Main points
- There were an estimated 1,020 centenarians (people aged 100 and over) in Scotland in mid-2024. This was an increase of 4% from mid-2023.
- The majority of centenarians were female. In mid-2024, there were four times as many female centenarians as males. However, the number of males has been increasing faster than the number of females.
- Over the past decade from mid-2014, the number of male centenarians has grown by 58% whereas the number of female centenarians has grown by 5%.
- In mid-2024, there were an estimated 46,980 people aged 90 and over in Scotland. The number of people in this age group has increased by 19% since mid-2014.
- For the 90 and over age group, the number of males has increased by 47% since mid-2014, while the number of females has increased by 8%.
Introduction
This publication focuses on the population aged 90 and over, including centenarians (the population aged 100 and over) in mid-2024. It also looks at changes in the 10 years from mid-2014 to mid-2024.
All estimates presented refer to the population on 30 June (mid-year estimates). All ages relate to age at last birthday.
Population aged 90 and over in Scotland
How is the number of people aged 90 and over changing in Scotland?
The number of people aged 90 and over in Scotland has increased since the 1980s, reaching 46,980 in mid-2024.
There were notable decreases between mid-2006 and mid-2009, followed by a substantial rise between mid-2010 and mid-2012. This pattern reflects birth trends approximately 90 years earlier, with lower birth rates during World War I and a post-war increase.
Life expectancy is higher for females than for males. This means that there are more females in the older age groups, and the gap gets wider with increasing age. In Scotland in 2021-2023, average life expectancy at birth was 76.8 years for males and 80.8 years for females. More information on life expectancy can be found on the NRS Website.
Figure 1: There are more females than males aged 90 and over
Population aged 90 and over by sex, Scotland: mid-1981 to mid-2024
Figure 1 shows that in mid-2024, there were 46,980 people aged 90 and over in Scotland. There were almost twice as many females as males in this age group. However, the number of males in this age group has grown more quickly than the number of females over the past decade.
From mid-2014 to mid-2024, the population aged 90 and over has:
- Increased overall by 19% (+7,410)
- Increased for females by 8% (+2,220)
- Increased for males by 47% (+5,190)
Population aged 100 and over in Scotland
How is the number of centenarians in Scotland changing?
At mid-2024, there were an estimated 1,020 centenarians in Scotland (Figure 2). The overall number of centenarians has continued to increase, particularly among males. However, there was a decline between mid-2016 and mid-2018 followed by a rise between mid-2019 and mid-2021 due to the impact of the World War I cohort turning 100.
In the past decade to mid-2024 the centenarian population has:
- Increased overall by 12% (+110)
- Increased for females by 5% (+40)
- Increased for males by 58% (+70)
Between mid-2014 and mid-2024 male centenarians were the fastest growing age-sex group across the whole population (based on percentage change for 10 year age groups).
Figure 2: There were over four times more female than male centenarians.
Centenarians by sex, Scotland: mid-1981 to mid-2024
Figure 3 shows that, amongst 90 to 99 year olds, the number of males per 100 females has increased steadily from 39.3 to 53.5 over the decade since mid-2014. In the same period, for the centenarian age group, there was an increase in mid-2014 to mid-2015 before it then levelled off until mid-2024 where it was 22.9 males per 100 females. Although male centenarians have grown significantly in percentage terms, the large difference in the overall number of male and female centenarians means this has only a small effect on the male-to-female ratio.
Figure 3: The number of males in older age groups has grown more quickly than the number of females.
Males per 100 females, for the 90 and over and centenarian population, Scotland: mid-1981 to mid-2024
Figure 4 shows that since mid-2014 , the proportion of the total population who are female centenarians has fluctuated between 2.4 and 2.9 per 10,000 people. Over the same period, the proportion of male centenarians has shown a minor increase, rising from 0.5 to 0.7 per 10,000 by mid-2024. These recent patterns follow on from consistent increases in the numbers of centenarians per 10,000 people between 1981 and 2014. This reflects changes in life expectancy, which rose steadily from the early 1980s to the 2010s, before plateauing and then declining between 2012–2014 and 2018–2020. More recently, life expectancy has shown a slight improvement in 2021–2023.
Figure 4: There is a rising proportion of centenarians
Centenarians per 10,000 population by sex, Scotland: mid-1981 to mid-2024
Background notes
How are these estimates used?
These statistics give important insight into the fastest growing age group of Scotland’s population. It is important to have high quality statistics on this population, for policy development, planning and providing public services. These estimates can be used in areas such as:
- Finance allocation
- Informing pensions policy
- Housing planning
- Health and social care planning
- Looking at implications of an ageing population
- Calculation of Life Expectancy statistics
Methodology
For ages 0 to 89, NRS uses the cohort component method, based on census data. However, census estimates are less dependable for those aged 90 and over, so mid-year population estimates group everyone aged 90 and over together.
To estimate the population aged 90 and over by single year of age, NRS therefore uses the Kannisto-Thatcher (KT) method, which provides more robust single-year estimates for this age group This uses ‘age at death’ data to reconstruct how many people were alive at each age in previous years. For example, someone dying at 105 in 2024 was alive at 104 in 2023, 103 in 2022, and so on.
By combining several years of deaths data, the KT method estimates how many people are alive at each age, assuming negligible migration. Estimates use a five-year average of deaths data and are aligned with NRS mid-year estimates. Accuracy improves each year as more data becomes available. More information can be found in the methodology document.
Strengths and Limitations
Quality assurance takes place throughout the production of the centenarian’s publication, with checks in place to ensure consistency and completeness.
NRS produces centenarian estimates using deaths and mid-year population data, with quality checks throughout. However, deaths data can contain some inaccuracies (e.g. unverified birth and death dates), and estimates are constrained by census-based mid-year estimates, meaning any census errors are carried forward.
Information about our statistics
These statistics are designated as Accredited Official Statistics. More information about Official Statistics can be found on the Statistics governance and consultation page.
We also provide information about upcoming publications on our website.
If you would like receive updates on our statistics, you can register your interest on the Scottish Government ScotStat website.
