Population Projections - The Practice in England & Wales

28 November 2005

Richard Pereira, Office for National Statistics (ONS)

The Office for National Statistics produces subnational population projections for England down to local authority level. These projections are fully consistent with the National Population Projections produced by the Government Actuary's Department, and take the latest ONS mid year population estimates as a starting point.

This presentation provided an overview of the methodology used to produce the subnational projections covering all of the components of change. It outlined some of the uses to which the projections are put and also described some of the issues and difficulties involved in their production. Finally it touched on some of the future developments that are being considered in light of these issues.

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Some useful links are given below:

Key links - Contacts for Subnational Population Projections, ONS Titchfield

Sub-national population projections for England can be found on the ONS website. This webpage gives links to two useful papers on the 2003-based projections: Data & Methodology Issues which details limitations users should be aware off in the data and a general methodology guide. Headline statistics Wales - Population and Migration 2004 can be found on the Welsh Assembly Government website.

Details of the 2003-based population projection datasets can be found on the ONS website. 

Note - Tables 1 to 10: Population; yrs 2003-2028; Males, females & persons; Quinary age groups (0-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, 85+) & All Ages; In thousands rounded:

Table 1 Government Office Regions (GORs) by sex/quinary age

Table 2 Unitary Authorities by sex/quinary age

Table 3 Counties by sex/quinary age

Table 4 Non-Metropolitan Districts - counties A-H by sex/quinary age

Table 5 Non-Metropolitan Districts - counties I-P by sex/quinary age

Table 6 Non-Metropolitan Districts - counties Q-Z by sex/quinary age

Table 7 London Boroughs by sex/quinary age

Table 8 Metropolitan Districts by sex/quinary age

Table 9 Strategic Health Authorities by sex/quinary age

Table 10 England & GOR Populations - selected years and age groups

Note - Tables 11 to 15: Selected summaries of population, natural change & net migration figures; yrs 2003, 2004,2008, 2013, 2018, 2023 & 2028; Persons only - no gender breakdown; All Ages total; In thousands rounded.

Table 11 England & GORs; selected summaries

Table 12 Strategic Health Authorities; selected summaries

Table 13 Counties; selected summaries

Table 14 Unitary Authorities; selected summaries

Table 15 County Districts; selected summaries

Table 16 Migration summaries; selected areas

Table 17 Migration summaries; strategic health authorities