Scotland’s population is undergoing unprecedented change, according to new analysis from National Records of Scotland (NRS).
The Registrar General’s Annual Report ‘Scotland’s Population 2024’ examines trends across the many NRS statistical publications and finds the country experiencing record lows or highs across multiple measures.
Scotland’s population reached a new high of 5.55 million. NRS projects that if recent trends continue it will reach 5.8 million in 2047. At the same time, births and the fertility rate are at an all-time low and for the ninth year in a row there were more deaths than births in 2024. The age-standardised mortality rate in 2024 was the lowest since records began in 1994.
In the year to mid-2024, the population grew because approximately 56,400 more people moved to Scotland than left. Three quarters of them were from outside the UK. Since 2004, there has been a 43% increase in people aged 75 and over. This trend is set to continue with the country projected to see many more people in older age groups. From 2022 to 2047, it is projected that the 75 and over age group will grow by more than 341,000 people. This is mostly due to large numbers of births experienced between the 1940s and the 1960s, as people born during this time get older.
Head of population and migration statistics for NRS, Andrew White, said:
“These demographic changes bring opportunities and challenges to people in Scotland.
“Scotland’s population has never been so big or had as many people aged 75 and over. At the same time, we’ve never had so few births. These are unprecedented demographic shifts.
“Our statistics also inform the future. We are projecting a further significant increase in the number of people aged 75 and older in the coming decades. At the same time, the numbers of children and young adults are projected to decrease. This tells us that demand for age-related services such as childcare, education, housing, healthcare and social care will change.”
NRS estimates that there will be a fall of almost 80,000 in the number of children aged 0-15 between 2022 and 2047. It’s also projecting a fall of more than 57,000 in people aged 16 to 29. While NRS does project an increase of more than 144,000 30- to 59-year-olds, it still leaves Scotland with more people of pension age than it's ever had before and a working-age population slightly smaller than it is today.
Registrar General for Scotland, Alison Byrne OBE, said: “Scotland’s population is always changing in response to economic conditions, social attitudes and global events. The eldest of the post-second world war baby boom generation will shortly celebrate their 80th birthdays, the youngest have already entered their 60s. We can see these changes in our population projections. These figures are vital in planning to meet future needs.”
NRS stresses that change will not be uniform across the country. While 23 of Scotland’s local authorities are projected to see an increase in population over the next two decades, nine would see a decrease if recent trends continue.
