National Records of Scotland

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Annex A - Background and List of Available Variants

Annex A - Background and List of Available Variants

Background

The 2004-based projections are the latest for which variant projections have been published for Scotland.  A list of the principal and variant assumptions can be found in the tables below.  Detailed results can be found within the Projections database section of the Government Actuary's Department website.

List of Available Variants

The 2004-based variant population projections are based on the following categories of assumptions.

Table A - Assumptions

 

Fertility

Life Expectancy

Migration

Standard variants

A

High

High

High

B

Principal

Principal

Principal

C

Low

Low

Low

Special case scenarios

D

Replacement

No improvement

Zero

E

Constant

 

 

From these assumptions, the following 19 projection variants have been created.

Table B - Variants

 

Fertility

Life expectancy

Migration

1

Principal projection

Principal

Principal

Principal

Standard 'single component' variants

2

High fertility

High

Principal

Principal

3

Low fertility

Low

Principal

Principal

4

High life expectancy

Principal

High

Principal

5

Low life expectancy

Principal

Low

Principal

6

High migration

Principal

Principal

High

7

Low migration

Principal

Principal

Low

Standard 'combination' variants

8

High population

High

High

High

9

Low population

Low

Low

Low

10

Young

High

Low

High

11

Old

Low

High

Low

12

High medium-term dependency [Footnote 1]

High

High

Low

13

Low medium-term dependency  [Footnote 1]

Low

Low

High

Special case scenarios

14

Replacement fertility

Replacement

Principal

Principal

15

Constant fertility

Constant

Principal

Principal

16

No mortality improvement

Principal

No improvement

Principal

17

Natural change only
(zero migration)

Principal

Principal

Zero

18

No change

Constant

No improvement

Principal

19

Stationary

Replacement

No improvement

Zero

Footnote

1. In the long-term, the Old and Young variants produce the highest and lowest (respectively) overall dependency ratios of all the possible combination variants.

All statistical publications