National Records of Scotland

Preserving the past, Recording the present, Informing the future

Comparisons with previous household projections

Comparisons with previous household projections

Household projections for Scotland are published every two years. Chart 6 compares the total number of households projected by the latest (2004-based) household projections, and previous projections. In the past, household projections covered a 14-year period but, in response to demand from users, the 2004-based household projections cover a 20-year period.

The 2002-based projections suggested an average increase of around 11,700 households per year between 2002 and 2016; the 2004-based projections foresee an average increase of around 14,800 households per year between 2004 and 2024. Given that the two sets of projections cover different years, it is difficult to compare these figures directly. To provide a more direct comparison, we can select the period of 2004 to 2016 - the 2002-based projections showed an average increase of 12,000 households, while the 2004-based projections show an average increase of 16,700 over the same period (in the 2004-based projections, the yearly increase drops in the later years, reflecting changes in the population projections over this period). 

The difference between the 2002- and 2004-based household projections is mainly due to the higher population projections. The 2002-based projections were lower than in previous years, following adjustments made in light of evidence from the 2001 Census.

Chart 7 shows the 2002- and 2004-based population and household projections. The 2004-based population projections were higher than the previous set of projections, due to a combination of higher net migration into Scotland, a slightly higher projected birth rate and a slightly lower projected death rate. The household projections are based on the population projections, which is why the 2004-based household projections are higher than the 2002-based projections.