seen in the context of the relative stability of the population over the last 50 years as shown in Figure 1.1. The population reached a peak of 5.24 million in 1974 and since then has been on a gradually declining trend with some fluctuations.

Figure 1.1 Estimated population of Scotland, actual and projected, 1951-2027

Figure 1.1 Estimated population of Scotland, actual and projected, 1951-2027

1 2002-based projections

It can be seen from the trends in natural change and migration presented in Figure 1.2 that the population increase up to 1974 was the result of natural change being greater than net emigration from Scotland. But, since 1974, natural change has fallen dramatically as a result of sharp declines in the number of births (over 100,000 in the 1960s to less than 60,000 since 1996), while the number of deaths has remained fairly constant. This fall in natural change was accompanied by a reduction in net emigration from Scotland, but net emigration remained higher than the levels of natural change during the late 1970s and 1980s, causing the population to decline.

Figure 1.2 Natural change and net migration, 1951-2003

Figure 1.2 Natural change and net migration, 1951-2003

Figure 1.3 Estimated population by age and sex, 30 June 2003

Figure 1.3 Estimated population by age and sex, 30 June 2003

Age structure

The age/sex composition is one of the most important aspects of the population, as changes in different age groups will have different social and economic impacts. For example, increases in the elderly population are likely to place a greater demand on health and social services.

Figure 1.3 shows the age structure of the population in 2003. Using past trends in fertility and mortality as a guide, it is possible to explain the peaks and troughs at different ages. Peaks at ages 55 and around 40 reflect the ‘baby boom’ after the Second World War and in the 1960s. Declining births in more recent years are evident by the tapering of the population under the age of 35. The more stable levels of 10-20 year olds reflect a levelling off of the decline in births during the 1980s when more women were passing through their childbearing ages.

At the more elderly ages, particularly over 75, the higher number of females reflects the longer expectation of life for women, partly as a result of higher rates of male mortality during the Second World War. The effects of a ‘flu epidemic in 1919 and lower levels of fertility during the First World War are also evident, as seen in the sharp decline in population aged over 83.

The changing age structure of the population since 1993 is illustrated in Figure 1.4. Of particular note are the decrease of 8 per cent in the number of children under 15 and the increase of 11 per cent in the numbers aged 75 and over. The ageing of the population is evident in the large rise of the 45-59 age group and the fall in the 15-29 age group.

The ageing of the population is not unique to Scotland. This pattern of change over the last twenty years is consistent with other countries in the UK and Europe, although the rate of change varies.

Figure 1.4 The changing age structure of Scotland’s population, 1993-2003

Figure 1.4 The changing age structure of Scotland’s population, 1993-2003

Changes within Scotland

The map at Figure 1.5 shows the percentage change in population between 1993 and 2003 for each Council area. It is better to compare over a time frame longer than one year, as population change tends to fluctuate from year to year, particularly for smaller areas. In general, the larger urban areas (apart from Edinburgh) are declining, while areas around the bigger cities and many rural areas (apart from islands areas) are increasing. Generally, urban areas tend to have lower levels of fertility, higher mortality and more out-migration. The areas with a growing population tend to experience both net in-migration and an excess of births over deaths, partly because migrants tend to be people of childbearing age.

Figure 1.5 Percentage population change by Council area, 1993-2003

Figure 1.5 Percentage population change by Council area, 1993-2003

The Council areas which showed the largest relative decreases over this period were Eilean Siar (-10.8 per cent), Inverclyde (-7.6 per cent), Dundee City (-7.1 per cent) and Glasgow City (-6.4 per cent). The largest relative increases in population occurred in West Lothian (+10.5 per cent), East Lothian (+7.3 per cent), Stirling (+6.1 per cent) and Perth & Kinross (+4.2 per cent).

Projected population

The overall trend of a slowly declining population is projected – on the basis of existing trends, making no allowance for the impact of government policies and other factors – to continue, resulting in the population of Scotland falling below 5 million in 2009 and reaching 4.84 million in 2027.

Figure 1.6 shows a widening gap between births and deaths, with a natural decrease of over 13,000 a year by 2027. This is likely to be the main reason for population decline in the future.

Figure 1.6 Births and deaths, actual and projected, Scotland, 1951-2027

Figure 1.6 Births and deaths, actual and projected, Scotland, 1951-2027

1 2002-based projections

Within this overall decline, significant changes to the age structure are projected (Figure 1.7). The proportion of children under 16 is projected to fall by 19 per cent by 2027, while the proportion of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by more than 60 per cent.

Figure 1.7 The projected percentage change in age structure of Scotland’s population, 2002-20271

Figure 1.7 The projected percentage change in age structure of Scotland’s population, 2002-20271

1 2002-based projections

Dependency Ratios

Dependency ratios show the relationship between the working age population and the two main dependent groups – children aged under 16 and people of pensionable age. Figure 1.8 shows this in the long term, with little change evident over the next 15 years, but with a relatively rapid increase in the pension age population in relation to the working age population in subsequent years. Over the period up to 2020, rises in the pension age population are largely offset by a reduction in the numbers of children. Figure 1.8 also reflects the changes being made between 2010 and 2020 to introduce a state pension at the age of 65 for women.

Figure 1.8 Dependency ratios (per thousand working population)

Figure 1.8 Dependency ratios (per thousand working population)

Assumptions and variant projections

The 2002-based population projections take account of the results of the 2001 Census, which showed that the base population used in previous population projections was overestimated. In addition, the 2002-based projections incorporate revised assumptions on mortality and migration.

Mortality rates are falling (by about 1.4 per cent per annum) and this improvement is expected to continue. But the rate of improvement is expected to fall as further reductions in the death rate become progressively harder to achieve. By 2027, it is assumed that mortality rates will be falling by 1 per cent per annum, thereafter reducing by one half per cent each ten years. The previous projections, 2001-based, assumed a slower improvement in the early stages of the projections, converging to 0.75 per cent per annum by 2027. The main result of the new assumptions is that people are likely to live for longer than had previously been thought – increasing the number of elderly people in the population.

On migration, an assumption that there will be an annual long term net outflow of 1,500 people has been used in the 2002-based population projections. Previous projections assumed a zero net flow. The long term fertility assumptions are unchanged with an average completed family size of 1.60 for women born in 1985 and later.

Figure 1.9 shows the effect of these new mortality assumptions on the projected population of those aged 75 and over, with high and low variants of mortality assumptions shown by broken lines. (The high variant mortality assumes convergence on 0 per cent annual mortality improvement by 2027 and the low variant mortality assumes convergence on 2 per cent annual mortality improvement in 2027.)

Figure 1.9 Projected Population (with high and low mortality variants) aged 75 and over, Scotland, 2001-2042

Figure 1.9 Projected Population (with high and low mortality variants) aged 75 and over, Scotland, 2001-2042

BIRTHS

Numbers

The number of births recorded in 2003 was 52,432, an increase of 712 on 2002 which had seen the lowest total since civil registration began in 1855. The number of births since 1901 is shown in Figure 1.10. Apart from peaks after each of the World Wars, births have generally been in decline since the start of the twentieth century. However, like a lot of other western countries, births in Scotland increased substantially during the second half of the 1950s, peaked in the mid-1960s at around 100,000 live births per year and then fell dramatically in the late 1960s and early 1970s. The drop in the number of births appeared to level off in the 1980s at 60-70,000 births per annum. However, this was mainly a result of the larger number of women, who were born in the baby boom of the 1950s and 1960s, passing through their childbearing years. The decline in births resumed in the 1990s as these women completed their families.

The small rise in the number of births in 2003 (1.3 per cent higher than 2002) arrests the recent decline. But it is too early to say whether it marks a turning point in Scottish fertility levels. The total for 2003 is only half that of the peak recorded during the ‘baby boom’ of the early 1960s and it is almost a quarter (24 per cent) lower than the 1981 figure.

The proportion of births to unmarried parents (including births registered solely in the mother’s name) has continued to rise, reaching 46 per cent in 2003 compared to 31 per cent ten years ago. However, the proportion of births registered solely in the mother’s name has remained relatively constant over this period at 6 to 7 per cent.

Figure 1.10 Live births, Scotland, 1901-2003

Figure 1.10 Live births, Scotland, 1901-2003

Fertility Rates

The simplest fertility rate is the so called ‘crude birth rate’ which is defined as the number of live births per 1000 total population. Appendix 1 Table 1 shows that in 2003 the crude birth rate for Scotland stood at 10.4 compared with around 20 fifty years ago and around 30 a hundred years ago. Because it takes no account of the age/gender structure of the population, the crude birth rate has only limited value e.g. for giving rough comparisons between areas with broadly similar age/gender structures. Appendix 1 Tables 2 and 3 present crude birth rates for, respectively, administrative areas in Scotland and selected European and other countries. Appendix 1 Table 2 also gives standardised birth rates for the administrative areas of Scotland: these adjusted birth rates take account of the population structures in the different areas.

A better approach is to consider the general fertility rate (GFR) which is based on the numbers of women of childbearing age. Figure 1.11 shows the general fertility rate (births per 1000 females aged 15-44), along with the number of women aged 15-44. During the 1960s ‘baby boom’ the GFR reached 99.5 (in 1962). It then fell sharply to around 60 during the 1980s before declining more slowly to its 2003 value of 49.4. Interestingly, the chart shows that the female population aged 15-44 was relatively low during the baby boom of the 1960s. Moreover, the levelling off in the annual numbers of births during the 1980s was in part associated with the increasing numbers of women born in the 1950s and 1960s, passing through their childbearing years.

Figure 1.11 Estimated female population aged 15-44 and general fertility rate (GFR), Scotland, 1951-2003

Figure 1.11 Estimated female population aged 15-44 and general fertility rate (GFR), Scotland, 1951-2003

A more detailed picture may be obtained by calculating fertility rates for narrower age bands. Figure 1.12 presents age specific fertility rates (ASFRs) by mother’s age in five-year age groups. This chart shows many significant age-related features of the pattern of childbearing over the last fifty years. The key point to emerge is that as well as choosing to have fewer babies, women are also choosing to have them later in life.

Other points of interest are:

The 1960’s baby boom was mostly due to increased birth rates of women in their twenties.

Figure 1.12 Live births per 1,000 women, by age of mother, Scotland, 1951-2003

Figure 1.12 Live births per 1,000 women, by age of mother, Scotland, 1951-2003

Figure 1.13 further illustrates the ageing pattern of fertility by showing detailed age specific fertility rates for selected years of the post-war period: 1951, 1964, 1977, 1991 and 2003. Even though the levels differed considerably, the overall age patterns of fertility for 1951, 1964 and 1977 were roughly the same. However, the age distribution for 1991 shows a distinctly older peak; and that for 2003 reveals the big reduction in fertility of women in their twenties.

Figure 1.13 Live births per 1,000 women, by age, selected years

Figure 1.13 Live births per 1,000 women, by age, selected years

The trend towards later childbearing may be summarised by considering the average age for all mothers. In 2003, the average was 29.3 compared with 27.4 in 1991, 26.1 in 1977, and 27.4 in 1964.

The total fertility rate (TFR) is a commonly used summary measure of fertility levels calculated by summing the age specific rates for a single year. It may be thought of as the average number of children that a group of woman would expect to have if they experienced the ASFRs observed in the given year throughout their childbearing years.

The TFR for Scotland since 1951 is plotted in Figure 1.14. Not surprisingly, it follows the same general pattern as the GFR described above. It rose to 3.09 in 1964 before dropping sharply to 1.70 in 1977 since when, with a few minor fluctuations, it has fallen more slowly to its current (2003) level of 1.54.

Figure 1.14 Total fertility rate, Scotland, 1951-2003

Figure 1.14 Total fertility rate, Scotland, 1951-2003

Though widely used, in part because it is relatively easy to calculate, the TFR has serious deficiencies as it is based on only one year’s observations. For example, when women are delaying childbearing the TFR is likely to underestimate the number of children women will eventually have. As mentioned above it is this scenario – delayed childbearing – that is currently prevalent in Scotland.

A more satisfactory measure is average completed family size. Figure 1.15 shows the completed family size (or cumulative cohort fertility) by age for women born in selected years. Those born in 1951 had attained an average completed family size of 2.03 by the time they reached 45 whereas for those born in 1956 the figure was 1.93. The chart also permits the comparison of family size at selected ages for the various cohorts as they pass through the childbearing ages. For example, by age 30, the cumulative childbearing of the 1971 cohort is about 0.6 lower than that of the 1951 cohort. Of crucial importance is the extent to which the later cohorts are falling behind in family building. Whilst the increasing fertility rates of those aged over 30 may lead to some catching-up, it seems highly unlikely that this will increase the average completed family size to the levels attained as recently as the 1960s.

Figure 1.15 Cumulative cohort fertility rate for selected birth cohorts, Scotland

Figure 1.15 Cumulative cohort fertility rate for selected birth cohorts, Scotland

Scotland’s fertility has also been falling relative to fertility in other parts of the United Kingdom. Figure 1.16 compares the TFRs for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland with those for Scotland since 1971. Until the late 1970s Scotland’s TFR was slightly higher than those for England and Wales but since the early 1980s, Scotland’s TFR has dropped steadily below the levels for England and Wales. In 1971 the TFR for Northern Ireland was markedly higher than for the other three countries. However, over the last 30 years the differential has been significantly reduced.

Figure 1.16 Total fertility rates, UK countries, 1971-2003

Figure 1.16 Total fertility rates, UK countries, 1971-2003

More detailed information on births and fertility was given in Chapters 2 and 3 of last year’s report, Scotland’s Population 2002. Chapter 2 focused on recent trends in Scottish fertility, comparing these trends with the rest of the UK and Europe and Chapter 3 placed the Scottish fertility experience in a wider geographical context, discussing reasons for low fertility and addressing the scope for policy intervention.

DEATHS

Numbers

The number of deaths registered in Scotland in 2003 was 58,472 – 369 more than 2002. However, this is still one of the lowest totals recorded since civil registration began in 1855. Figure 1.6 on page 9 shows that from 1951 up to the early 1990s the annual number of deaths remained relatively stable at about 60-65,000 a year. Since then the total has declined slightly to around, or just below, 60,000.

Stillbirths, perinatal deaths and infant deaths

As can be seen in Figure 1.17, there have been significant improvements in the rates for stillbirths, perinatal deaths and infant deaths in the period since 1951. The stillbirth rate has reduced from 26.6 per 1,000 total births (live and still) in 1951 to 5.6 in 2003, despite a change in the definition of stillbirths in 1992 which reduced the minimum period of gestation from 28 weeks to 24 weeks (thus increasing the numbers classified as stillbirths). The rate of perinatal deaths (stillbirths and deaths in the first week of life) fell from 44.2 per 1,000 total births in 1951 to 8.0 in 2003, an improvement of over 82 per cent. Finally, the infant death rate (deaths of children aged under 1) has improved by 87 per cent from 37.4 per 1,000 live births in 1951 to 5.1 in 2003.

Figure 1.17 Stillbirth, perinatal and infant death rates, Scotland, 1951-2003

Figure 1.17 Stillbirth, perinatal and infant death rates, Scotland, 1951-2003

* Change in definition of stillbirths from 28 to 24 weeks’ gestation

Whilst these rates are comparable to those for the UK as a whole, there are several western European countries that have significantly lower rates (Appendix 1 Table 3).

Mortality by age

As would be expected, the majority of deaths occur at older ages. About 59 per cent of deaths were of people aged 75 and over, and a further 27 per cent were between the ages of 60 and 75.

The relative stability in the number of deaths over the last 50 years masks large improvements in age-specific mortality. Figure 1.18 shows, for both men and women, selected age-specific mortality rates over the last twenty years relative to the 1981 rates. The three age groups shown (45-64, 65-74 and 75 and over) account for around 95 per cent of all deaths.

At these ages, there have been greater improvements in male than in female mortality. For the 45-64 age group, males and females experienced improvements of about 40 per cent and 30 per cent respectively. In the 65-74 age group, males showed an improvement of 37 per cent compared to 30 per cent for females. The greatest differential is in the 75 plus age group, where male mortality has improved by 19 per cent compared to only 5 per cent for females.

Figure 1.18 Age specific mortality rates as a proportion of 1981 rate, 1981-2003

Figure 1.18 Age specific mortality rates as a proportion of 1981 rate, 1981-2003

Life expectancy

Although improvements in mortality rates in Scotland have generally been slower than in the rest of the UK and elsewhere in Europe, the improvements are still considerable and the impact is demonstrated in the steadily rising expectation of life.

The expectation of life at birth is a commonly used summary measure of mortality rates which is particularly useful when comparing the ‘health’ of a nation through time and for making comparisons with other countries. Figure 1.19 shows that the expectation of life at birth in Scotland has improved greatly over the last 50 years or so, increasing from 64.4 years for males and 68.7 years for females born around 1951 to 73.5 years and 78.8 years respectively for those born around 2002. Figure 1.19 also illustrates that improvements in life expectancy at birth are projected to continue, rising to 78.4 for males and 83.2 for females by 2027.

Scottish males and females have the lowest expectation of life at birth in the EU (15 states). For Scottish males, expectation of life is 1 year lower than the EU (25 states) average and, for females, it is 2 years lower. For both sexes, the expectation of life is more than 4 years lower than the countries with the highest expectation of life.

Variations in mortality levels within Scotland

Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs), which compare local death rates with death rates in Scotland as a whole, taking account of the different population structure of each area, are presented in Figure 1.20. In all, 12 out of 32 Council areas have a higher standard

Figure 1.19 Expectation of life at birth, Scotland, 1951-2027

Figure 1.19 Expectation of life at birth, Scotland, 1951-2027

1 2002-based projections

mortality ratio than the Scottish average of 100, and 8 of these are in west central Scotland. The worst, Glasgow City, is 24 per cent higher than the Scottish average which itself is about 15 per cent higher than the UK average.

At the other end of the scale, the mortality rate in East Dunbartonshire was 19 per cent below the Scottish average and Orkney, Aberdeenshire and Perth & Kinross were, respectively 18 per cent, 16 per cent and 13 per cent below (or better than) the Scottish average.

Cause of death

In 2003, the two most common causes of death in Scotland were cancer (15,116 deaths, 26 per cent) and ischaemic heart disease (11,441 deaths, 20 per cent). However, since 1981 the proportion of deaths caused by ischaemic heart disease has fallen from 29 to 20 per cent, whereas the proportion caused by cancer has risen from 22 to 26 per cent. And since 1995, there have been more deaths from cancer than ischaemic heart disease. Of the 15,116 deaths from cancers in 2003, trachea, bronchus and lung was the most common site, accounting for over a quarter (26 per cent) of all cancer deaths.

Figure 1.20 Standardised mortality ratios, by Council area, 2003

Figure 1.20 Standardised mortality ratios, by Council area, 2003

Cancer

Death rates, by sex, for the most common causes of death are shown in Table 1.1. Over the last 20 years or so, male death rates from lung cancer have fallen by almost a quarter (from 119 per 100,000 population in 1980-82 to 90 in 2003). By contrast, the rates for women have increased by almost 60 per cent (from 41 per 100,000 population in 1980-82 compared to 65 in 2003), but are still considerably lower than the male death rates.

The next most frequent site for cancer deaths was prostate for men (786 deaths of which 65 per cent were aged 75 and over) and breast for women (1,138 deaths). Death rates for the former continue to increase whereas those for the latter have shown a slight fall in recent years.

Heart disease and strokes

In contrast to the rises for cancer, death rates for ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease (stroke) have shown significant declines. Since 1981, males have experienced slightly larger improvements (37 per cent for ischaemic heart disease and 29 per cent for stroke) compared with improvements of 34 and 26 per cent respectively for females.

Table 1.1 Death rates from selected causes, by sex, Scotland, 1950-2003

Males – rates per 100,000 population

Year

Cancer

Ischaemic heart
disease

Cerebrovascular
disease

All sites

Trachea, bronchus
and lung

Prostate

1950-52

206

48

13

276

155

1960-62

241

86

16

360

166

1970-72

272

112

14

407

158

1980-82

291

119

19

408

139

1990-92

314

111

27

367

119

2002-02

321

93

32

261

101

2003

314

90

32

255

99

 

Females – rates per 100,000 population

Year

Cancer

Ischaemic heart
disease

Cerebrovascular
disease

All sites

Trachea, bronchus
and lung

Breast

1950-52

185

10

31

203

213

1960-62

195

13

35

262

230

1970-72

218

24

40

289

226

1980-82

247

41

45

304

210

1990-92

278

57

48

297

191

2002-02

288

64

43

216

162

2003

285

65

43

200

156

 

Using the latest comparable data available, 2002, Figure 1.21 compares the death rates for the constituent countries of the UK for selected causes after adjusting for differences in age structure. The Scottish rates for cancer, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease are well above the rates for the other countries of the United Kingdom for both men and women.

Figure 1.21 Age-adjusted mortality rates, by selected cause and sex, 2002

Figure 1.21 Age-adjusted mortality rates, by selected cause and sex, 2002

Source: ONS

Suicides

In 2003, deaths from intentional self-harm numbered 560 (413 males and 147 females), 76 fewer than in 2002. To allow for any under-recording of suicides, it is conventional to combine deaths classified as ‘events of undetermined intent’ with those for ‘intentional self-harm’, as most of the former are believed to be suicides. The total number of deaths classified to these two groups in 2003 was 794, compared with 899 in 2002.

Despite this reduction, suicide remains the most important cause of death for men aged 15-34 and 35-44 and women aged 15-34. For men the most frequent cause of these deaths was hanging, strangulation and suffocation, whereas for women it was poisoning.

Main causes of death by age and sex

The main causes of death vary in importance by age and sex (Figure 1.22). Accidents were the largest category amongst boys aged 1-14, accounting for 25 per cent of deaths. Cancer, at 23 per cent, was the next largest cause. For girls aged 1-14, accidents and cancer were the most common causes both accounting for 18 per cent of the deaths.

For males aged 15-34, the main cause was suicide (intentional self-harm plus undetermined deaths) followed by accidents and mental disorders (almost entirely associated with drug and alcohol abuse). For females in this age group, suicide was also the largest category, with cancer ranking second.

Suicide was also the most frequent cause of death for males aged 35-44, but for this age group ischaemic heart disease was the next most frequent cause. For women aged 35-44, cancer was the main cause followed by suicide.

For both sexes and all age groups between 45 and 74, cancer was the main cause followed by ischaemic heart disease. For women, cancer was responsible for a higher proportion of deaths in these age groups than for men. Conversely, ischaemic heart disease accounted for a higher proportion of deaths in these age groups for men than for women.

Figure 1.22 Deaths, by cause and age group, Scotland, 2003

Figure 1.22 Deaths, by cause and age group, Scotland, 2003

MIGRATION

In addition to births and deaths, migration is the other component of population change. However, unlike births and deaths, there is no comprehensive source for estimating migration and hence it is the most difficult component of change to measure and predict. Migration and the reasons for migrating are also much more susceptible to short-term changes in social and economic circumstances than births and deaths.

There has recently been an increased interest in migration. Population projections have highlighted the declining and ageing population of Scotland. The Scottish Executive’s Fresh Talent Initiative aims to stem population decline, and alleviate possible problems of reduced workforce, by attracting young and economically active people to Scotland, and by encouraging others to stay.

In addition, the publication of the 2001 Census has made available a wealth of data about migrants which is not otherwise available (for example, educational qualifications, country of birth and ethnic group). This allows us to update our understanding of the characteristics of migrants, and to further understand the likely consequences of current migration patterns. In addition, the Census provides an opportunity to examine the quality of current data sources on migration which feed into the population estimates and projections.

This is the focus of Chapter 2 of this Report, which uses Census and other data to look in more depth at migration in Scotland.

MARRIAGES

Numbers

In 2003, there were 30,757 marriages in Scotland, compared with over 40,000 in the 1960s. Figure 1.23, however, shows that the decline in the number of marriages may be levelling out at around 30,000 a year.

Figure 1.23 Marriages, Scotland, 1951-2003

Figure 1.23 Marriages, Scotland, 1951-2003

The information in this section covers all marriages registered in Scotland, regardless of the usual residence of the parties involved. For almost 30 per cent of the marriages registered in 2003, neither the bride nor the groom was resident in Scotland; around half of these took place at Gretna. For some demographic purposes, users might wish to limit analyses to specific categories of residents. Further details of available information may be obtained from the GROS Customer Service address given in Correspondence and Enquiries on page 76. Conversely, a number of couples who are resident in Scotland go abroad to be married. These marriages are not included in this chapter, and only some come to the attention of the Registrar General through notification to British Consular authorities.

Marital status at marriage

Figure 1.24 gives the percentage of marriages by marital status at the time of marriage between 1951 and 2003. The percentage of divorced people re-marrying rose from only 3 per cent in 1951 to just under 6 per cent during 1971, but by 2003 over a quarter (28 per cent for males and 27 per cent for females) of those marrying were divorcees. The majority of this shift reflects a reduction in the proportion of marriages where one of the partners was a bachelor/spinster. However, the proportion of those marrying who were widowed has also declined – in 2003 the proportion was about 2 per cent or about half of what it was 50 years ago.

Figure 1.24 Marriages, by marital status of persons marrying, 1951-2003

Figure 1.24 Marriages, by marital status of persons marrying, 1951-2003

Marriages by type of ceremony

Civil marriages accounted for 45 per cent of all marriages in 2003. As illustrated in Figure 1.25, this is more than twice the proportion fifty years ago. The trend reflects a move away from religious marriages to civil marriages, particularly during the 1970s and 1980s when the proportion of civil marriages reached current levels. The increase in religious marriages observed during the period 1997-2002 was largely associated with the increase of ‘holiday’ or ‘tourism’ marriages, of which a significant proportion were carried out at Gretna. Until 2002 it was necessary to have a religious celebrant if locations other than registration offices (such as the Blacksmith’s Shop in Gretna) were to be used for the ceremony. (More detailed information on marriages in Gretna is available in the GROS Occasional Paper Marriages at Gretna, 1975-2000.)

Figure 1.25 Marriages by type of ceremony, Scotland, 1951-2003

Figure 1.25 Marriages by type of ceremony, Scotland, 1951-2003

1 Includes the small number of "irregular marriages" by decree of court.

The reduction in the number of religious ceremonies, and the associated increase in the number of civil ceremonies, recorded in 2003 is a direct consequence of a change in legislation that gave people a wider choice of venues for civil marriage in Scotland. The Marriage (Scotland) Act 2002 and associated Regulations and Guidance, which came into effect in June 2002, enabled Registrars to conduct civil marriage ceremonies in ‘approved places’ other than civil registration offices.

By the end of 2003, 424 venues had been approved for civil marriages. During 2003, the first full year covered by the new arrangements, 3,465 civil ceremonies (11 per cent of all marriages and 25 per cent of civil marriages) were conducted at these venues. Before the 2002 Act, these couples would have had to arrange a religious marriage at their chosen venue or a civil ceremony in a registration office. The types of venue approved include castles, stately homes and other historic buildings, hotels and clubs and a small number of outdoor locations in gardens or the countryside. The most significant change has, not surprisingly, been seen at Gretna where civil ceremonies accounted for 40 per cent of the 3,500 or so marriages neither in a church nor the registration office. It is expected that the range of approved venues, and the number of civil ceremonies conducted at them, will increase further in the coming years.

DIVORCES

Numbers

The number of divorces in 2003 was 10,928, slightly higher than in 2002. Figure 1.26 shows the number of divorces between 1951 and 2003. There was a marked increase in the number of divorces up to a peak of over 13,000 in 1985. Recent years have seen a slight fall from the levels recorded in the late 1980s and 1990s. It is probable that increasing levels of co-habitation may be relevant to the recent downward trend in divorces, since divorce proceedings are not necessary to sever such relationships.

The information in this report relates to divorces granted under the Divorce (Scotland) Act 1976 and covers divorces granted in Scotland, regardless of where the marriage took place.

Figure 1.26 Divorces, Scotland, 1951-2003

Figure 1.26 Divorces, Scotland, 1951-2003

Grounds for divorce

Figure 1.27 shows the trend in grounds for divorce between 1981 and 2003. The Divorce (Scotland) Act 1976 introduced new grounds for divorce – principally non-cohabitation, meaning that couples separated for two years (with consent) or five years could file for divorce on grounds of non-cohabitation.

Figure 1.27 Number of divorces, by grounds for divorce, Scotland, 1981-2003

Figure 1.27 Number of divorces, by grounds for divorce, Scotland, 1981-2003

In 2003, non-cohabitation was the most frequent reason for divorce, accounting for 82 per cent of all divorces. Non-cohabitation (2 years and consent) increased from 25 per cent of all divorces in 1981 to 55 per cent of all divorces in 2003; non-cohabitation (5 years) increased from 14 per cent to 27 per cent; and adultery as the stated reason for divorce fell from 17 per cent to 4 per cent.

Divorces by marital status

Of those divorcing in 2003, 15 per cent of both men and women had divorced previously. This compares with 8 per cent for males and 7 per cent for females in 1981. This is consistent with the increase in the proportion of all marriages where one or both participants was divorced previously (now 2 in 5 marriages compared with 1 in 4 twenty years ago).

Duration of marriages that ended in divorce

In 2003, the median duration of marriage ending in divorce was 14 years, whereas the comparable duration for 1981 was 9 years. In part, this increase will reflect the changing balance between cohabiting relationships and marriage.

Divorce by age at marriage

In 2003, 29 per cent of all divorces involved couples where at least one of the partners was aged 20 or under when they married. This is a significant fall from 60 per cent in 1981, but not unexpected given that the proportion of marriages where at least one of the partners was aged 20 or over has fallen from 36 per cent in 1981 to 4 per cent in 2003.

ADOPTIONS

The Registrar General recorded 468 adoptions during 2003 – 83 more than in 2002. However, this latest total represents around half the number recorded in the late 1980s and a quarter of the number recorded in the late 1940s.

Some 36 per cent of the children adopted in 2003 were adopted by a step-parent and 60 per cent were adopted by non-relatives of the child. Only 14 per cent of children adopted in 2003 were aged under two, nearly all being adopted by non-relatives. By contrast, only 18 per cent of the 120 adoptions of children aged over ten, were by non-relatives.

previous | contents | next