Scotland’s population is projected to fall from mid-2034
Scotland’s population is initially projected to grow by 0.3% until mid-2033; however, it is then projected to start falling. Over the 25 years to mid-2049, Scotland’s population is projected to decline by 1.3%.
Estimated and projected population of Scotland (in millions)
Main points
- Scotland’s population is projected to grow between mid-2024 and mid-2033, after which it is projected to fall year-on-year.
- In the nine years from mid-2024 to mid-2033, the population is projected to increase by 0.3% to 5.56 million. The population is then projected to fall below the mid-2024 base year estimate of 5.55 million by mid-2040. Over the 25 years from mid-2024 to mid-2049, Scotland’s population is projected to decrease by 1.3% to 5.47 million.
- While net migration to Scotland is projected to remain positive over the 25 years to mid-2049, there are also projected to be more deaths than births (natural decline) over this period. The projections suggest that this natural decline will outweigh the positive net migration.
- Scotland’s population is projected to age. The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by 300,700 over the 25 years to mid-2049. Meanwhile, the number of children (aged 0 to 15) and young adults (aged 16 to 29) are both projected to fall over the same period, by 165,900 and 157,500 respectively.
- The proportion of people who are of working age is projected to be slightly smaller in mid-2049 (64.1%) than in mid-2024 (64.6%). The proportion of the population of pensionable age is projected to increase from 19.2% in mid-2024 to 22.5% in mid-2049.
- The UK population is projected to increase from 69.3 million in mid-2024 to 72.4 million in mid-2049, an increase of 4.5% over the 25-year period. The growth in the UK population is driven largely by England’s population, which is projected to grow by 5.5% between mid-2024 and mid-2049; Wales has a projected population growth of 0.3% over the same period. The population of Northern Ireland is projected to decline by 1.0% over the 25 years to mid-2049.
- These projections are lower than the last set of projections for Scotland. The main reason for this is lower migration figures, particularly for long-term international migration, over the 25 years to mid-2049.
What are population projections?
Overview
This publication looks at the projected future population of Scotland over the 25 years to mid-2049.
These are 2024-based projections, and comparisons over time are therefore presented with mid-2024 as the base year.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) prepares population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries. The Scottish projections are prepared on behalf of National Records of Scotland (NRS). The projections are based on mid-year population estimates and a set of underlying demographic assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and migration. More information on the method and assumptions can be found in the Background section of this publication.
Uses and limitations
The national population projections are commonly used for planning and providing public services, fiscal forecasting and developing policy for the future. When making use of these projections, it is helpful to know what they are and what they are not.
Projections…
How is Scotland’s population projected to change?
The population of Scotland is projected to decrease
Scotland’s population is projected to continue increasing until mid-2033, apart from a small decrease in mid-2026. From mid-2034, Scotland’s population is projected to fall each year.
In the nine years from mid-2024 to mid-2033, the population is projected to increase by 0.3% to 5.56 million. The population is then projected to fall below the mid-2024 base year estimate of 5.55 million by mid-2040 (-0.1%). Over the 25 years from mid-2024 to mid-2049, Scotland’s population is projected to decrease by 1.3% to 5.47 million (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Scotland’s population is projected to decrease to 5.47 million by mid-2049
Estimated and projected population of Scotland, mid-2009 to mid-2049
Scotland’s population has increased from 5.23 million in mid-2009 to 5.55 million in mid-2024, but annual population change has fluctuated over recent years (Figure 2). With the exception of mid-2026, Scotland’s population is projected to continue increasing until mid-2033, with an average annual growth rate of 0.03%. Scotland’s population is then projected to decrease steadily, with an average annual population decline of 0.10% between mid-2034 and mid-2049.
Figure 2: Scotland’s population is projected to fall steadily from mid-2034
Estimated and projected annual population change for Scotland, mid-2009 to mid-2049
Why is Scotland’s population changing?
Population change is driven by two main components, natural change and net migration:
- Natural change = the number of births minus the number of deaths
- Net migration = the number of people moving into an area minus the number of people leaving
Figure 3: More people are projected to move to Scotland than leave over the 25 years to mid-2049
Estimated and projected net migration and natural change, mid-2009 to mid-2049
More people are projected to move to Scotland than leave over the next 25 years; however, from mid-2034, migration levels are projected to no longer fully offset the effects of negative natural change (Figure 3).
Since 2015, there have been more deaths than births each year (Figure 4). The gap between births and deaths (natural change) is projected to widen over the next 25 years to mid-2049. This is because Scotland has a growing population of older people, and people are having fewer children.
Figure 4: There have been more deaths than births each year since mid-2015, and the gap is projected to increase between mid-2024 and mid-2049
Estimated and projected births and deaths, mid-2009 to mid-2049
Where is migration to Scotland projected to come from?
Figure 5 shows that in recent years, both international and rest of the UK net migration have added to the population with more people coming to Scotland than leaving each year. This trend is projected to continue over the 25 years to mid-2049 with an average of 10,700 more people moving to Scotland from the rest of the UK each year than leaving, and 11,100 more people moving to Scotland from outside the UK each year than leaving.
Figure 5: Both net international and net rest of the UK migration are projected to remain positive over the 25 years to mid-2049
Estimated and projected net migration, mid-2009 to mid-2049
Projected levels of net long-term international migration are lower compared to the previous set of 2022-based projections (+19,500). This is due to a recent drop in estimated international migration which fed into the migration assumption setting process of these 2024-based projections. The latest, provisional UK-level international migration estimates can be found on the ONS website.
How is the age and sex structure of the population projected to change?
Age composition is one of the most important aspects of the population since changes in different age groups will have varied social and economic impacts. For example, increases in the population of older people are likely to place a greater demand on health and social services.
Figure 6: Scotland is projected to have more older people and fewer younger people in mid-2049 than in mid-2024
Estimated and projected population by age and sex, mid-2024 and mid-2049
The current (mid-2024) population structure includes a peak at around age 77 (post-war baby boomers), and a large bulge with people in their 50s and early 60s (born during the 1960s baby boom). As these baby boom generations age, with higher life expectancy than in previous generations, they are projected to make up a growing proportion of the population (Figure 6). The biggest change in age structure is seen among the oldest age groups. The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by 300,700 people over the 25 years to mid-2049 (Figure 7).
Also, as female life expectancy is projected to remain higher than male life expectancy, more females than males are projected to live into older age (Figure 6).
Figure 7: The largest increase in population over the 25 years to mid-2049 is projected to be in the 75 and over age group
Projected population change by age group, mid-2024 to mid-2049
The projections also indicate that the number of children in Scotland in mid-2049 is expected to be lower than current levels. The projections assume that the total fertility rate (TFR) will decrease slightly to 1.23 in the ten years to mid-2034; however, by mid-2049 TFR is assumed to have increased above the mid-2024 level (1.24) to 1.26. In these projections, ‘fertility’ means the total number of children a woman would have, on average, at the end of her childbearing years.
The number of young adults aged 16 to 29 years is also projected to decrease over the 25 years to mid-2049 (Figure 7).
How are the number of working and pensionable age people projected to change?
The proportion of the population of working age is projected to increase from 64.6% to 65.2% between mid-2024 and mid-2029 (Figure 8). This is partly due to planned increases to the state pension age. However, over the 25 years to mid-2049, the working age population is projected to decrease to 64.1%.
By mid-2049, the proportion of the population of pensionable age is projected to have increased to 22.5% (from 19.2% in mid-2024). This takes into account planned increases to the state pension age over this period (Figure 8).
Figure 8: The working age population accounted for 64.6% of all people living in Scotland in mid-2024, and this is projected to decline to 64.1% by mid-2049
Estimated and projected population by age group, mid-2004 to mid-2049
How is life expectancy projected to change in the future?
These projections are based on the assumption that life expectancy will increase from current levels (Figure 9), and the gap between life expectancy for males and females will continue to decrease slightly.
By mid-2049, life expectancy at birth is projected to have increased to 84.0 years for females and to 80.4 years for males.
Figure 9: Life expectancy is projected to increase over the next 25 years
Estimated and projected life expectancy by sex, 2007-2009 to mid-2049
Comparisons with the United Kingdom
The UK population is projected to increase from 69.3 million in mid-2024 to 71.0 million in mid-2034, up by 2.5% in the first ten years of the projections. It is then projected to increase further to 72.4 million in mid-2049, an increase of 4.5% over the 25-year period (Figure 10).
The growth in the UK population is driven largely by England’s population, which is projected to grow by 5.5% between mid-2024 and mid-2049. Wales has a projected population growth of 0.3% over the same period.
Both Scotland and Northern Ireland are projected to see a decline in their population in the 25 years to mid-2049, with a projected decline of -1.3% and -1.0%, respectively.
Figure 10: Scotland and Northern Ireland are projected to decline in population over the 25 years to mid-2049
Projected population change in UK constituent countries, mid-2024 to mid-2049
Scotland’s population made up 8.0% of the total UK population in mid-2024; this is projected to decrease to 7.8% in mid-2034 and to 7.6% in mid-2049.
Changes by age group
Comparing Scotland’s projected trends to the UK as a whole, and the other constituent countries, between mid-2024 and mid-2049:
- the number of children in Scotland is projected to decrease at a faster rate than for England and the UK as a whole, but at a slower rate than Wales and Northern Ireland (Figure 11).
- the working age population in Scotland is projected to decrease, whereas it is projected to increase for the UK as a whole. Northern Ireland is also projected to see a decrease in its working age population (Figure 12).
- the number of people of pension age in Scotland is projected to increase, but at a slower rate than for the UK as a whole. Northern Ireland is projected to have the highest percentage increase in people of pensionable age (Figure 13).
Figure 11: The number of children is projected to decrease across all areas of the UK
Projected population change by age group across the UK, children, mid-2024 to mid-2049
Figure 12: The number of people of working age is projected to decrease in Scotland and Northern Ireland
Projected population change by age group across the UK, working age, mid-2024 to mid-2049
Figure 13: The number of people of pensionable age is projected to increase across all areas of the UK
Projected population change by age group across the UK, pensionable age, mid-2024 to mid-2049
Components of population change
The factors driving population change are projected to be the same across the UK; however, levels are projected to vary between constituent countries. Between mid-2024 and mid-2049, all constituent countries of the UK are projected to have positive net migration and negative natural change (Figure 14).
In the 25 years to mid-2049, Scotland’s population is projected to:
- increase by 9.8% due to migration (second highest across the UK); but
- decrease by 11.1% due to natural change (largest negative percentage change).
This leads to a projected total population change of -1.3% for Scotland over the 25 years to mid-2049. The balance between levels of positive net migration and negative natural change in the other countries of the UK determines whether their population increases, as in England and Wales, or decreases, as in Northern Ireland (Figure 14).
Figure 14: All UK countries are projected to have positive net migration, and negative natural change over the 25 years to mid-2049
Projected percentage change from components of population change, UK, mid-2024 to mid-2049
Variant projections
As well as the principal population projections, a number of variant projections are also available. These are based on alternative assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration. The variants are useful for illustrating alternative scenarios and are not intended to represent upper or lower limits for future demographic behaviour. They are not forecasts of the most likely course of future events, but simply the outcome of a given set of assumptions.
Figure 15 details how the population could change under different variant assumptions.
Figure 15: Most variants indicate scenarios in which Scotland’s population is projected to decline by mid-2049 compared to mid-2024
Scotland’s population with variant assumptions, mid-2014 to mid-2049
Other variant projections are available on the NRS website, and in our interactive data visualisation. These include special case scenarios such as zero net migration, no long-term life expectancy improvement, replacement fertility, old age structure and young age structure.
Comparisons with previous projections
Compared with the previous four sets of population projections, the 2024-based set is the only one which projects the population to fall below its base year level by the end of its 25-year period (Figure 16).
Relative to the previous set of projections (2022-based), both the projected long-term total fertility rate and international migration levels are lower than the previous set of projections. For example, the lower projected level of net long-term international migration is due to a recent drop in estimated international migration, which fed into the assumption setting for this set of projections. The latest, provisional UK-level international migration estimates can be found on the ONS website.
A comparison of the assumptions used for Scotland (and the UK) in the 2024-based and 2022-based set of projections can be found in Table 1 in the background notes of this report.
Figure 16: The 2024-based principal projections project a declining population over the 25-year period
Comparison of 2024-based population projections with previous projections
Background
Methodology
The 2024-based national population projections are based on the estimated population at 30 June 2024 and a set of demographic assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration based on analysis of past trends and expert advice. Given the uncertainty in demographic behaviour, additional variant projections are also produced. These variants are produced in the same way as the principal projection but use alternative assumptions.
The national population projections are produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on behalf of National Records of Scotland (NRS). This ensures that the projections for Scotland are consistent and comparable with those for the other constituent countries of the United Kingdom.
This release supersedes the 2022-based projections and accompanying variants.
More information on the method used to produce these projections is available from the National Population Projections Quality and Methodology report on the ONS Website.
State Pension age
In this report, working age and pensionable age populations are based on State Pension age (SPA) for the given year. Women's SPA increased to 65 between April 2016 and November 2018. From December 2018, the SPA for both men and women increased to reach 66 by October 2020 (Pensions Act 2011). Between 2026 and 2027 SPA will increase to 67 years for both sexes (Pensions Act 2014). SPA will increase to 68 years for both men and women by 2046 (Pensions Act 2007).
Assumptions for the principal projections
The assumptions used for Scotland and the UK in the principal (main) projections are shown below in Table 1. For comparison, the assumptions from the 2022-based projections are also provided.
Table 1: Assumptions for the 2024-based and 2022-based principal projections Scotland and the UK
| |
Scotland |
United Kingdom |
| |
2022-based principal projections |
2024-based principal projections |
2022-based principal projections |
2024-based principal projections |
| Long-term fertility (Total Fertility Rate - TFR) |
1.29 |
1.26 |
1.45 |
1.42 |
| Life expectancy females (mid-2049) |
84.0 |
84.0 |
85.8 |
85.9 |
| Life expectancy males (mid-2049) |
80.3 |
80.4 |
82.2 |
82.4 |
| Net migration from the rest of the UK (mid-2049) |
10,300 |
10,400 |
[not applicable] |
[not applicable] |
| International net migration (mid-2049) |
19,500 |
11,500 |
340,000 |
230,000 |
| Total net migration (mid-2049) |
29,800 |
21,900 |
340,000 |
230,000 |
Fertility
The total fertility rate (TFR) represents the average number of children born per woman if women experienced the age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) of the year in question throughout their childbearing lives. For the 2024-based projections, the long-term total fertility rate for Scotland is assumed to be 1.26.
Mortality
The 2024-based mortality assumptions were based upon analysis of past rates and annual percentage changes in mortality rates by age and year. For the 2024-based projections, the principal annual rate of mortality improvement was set at 1.1%. This is the same as the previous set of projections.
Migration
Migration between Scotland and the rest of the UK is calculated using a rates-based model based on trends in migration between the constituent countries of the UK over the last 10 years. Long-term international net migration is based on 10 years of international migration data (mid-2013 to mid-2021 and mid-2025) and expert advice.
More details about the methodology and the decision making process behind the national population projections can be found on the ONS website.
Assumptions for variant projections
The assumptions for the 2024-based principal projection and selected variants (in Figure 13) are shown in Table 2 below. The assumptions for the long-term total fertility rate vary from a low of 1.06 to a high of 1.46. For life expectancy, the differing mortality assumptions result in a range of 83.2 years to 85.1 years for females in mid-2049, and 79.5 years to 81.7 years for males in mid-2049. The low and high assumptions for net international migration vary from 5,000 to 22,500 in mid-2049.
Table 2: Long-term assumptions for variant population projections
| |
Life expectancy at birth |
Net migration (rounded to the nearest 100) |
| Variant |
Long-term total fertility rate (TFR) |
Females (mid-2049) |
Males (mid-2049) |
Rest of the UK (mid-2049) |
International (mid-2049) |
Total (mid-2049) |
| Principal projection |
1.26 |
84.0 |
80.4 |
10,400 |
11,500 |
21,900 |
| High population |
1.46 |
85.1 |
81.7 |
11,500 |
22,500 |
34,000 |
| High migration |
1.26 |
84.0 |
80.4 |
11,100 |
22,500 |
33,600 |
| High fertility |
1.46 |
84.0 |
80.4 |
10,800 |
11,500 |
22,300 |
| High life expectancy |
1.26 |
85.1 |
81.7 |
10,400 |
11,500 |
21,900 |
| Low life expectancy |
1.26 |
83.2 |
79.5 |
10,400 |
11,500 |
21,900 |
| Low fertility |
1.06 |
84.0 |
80.4 |
10,000 |
11,500 |
21,500 |
| Low migration |
1.26 |
84.0 |
80.4 |
10,000 |
5,000 |
15,000 |
| Low population |
1.06 |
83.2 |
79.5 |
9,600 |
5,000 |
14,600 |
Strengths and limitations
Population projections have limitations. A projection is a calculation showing what happens if particular assumptions are made. The population projections are trend-based. They are, therefore, not policy-based forecasts of what the government expects to happen. Many social and economic factors influence population change, including policies adopted by both central and local government. The relationships between the various factors are complex and largely unknown.
The reliability of projections decreases over time, and projections tend to be less reliable in periods of rapid change. Projections for areas with small populations tend to be less reliable than those for areas with large populations. Projections of the number of adults (particularly older people) are usually more reliable than those for children because they are based on people who are already living in Scotland. Migration tends to fluctuate more than fertility or mortality, and it is harder to measure, so there tends to be more uncertainty around the migration figures.
Population projections for other areas
NRS also publish projections for other areas including:
- Population Projections for Scottish Areas - the 2024-based projections for Scottish areas are currently planned for publication in autumn 2026. This breaks down the national projections from this publication to council and health board areas.
- Household projections - the 2024-based household projections for Scotland are currently planned for publication in late 2026.
Population projections for the UK and its constituent countries are available from the ONS website.
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