National Records of Scotland

Preserving the past, Recording the present, Informing the future

Results of the Projections

Results of the Projections

Scotland

Following a steady decline over most of the 1980s, small increases in the population of Scotland were recorded in each of the seven years up to 1995 followed by a decrease in each year up to 2000. The 2000-based projection shows the total population of Scotland continuing to fall slowly from 5.11 million in 2000 to 5.02 million by 2016. The slow but steady population decline is a result of the increasing excess of deaths over births.

Components of population change

(thousands)

Year

Start population (at mid year)

Births

Deaths

Migration

Change

2000-01

5,114.6

52.7

56.7

-2.0

-5.9

2001-02

5,108.7

52.1

58.5

-0.5

-7.0

2002-03

5,101.7

52.1

58.1

0.0

-6.0

2003-04

5,095.7

51.9

57.7

0.0

-5.9

2004-05

5,089.8

51.5

57.4

0.0

-6.0

2005-06

5,083.9

51.1

57.2

0.0

-6.1

2006-07

5,077.8

50.8

57.0

0.0

-6.2

2007-08

5,071.6

50.6

56.8

0.0

-6.3

2008-09

5,065.4

50.4

56.7

0.0

-6.3

2009-10

5,059.1

50.4

56.6

0.0

-6.3

2010-11

5,052.8

50.3

56.6

0.0

-6.3

2011-12

5,046.5

50.3

56.6

0.0

-6.3

2012-13

5,040.2

50.3

56.7

0.0

-6.4

2013-14

5,033.8

50.3

56.8

0.0

-6.5

2014-15

5,027.3

50.3

57.0

0.0

-6.6

2015-16

5,020.7

50.3

57.1

0.0

-6.8

2016

5,013.8

 

 

 

 

Council and health board areas

Of the 15 health board areas the populations of two are projected to increase between 2000 and 2016, one remains relatively constant, and the remaining twelve show projected falls in population (Table 1 and Figure 1). Lothian (+7 per cent) and Forth Valley (+3 per cent) are the two health board areas with the projected increases in population while Western Isles (-17 per cent) and Orkney (-10 per cent) show the greatest decreases as shown in the chart below.

Figure 1 Percentage change in population between 2000 and 2016, by health board area

Amongst council areas, the largest percentage gains in the period 2000 to 2016 are 12 per cent for both Stirling and West Lothian and 11 per cent for East Lothian (Table 1). Over the same period, Dundee City shows the sharpest decline (19 per cent), followed by Eilean Siar (17 per cent) and Inverclyde (12 per cent).

Age analysis

Although there are differences from area to area, the general pattern is of an ageing population (Table 2 & Table 3 and Figure 2).

Projected Population by broad age groups,

The number of children under 5 is projected to fall by 5 per cent between 2000 and 2006, and then declines at a slower pace up to 2016. The largest decline is projected for Eilean Siar (-19 per cent by 2006 and -41 per cent by 2016). In this age group Stirling (+10 per cent) shows the largest projected increase by 2016.

For 5-14 year-olds the population is projected to fall slowly at first and then more rapidly after 2006. The largest fall is in Orkney (-38 per cent by 2016) closely followed by Eilean Siar and Dundee City (-37 per cent by 2016).

In the age range 15-29, the peak ages for migration, the population remains relatively stable across Scotland. The steepest fall by 2016 is Eilean Siar (-36 per cent). By the end of the projection period East Lothian and Stirling both show the highest rate of growth at 13 per cent.

A picture of rapid decline is widespread for the 30-44 age group by 2016, in particular Dundee City (-52 per cent) and Aberdeen City at -48 per cent. The only areas to show a slight rise by 2016 for this age group are Midlothian and Stirling (5 per cent and 3 per cent respectively).

Throughout Scotland the population aged 45-59 is projected to increase, the greatest changes by 2016 being increases of 52 per cent in Glasgow City, 41 per cent in City of Edinburgh and 30 per cent in West Lothian.

For those aged 60-74 a small increase is projected to 2006, with a strong rise thereafter. Aberdeenshire, the Shetland Islands and West Lothian show particularly strong rises (+51 per cent, +42 per cent and +40 per cent respectively by 2016). Glasgow City and Dundee City are the only areas with a projected fall, both at 7 per cent. The projections assume that mortality rates in Glasgow City continue to be considerably higher relative to Scotland as a whole (Appendix C).

There continues to be strong projected growth in the very elderly (i.e. 75 and over). By far the largest increase appears in East Dunbartonshire (+67 per cent by 2016), followed by East Renfrewshire (+41 per cent) and West Lothian (+40 per cent). The only decreases are found in Glasgow City (-16 per cent) and a small decrease in West Dunbartonshire (-4 per cent).

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