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Population Comparisons with 1998-based Projections
Population Comparisons with 1998-based Projections
Some comments on the differences between the assumptions used in preparing these latest projections and the previous, 1998-based, projections were given in Section 2. The table below summarises the differences between the projected populations.
Comparison of 1998- and 2000-based population projections by health board areas
(thousands)
| 2000 |
2006 |
2011 |
2016 |
|||||
|
Health board area |
1998-based |
2000-based |
1998-based |
2000-based |
1998-based |
2000-based |
1998-based |
2000-based |
| Scotland | 5,110.9 | 5,114.6 | 5,097.9 | 5,077.8 | 5,087.3 | 5,046.5 | 5,077.6 | 5,013.8 |
| Argyll & Clyde | 424.0 | 423.5 | 416.3 | 413.7 | 409.7 | 405.5 | 403.2 | 397.0 |
| Ayrshire & Arran | 373.9 | 373.4 | 370.7 | 366.5 | 367.8 | 360.4 | 364.7 | 353.7 |
| Borders | 106.4 | 106.9 | 106.9 | 107.0 | 107.1 | 106.5 | 107.2 | 105.8 |
| Dumfries & Galloway | 147.0 | 145.8 | 145.3 | 142.1 | 143.4 | 138.8 | 141.3 | 135.2 |
| Fife | 349.3 | 350.4 | 349.4 | 350.5 | 349.0 | 349.6 | 348.5 | 348.4 |
| Forth Valley | 276.4 | 278.0 | 279.3 | 281.3 | 281.5 | 283.8 | 283.7 | 286.4 |
| Grampian | 523.4 | 523.4 | 521.0 | 513.9 | 518.1 | 505.3 | 514.8 | 495.7 |
| Greater Glasgow | 905.9 | 904.4 | 893.5 | 893.3 | 887.0 | 888.5 | 882.2 | 886.1 |
| Highland | 208.5 | 208.6 | 209.3 | 207.4 | 209.2 | 205.3 | 208.5 | 202.5 |
| Lanarkshire | 560.5 | 562.0 | 559.3 | 560.9 | 557.0 | 558.9 | 553.6 | 555.8 |
| Lothian | 778.4 | 783.6 | 796.4 | 802.4 | 812.8 | 818.5 | 830.6 | 835.6 |
| Orkney | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.3 | 18.9 | 19.1 | 18.2 | 18.9 | 17.5 |
| Shetland | 22.9 | 22.4 | 23.0 | 21.9 | 23.0 | 21.8 | 23.1 | 21.6 |
| Tayside | 387.2 | 385.5 | 382.0 | 372.4 | 377.5 | 361.4 | 373.2 | 350.1 |
| Western Isles | 27.5 | 27.2 | 26.3 | 25.5 | 25.2 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 22.4 |
For Scotland, while the latest projections are higher in the year 2000 compared with the 1998-based projections, they are lower in all the following years up to 2016. However this pattern varies considerably at health board level. The majority of the health boards are projected to have lower populations in 2016 in the 2000-based projections than in the 1998-based projections, particularly the Island Areas and Tayside. In contrast, Forth Valley, Lothian, Greater Glasgow and Lanarkshire are now projected to have larger populations in 2016 than in the 1998-based projections.