National Records of Scotland

Preserving the past, Recording the present, Informing the future

Annex C Migration Assumptions

Annex C Migration Assumptions

The long term assumption for net migration to Scotland is +4,000 each year compared with -1,500 in the previous projections. This increase follows two years where migration has increased sharply compared with previous years.  Figure C1 illustrates the trends since 1951.

Migration assumptions for the initial years are designed to reflect recent rates of migration, and gradually converge to the long-term assumptions.

The long term assumptions are comprised of:



International migration


The cross-border assumptions are derived from the average of moves recorded through the National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) system over the last 10 years. The international migration assumption is based largely on International Passenger Survey data (IPS), with adjustments for visitors who stay for a longer period, and also for the unmeasured migration which was identified following analysis of the 2001 Census.

The short term assumptions for total net migration are:






+ 8,500

These reflect recent migration data and also include an additional allowance for migrants from the A8 Accession countries. A separate allowance was necessary as EU enlargement took place in May 2004 and the effects are therefore not yet adequately reflected in the usual migration data series on which assumptions are based.

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