National Records of Scotland

Preserving the past, Recording the present, Informing the future

2004-based Population Projections for Scottish Areas: Background

2004-based Population Projections for Scottish Areas: Background

1. This report summarises the Registrar General for Scotland’s mid-2004 based population projections for the Council and NHS Board areas of Scotland. The projections are consistent with the mid-2004 based national population projections, prepared by the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) on behalf of the Registrars General for the constituent countries of the UK.

2. The projections in this report are based on revised 2004 population estimates published on 27 July 2007. These were revised following a review of the methodology used by the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS). More Information on the 'Revised Mid-Year Population Estimates' can be found this website.

3. The Population and Migration Statistics Commitee, which advises the Registrar General on demographic matters, recommended that this round of sub-national projections should be prepared up to 2024 (20 years ahead), rather than for 16 years as in previous years. Other small changes have been made to the software and method used to produce the projections and these are explained in Section 4. It should be remembered when looking at these results that they are mainly trend based and do not take account of policy initiatives and natural disasters. It is also important to note that projections become more uncertain the further ahead they go, especially for smaller areas, as these populations are affected more by the migration assumptions made. The uses and the limitations of these projections are decribed in more detail in Section 5.

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