National Records of Scotland

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Analysis of the 1996-based Household Projections for Scotland

Analysis of the 1996-based Household Projections for Scotland

HSG/1998/5

Contents

1. Summary Information for Scotland
2. Projected households in Scotland by household type
3. Projected households in Scotland by age group of head of household
4. Projected households in Scotland by household type and age group of head of household
5. Projected households in Scotland by local authority and household type
6. Projected households in Scotland by local authority: One person households as a percentage of all households
7. Projected average household size in Scotland by local authority
8. Projected households in Scotland by structure plan area (SPA) and household type

1. Summary information for Scotland

(Table 1)

The number of households in Scotland is projected to increase by 10 per cent (210,000) from 2,136,000 in 1996 to 2,346,000 in 2010.

There were an estimated 640,000 one person households in 1996, 30 per cent of all households. These are projected to increase to 806,000 by the year 2010, and account for 34 per cent of all households.

The private household population is projected to fall from 5.021 million in 1996 to 4.951 million in 2010, in line with the projected fall in total population.

The average household size is projected to fall, from 2.4 persons in 1996 to 2.1 persons in 2010.

The projections indicate a 26 per cent increase in one person households between 1996 and 2010, a 16 per cent increase in households with two or more adults, a 22 per cent increase in households with one adult with children, offset somewhat by a 25 per cent decrease in households which have 2 or more adults with children.

2. Projected households in Scotland by household type

(Table 2)

The numbers of households are projected to increase over the projection period for all household types with the exception of those households with two or more adults and one or more children, which are projected to fall by 25 per cent from 492,000 to 367,000.

Of all household types, one person male households are projected to increase by the largest percentage (33 per cent) from over 258,000 in 1996 to under 344,000 in 2010.

Households consisting of two adults and no children form the largest single category of all households, at around 29 per cent in 1996 and are projected to rise slightly to 30 per cent in 2010. When these are combined with households with 3 or more adults, they account for between 41 and 43 per cent of all households during the projection period.

Lone adults with children account for only 6 per cent of all households throughout the projection period.

3. Projected households in Scotland by age group of head of household

(Table 3)

Between 1996 and 2010, it is projected that around one third of households will be headed by a person aged 60 or over whilst less than one in seven households will be headed by a person under the age of thirty throughout the projection period.

Households headed by a person aged 35-44 are estimated to account for a further 19 per cent of all households in 1996 and are projected to increase to 21 per cent before dropping to 19 per cent again by 2010.

The largest percentage changes projected over the period are increases in households headed by a person aged 85 or over (28 per cent) and those headed by a person aged 45-54 (27 per cent). The largest percentage decrease is projected for households headed by a person aged 30-34( projected to fall by 22 per cent).

4. Projected households in Scotland by household type and age group of head of household

(Table 4)

Between 1996 and 2010 the projections indicate an overall increase of 33 per cent in households consisting of one male adult. The largest percentage changes for this household type are for those where the person is aged 45 to 54 (projected to increase by 57 per cent), and those aged 60 to 64 (projected to increase by 52 per cent).

The number of households which consist of one female adult living alone are projected to increase by 21 per cent over the projection period. The biggest percentage changes for this household type are seen for those females aged between 16 and 24, where the projected increase is 45 per cent, and for those in the age groups 35-44 and 45-54 where the projected increases are 36 and 38 per cent respectively. However, the largest projected increase in terms of numbers of households is for those aged 75 or more, where an increase of 31,400 households is projected.

Throughout the projection period almost one fifth of all households consist of one female living alone, over two thirds of whom (over 250,000 in 1996 and rising to over 300,000 in 2010) are aged 60 or over. In contrast, over the projection period only one third of males living alone are aged 60 or over.

The numbers of households consisting of one adult with children are projected to increase by 22 per cent between 1996 and 2010. For these households, the projected increase is almost 50 per cent where the adult is aged between 16 and 24, from just over 22,000 in 1996 to almost 33,000 in 2010. A slight decrease of 1 per cent is projected for this household type where the head of household is aged between 30 and 34.

In 1996, households which consist of two or more adults with children form the second largest proportion, at almost one quarter, of all households. However, the numbers are projected to decrease by approximately a quarter, and by 2010 will drop to third largest in terms of numbers of households. The largest decrease for this household type, at 50 per cent, is projected to be amongst those households headed by a person aged 25 to 29.

Throughout the projection period over two fifths of households consist of two or more adults with no children. The number of households of this type is projected to increase from 883,300 in 1996 to 1,025,500 in 2010. The largest projected increase for this household type (38 per cent) is for households headed by a person in the 45-54 age group, from 206,900 in 1996 to 286,400 in 2010.

5. Projected households in Scotland by local authority and household type

(Tables 5a-e)

The projections for West Lothian and Aberdeenshire show the largest percentage increases in total households between 1996 and 2010 at over 20 per cent each. The projections for Dundee City, East Ayrshire, Glasgow City and West Dunbartonshire show the smallest projected increases at between 2 and 4 per cent. The number of households in Inverclyde, however, is projected to decrease by 4 per cent over the same period. The largest numerical increase is projected for the City of Edinburgh; an increase of almost 25,000 households.

It should be noted at this point that projections for areas with small populations tend to be less reliable than those for areas with large populations. Refer to Annex B.2.

Chart 4

Percentage change in households projected between 1996 and 2010 - Total households
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The numbers of one person households are also projected to increase by the largest percentages in West Lothian and Aberdeenshire, at around 46 and 45 per cent respectively. The numbers of this type of household in East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire are also projected to increase by more than 40 per cent. Inverclyde and Glasgow City have the lowest percentage increase projected in the numbers of one person households, at just 11 and 13 per cent respectively, although in Glasgow City this accounts for the second largest increase in terms of numbers of households (13,600). The City of Edinburgh has the largest projected increase in terms of numbers, at around 16,000.

Households with one adult and children are projected to increase in all local authority areas with the largest percentage increase being in Stirling (41 per cent). The smallest percentage increase projected is for Inverclyde with only a 3 per cent increase over the period. The largest increase numerically for this household type is projected to be in Glasgow City; an increase of approximately 4,700 over the period.

All local authority areas, show a decrease in the numbers of households with two or more adults and children between 1996 and 2010. Dundee City and Inverclyde have the largest percentage decrease (respectively 39 and 37 per cent) with Eilean Siar showing the smallest percentage decrease over the period at 7 per cent. Again Glasgow City is projected to have the largest numerical change with a decrease of 14,200 between 1996 and 2010.

Households containing two or more adults with no children are projected to increase in all local authority areas between 1996 and 2010, with the largest percentage increase in Aberdeenshire, (33 per cent). Inverclyde is projected to have the smallest increase at 4 per cent, with Glasgow City, Dundee City, West Dunbartonshire and East Ayrshire also projected to have increases in this type of household of less than 10 per cent. In terms of numbers of households, the City of Edinburgh is projected to have the largest increase, of over 13,000 households.

6. Projected households in Scotland by local authority: One person households as a percentage of all households

(Table 6)

The percentage of all households which consist of one person living alone is projected to increase from 30 per cent in 1996 to 34 per cent in 2010, with all authorities projected to have a higher percentage of single person households in 2010 than in 1996. Of all the authority areas Glasgow City is projected to have the highest percentage of one person households over the projection period; 37 per cent in 1996 increasing to 41 per cent by 2010. East Dunbartonshire is projected to have the lowest percentage of one person households throughout the period, increasing from 22 per cent in 1996 to 28 per cent in 2010.

7. Projected average household size in Scotland by local authority

(Table 7)

The average household size in Scotland is projected to decrease from 2.35 persons in 1996 to 2.11 persons in 2010. There is projected to be a decrease of this household type in all local authorities during the period.

East Dunbartonshire had the largest estimated average household size in 1996, at 2.64 persons. By 2010 it is projected that East Renfrewshire will join East Dunbartonshire in having the largest average household size at 2.36 persons.

In 1996 Aberdeen City had the smallest estimated average household size (2.17 persons), followed by Dundee City, Glasgow City, the City of Edinburgh and Inverclyde, all with between 2.20 and 2.25 persons. By the year 2010, four local authorities are projected to have average household sizes of less than 2 persons; Aberdeen City at 1.93, Glasgow City at 1.97 and Dundee City and Inverclyde at 1.99 persons.

8. Projected households in Scotland by structure plan area (SPA) and household type

(Tables 8a-e)

Of all the structure plan areas, total households are projected to increase by the largest percentage in Highland SPA, at 17 per cent, followed by Orkney at 16 per cent. Dundee & Angus SPA has the smallest projected percentage change over the period at only 5 per cent. The largest increases in terms of numbers of households are in Glasgow & the Clyde Valley SPA, and in Edinburgh and the Lothians SPA, with increases of approximately 46,000 in each area.

In both one person households and in households with two or more adults and no children, the Highland SPA and Dundee & Angus SPA are also projected to have the largest and smallest projected increases respectively.

For households consisting of one adult and one or more children Stirling & Clackmannanshire SPA is projected to have the highest percentage increase between 1996 and 2010 (33 per cent), whilst Eilean Siar SPA is projected to have the smallest percentage decrease at 16 per cent.

Households consisting of two or more adults with children are projected to decrease in all SPA’s over the projection period. The smallest percentage decrease is projected in Eilean Siar SPA (7 per cent) and the largest in Dundee & Angus SPA at 33 per cent.