National Records of Scotland

Preserving the past, Recording the present, Informing the future

Population Comparisons with 1998-based Projections

Population Comparisons with 1998-based Projections

Some comments on the differences between the assumptions used in preparing these latest projections and the previous, 1998-based, projections were given in Section 2. The table below summarises the differences between the projected populations.

Comparison of 1998- and 2000-based population projections by health board areas

(thousands)

  2000

 2006

 2011

 2016

Health board area

1998-based

2000-based

1998-based

2000-based

1998-based

2000-based

1998-based

2000-based

Scotland 5,110.9 5,114.6 5,097.9 5,077.8 5,087.3 5,046.5 5,077.6 5,013.8
Argyll & Clyde 424.0 423.5 416.3 413.7 409.7 405.5 403.2 397.0
Ayrshire & Arran 373.9 373.4 370.7 366.5 367.8 360.4 364.7 353.7
Borders 106.4 106.9 106.9 107.0 107.1 106.5 107.2 105.8
Dumfries & Galloway 147.0 145.8 145.3 142.1 143.4 138.8 141.3 135.2
Fife 349.3 350.4 349.4 350.5 349.0 349.6 348.5 348.4
Forth Valley 276.4 278.0 279.3 281.3 281.5 283.8 283.7 286.4
Grampian 523.4 523.4 521.0 513.9 518.1 505.3 514.8 495.7
Greater Glasgow 905.9 904.4 893.5 893.3 887.0 888.5 882.2 886.1
Highland 208.5 208.6 209.3 207.4 209.2 205.3 208.5 202.5
Lanarkshire 560.5 562.0 559.3 560.9 557.0 558.9 553.6 555.8
Lothian 778.4 783.6 796.4 802.4 812.8 818.5 830.6 835.6
Orkney 19.5 19.5 19.3 18.9 19.1 18.2 18.9 17.5
Shetland 22.9 22.4 23.0 21.9 23.0 21.8 23.1 21.6
Tayside 387.2 385.5 382.0 372.4 377.5 361.4 373.2 350.1
Western Isles 27.5 27.2 26.3 25.5 25.2 24.0 24.0 22.4

For Scotland, while the latest projections are higher in the year 2000 compared with the 1998-based projections, they are lower in all the following years up to 2016. However this pattern varies considerably at health board level. The majority of the health boards are projected to have lower populations in 2016 in the 2000-based projections than in the 1998-based projections, particularly the Island Areas and Tayside. In contrast, Forth Valley, Lothian, Greater Glasgow and Lanarkshire are now projected to have larger populations in 2016 than in the 1998-based projections.

All statistical publications