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2004-based Population Projections for Scottish Areas: Comparisons with the 2002-based Projections

2004-based Population Projections for Scottish Areas: Comparisons with the 2002-based Projections

3.1 The differences between the latest sub-national projections and the previous 2002-based projections are summarised in Table 5 which compares the populations of administrative areas under the two projections at selected years (i.e. 2004, 2010, 2014 and 2018).

3.2 For Scotland, the 2002-based projection projected Scotland’s population to be 5.04 million by 2004 compared with the 2004 mid-year estimate of 5.08 million. The difference of about 40,000, is due to more births, fewer deaths and more people migrating to Scotland than had been assumed. By 2010 the difference between Scotland’s population under the two projections increases to about 127,000, though some of the difference is accounted for by the higher starting population in 2004. The difference by 2018 has increased to about 193,000 (from 4.94 million under the 2002-based projection to 5.13 million under the 2004-based projection). There are similar differences by administrative areas under the two projections. These differences are easier seen in Figure 8 and Figure 9 which show the percentage change between the 2002 and 2004-based population projections in the population projected for 2018 by council area and NHS board area respectively.

3.3 Figure 8 shows that by 2018 the population for most council areas is higher under the 2004-based projection than under the 2002-based projection except in 7 areas (Midlothian, Shetland Islands, Stirling, East Renfrewshire, East Lothian, Aberdeen City and East Dunbartonshire). The other council areas have larger populations with the biggest percentage increases in the Orkney Islands, Eiliean Siar and Scottish Borders. Figure 9 shows that by 2018 all the NHS boards have higher populations under the 2004-based projection except the Shetland Islands where the population is lower than that under the previous 2002-based projection. These changes have come about because of the different starting point (the 2004 mid-year estimate) and also the changes to the fertility, mortality and migration assumptions.  When looking at the comparisons between the projections it is important to bear in mind the uses and limitation of projections described in Section 5. More details about the assumptions can be found in Section 4.

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