Key Points
- Scotland’s population reached a record high of 5.55 million in 2024
- The increase was mainly due to migration into Scotland
- There were more deaths than births so the population would have gone down without migration
- The population is getting older with the ‘baby boom’ generation born between the 1940s and the 1960s reaching older age
- People are also living longer than they used to in previous generations, and having fewer children
- Scotland’s population is projected to keep growing, with migration the main reason for this growth
- The population is also projected to keep ageing into 2047 as the youngest of the ‘baby boom’ generation reach their 80s
- Change will not be uniform across the country. While 23 of Scotland’s local authorities are projected to see an increase in population over the next two decades, nine would see a decrease if recent trends continue
Current Situation (as of mid-2024)
“Scotland’s population reached a record high of 5.5 million. Migration is the main reason for this growth.”
Andrew White, Head of Population and Migration Statistics, National Records of Scotland
Scotland’s population reached 5.55 million in mid-2024. This marks an increase of 40,900 people (0.7%) over the previous year, continuing a trend of growth.
Figure 1: Scotland’s population reached 5.55 million on 30 June 2024
Scotland’s population, mid-1949 to mid-2024
Source: Mid-2024 population estimates - National Records of Scotland (NRS)
The main driver of this rise is migration, rather than the difference between numbers of births and deaths (‘natural change’). International migration contributed around 42,600 people, while migration from other parts of the UK added 13,800. In contrast, Scotland experienced more deaths than births during the same period, with 62,000 deaths compared to 46,400 births, highlighting the growing importance of migration in sustaining, and increasing, population numbers over the last two decades.
Figure 2: In recent years more people have moved into Scotland than left, while deaths have exceeded births
Natural change (the difference between the number of births and deaths) and net migration (the difference between people entering and leaving a population due to migration), Scotland, mid-1960 to mid-2024
Source: Mid-2024 population estimates - National Records of Scotland (NRS)
At the same time, Scotland’s population is ageing. One in five people (20.5%) are now aged 65 and over, up from 16.2% two decades ago. Meanwhile, the proportion of children has declined: only 16.2% of the population is aged 0 to 15, down from 18.4% in 2004. These shifts underline significant demographic changes that will shape Scotland’s future.
Figure 3: The largest increase in population between 2004 and 2024 was in the 60 to 74 age group
Population change by age group, Scotland, mid-2004 to mid-2024
“Scotland’s population is projected to grow to 5.8 million by 2047, driven entirely by migration. At the same time, the country is projected to age rapidly, with over 340,000 more people aged 75 and over. There are projected to be fewer children and young adults, and the share of people of pension age is projected to rise to over 1 in 5. These changes will shape Scotland’s future workforce, public services, and communities.”
Andrew White, Head of Population and Migration Statistics, National Records of Scotland
Scotland’s population is projected to continue growing over the next two decades, reaching around 5.8 million by 2047. These figures come from our population projections, which estimate what the future population might look like based on recent trends in births, deaths, and migration.
Figure 4: Scotland’s population is projected to increase steadily until 2047
Estimated and projected population of Scotland, mid-2007 to mid-2047
Source: Projected Population of Scotland: 2022-based - National Records of Scotland (NRS); Mid-2024 population estimates - National Records of Scotland (NRS)
The growth is expected to be driven entirely by migration, as the number of deaths is projected to keep outstripping the number of births.
At the same time, the population is set to age further. The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to rise by 341,300, as the ‘baby boom’ generation between the 1940s and the 1960s moves into this age bracket. Meanwhile the number of children and young adults is expected to fall.
By 2047, the share of people of pensionable age is projected to increase from 19.2% in 2024 to 21.5%. The makeup of the older population is also projected to change as the youngest of the ‘baby boom’ generation reach their 80s. This means the population in older age groups will be more evenly spread between the 60 to 74 age group (959,900 people) and the 75 and over age group (839,300 people).
Figure 5: The largest increase in population over the 25 years to mid-2047 is projected to be in the 75 and over age group
Projected population change by age group, mid-2022 to mid-2047
Key Challenges and Opportunities
Scotland’s population is undergoing significant demographic change, shaped by fewer births, people living longer than they used to in previous generations, and migration patterns. These shifts bring both challenges and opportunities for the country’s future.
An Ageing Population
Fewer births and people living longer than they used to in previous generations mean Scotland’s population is moving toward older age groups. Women make up a larger share of these older age groups because they tend to live longer than men.
Fertility at Record Lows
Fertility rates are at their lowest ever - around 1.3 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1. More mothers are having babies later in life, and fertility rates vary across Scotland. City council areas have the lowest rates, with Edinburgh at 0.99, while Midlothian has the highest at 1.66. Women in the most deprived areas have more children on average (1.41) than those in the least deprived areas (1.21).
Deaths Outnumber Births
All health boards are projected to see more deaths than births, reflecting Scotland’s older population rather than increased mortality rates. Older populations have higher death rates because mortality increases with age. In 2024, the age-standardised mortality rate, which takes into account the size and age structure of the population, was the lowest since records began in 1994. Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease remain significant causes of death, particularly among women - around two-thirds of such deaths were female. These conditions are 1.3 times more likely in the most deprived areas compared to the least deprived.
Figure 6: More people are now dying from Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease
Age-standardised rate of mortality (per 100,000 population) for Scotland
Source: Vital Events Reference Tables 2024 - National Records of Scotland (NRS)
Migration
Migration plays a key role in shaping Scotland’s population. People moving here through international migration tend to be younger than the population overall, helping to offset ageing trends.
Regional Differences
Most council areas projected to decline in population are in the west of Scotland, and many island and rural areas are expected to see either decreases or growth below the national average.
Figure 7: Most of the council areas projected to decline in population are located in the west of Scotland
Map of projected percentage change in population, council areas, mid-2022 to mid-2032
