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Scotland's Population 2006: The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends: 152nd Edition

Chapter 1 – Demographic Overview

Population

The latest estimate of Scotland’s population (on 30 June 2006) is 5,116,900 - a rise of 22,100 on the previous year and an increase of 52,700 since 30 June 2001.

This recent increase in Scotland’s population has been driven by net in-migration which has more than offset the small natural decrease consequent on the number of deaths exceeding the number of births. In the twelve months to 30 June 2006, in-migration exceeded out-migration by 21,200. This included a net gain of around 8,900 from the rest of the UK, a net gain of around 12,700 from overseas (including asylum seekers) and an adjustment of 1,500 for unmeasured out- migration. Movements to and from the armed forces showed a net gain of around 1,100. In the same period, there were 300 more deaths than births (55,000 births and 55,300 deaths), the number of births having risen by almost 700 and the number of deaths having fallen by almost 1,300 compared to the year to end June 2005.

The rise in Scotland’s population in the last four years should be seen in the context of the relative stability of the population over the last 50 years, as shown in Figure 1.1. The population reached a peak of 5.24 million in 1974 and since then has been on a gradually declining trend until rising slightly in the last four years.

Figure 1.1 Estimated population of Scotland, actual and projected, 1951-2031

1 2004-based projections.

Figure 1.2 shows the trends in natural change (births minus deaths) and migration. Between 1966 and 1974 both natural change and net out-migration fell dramatically, although the natural increase generally remained greater than net out-migration. This resulted in a growth in population up to 1974. From this point on, throughout the late 1970s and the 1980s net out-migration was higher than the levels of natural change, causing the population to decline. In recent years the gap between births and deaths has been closing and Scotland has experienced record levels of net in-migration leading to a small increase in the population. However, these recent trends are still relatively small: they do not alter the fact that the population has been stable since 1990.

Figure 1.2 Natural change and net migration, 1951-2006

Age Structure

The age/sex composition is one of the most important aspects of the population, as changes in different age groups will have different social and economic impacts. For example, increases in the elderly population are likely to place a greater demand on health and social services.

Figure 1.3 shows the age structure of the population in 2006. Eighteen per cent of the population was aged under 16 while 19 per cent was of pensionable age (60 and over for women and 65 and over for men) and the remaining 63 per cent of working age (16-59 for women, 16-64 for men). Amongst older people, particularly those aged over 75, the higher number of females reflects the longer expectation of life for women, partly as a result of male mortality rates during the Second World War. The sharp peak at age 59, and the bigger bulge between the ages of 35 and 45, are the result of the two baby booms of 1947 and the 1960s.

Figure 1.3 Estimated population by age and sex, 30 June 2006

The changing structure of Scotland’s population since 1996 is illustrated in Figure 1.4. During this period the population has increased by around 25,000 (0.5 per cent), from 5.09 million to 5.12 million. Of particular note is the decrease of 10 per cent in the number of children under 16 and the increase of 13 per cent in the number of people aged 75 and over. The ageing of the population is also evident in the rise of 14 per cent in the 45-59 age group, and the fall of 7 per cent in the 16-29 age group.

Figure 1.4 The changing age structure of Scotland's population, 1996-2006

Changes within Scotland

The map at Figure 1.5 shows the percentage change in population between 1996 and 2006 for each Council area. Chapter 2 of this report contains further information about the population of Council areas over the last 25 years.

Figure 1.5 Percentage population change by Council area, 1996-2006

The Council areas in which the population fall was greatest were Eilean Siar (-7.9 per cent), Dundee City (-6.6 per cent) and Inverclyde (-6.3 per cent). The largest absolute reduction in numbers was in Glasgow City (-18,150). West Lothian (+10.4 per cent), East Lothian (+6.7 per cent) and Stirling (+5.7 per cent) saw the greatest percentage increases, with the largest increase in absolute numbers in Edinburgh (+18,600).

The relative importance of migration and natural change differs between areas. For example, in some areas of population increase such as West Lothian, Aberdeenshire and East Renfrewshire the population gain is attributable both to gains from migration and to more births than deaths. In other areas, the population increase was due to in-migration, despite fewer births than deaths. These included Fife, Highland, Perth and Kinross, Scottish Borders and East Lothian. Other areas with a population increase but with a near-zero natural change were Falkirk, Clackmannanshire, and City of Edinburgh.

Similarly, some areas of population decline, such as Eilean Siar, Inverclyde, Dundee City, West Dunbartonshire and Glasgow City have experienced decreases both from migration and natural change. In contrast, the main factor in the population decline of Aberdeen City, East Dunbartonshire and the Shetland Islands is net out-migration. In other areas such as South Ayrshire, Angus and Argyll & Bute the population decline was mainly attributable to more deaths than births. This analysis is shown in Table 1.1 which compares the rates of natural change and migration per 1,000 population across the local authority areas.

Table 1.1 Components of population change for Council areas: 1996-2006

1 Per year per 1,000 population at 1996.
2 The underlying data used to produce these figures can be found in Table 6 of the ‘Mid-2006 Population Estimates Scotland’ publication.
3 Ordered by population change.

Projected population

The latest population projections are based on the estimate of Scotland’s population at 30 June 2004. These projections, based on existing trends and making no allowance for the impact of government policies and other factors, show the total population of Scotland rising from 5.08 million in 2004 to 5.13 million in 2019 before falling to 5.07 million by 2031 (Figure 1.1). Longer term projections for up to 40 years ahead show a continuing decline after 2031 to below 5 million in 2036 and 4.86 million in 2044. A revised projection, based on the higher 2006 population estimate, will be published later this year.

The most significant factor affecting the future population level to around 2021 is migration, because the natural decrease (more deaths than births) is likely to be offset by migrants moving to Scotland. However, after 2021 the most significant factor affecting the level of the population is the natural decrease, as the ageing population die in increasing numbers. Figure 1.6 shows a widening gap between births and deaths, with a natural decrease of almost 15,000 a year by 2031. This is likely to be the main reason for long-term population decline in the future.

Figure 1.6 Births and deaths, actual and projected, Scotland, 1951-2031

1 Calendar year.
2 2004-based mid-year projections.

Between 2004 and 2031, Scotland’s population is projected to age markedly. As shown in Figure 1.7, the number of children aged under 16 is projected to decrease by 15 per cent from 0.94 million to 0.79 million. The number of people aged 60 and over is projected to rise by 51 per cent from 1.10 million to 1.66 million.

Figure 1.7 The projected percentage change in age structure of Scotland’s population, 2004-2031¹

1 2004-based projections

Dependency ratios show the number of dependants – children aged under 16 and people of pensionable age – per 1,000 working age population. Figure 1.8 shows little overall change in these ratios over the next 15 years, but with a relatively rapid increase in the pension age population in relation to the working age population in subsequent years. Figure 1.8 also takes account of the increase in the female population of working age, consequent on the increase in the state pension age for women from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020.

Figure 1.8 Dependency Ratios¹ (per thousand working population), 2004-2028

1 2004-based projections

As demographic behaviour is uncertain, the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) produced a number of variant population projections, based on alternative assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration in addition to the ‘principal projection’ on which the previous paragraphs are based. The variant projections give users an indication of this uncertainty. They illustrate plausible alternative scenarios, rather than representing upper or lower limits of future demographic behaviour. These variant projections, and the assumptions used, can be found on the GAD website (www.gad.gov.uk) and a paper analysing the results for Scotland can be found on the GROS website ( http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/population-projections-scotland/2004-based-variant-projections).

Scotland’s position within Europe

Scotland is not alone in having a projected natural decrease in population, with deaths exceeding births. However, for most of Europe, this is compensated by higher in-migration than in Scotland. The population of Europe (EU-25) is projected to increase (by 2.7 per cent between 2004 and 2031). On the other hand, Italy, Germany, and a number of Eastern European countries have a projected population decline which exceeds Scotland’s over the next 30 years, as Figure 1.9 shows.

Figure 1.9 Projected percentage population change in selected European countries 2004-2031

Source: GAD (UK and constituent countries) and Eurostat. Eurostat also produce an alternative UK projection not shown here. See "Appendix 2 – Notes and Definitions" for definition of EU15 and EU25.

Nor is the ageing of the population unique to Scotland. The pattern of change over the last twenty years and the projected change in the age distribution is similar to that of other countries in the UK and Europe, although the rate of change varies.

Births

Numbers

The number of births registered in Scotland in 2006 was 55,690 – 1,304 (2.4 per cent) more than in 2005. This was 4,420 (8.6 per cent) more than 2002’s total – which was the lowest since civil registration began in 1855, with only half the number of births recorded during the ‘baby boom’ of the early 1960s. Since 2002, small increases have been recorded each year. In 2006, for the first year since 1994, births outnumbered deaths, albeit by only some 600. The number of births and deaths registered in Scotland since 1951 is shown in Figure 1.10.

Figure 1.10 Births and deaths, Scotland, 1951-2006

The proportion of births to unmarried parents (including births registered solely in the mother’s name) has continued to rise, reaching 47.7 per cent in 2006 compared to 36.0 per cent ten years earlier and 20.6 per cent in 1986. However, the proportion of births registered solely in the mother’s name has remained relatively constant over this period at 6 to 7 per cent, suggesting that the increase has been in babies born to unmarried partners who are in a stable relationship.

Fertility Rates

The simplest fertility rate is the crude birth rate which is defined as the number of live births per 1,000 total population. Appendix 1 Table 1 shows that in 2006 the crude birth rate for Scotland stood at 10.9 compared with around 20 forty years ago. Because it takes no account of the age/gender structure of the population, the crude birth rate has only limited value (e.g. for giving rough comparisons between areas with broadly similar age/gender structures). Appendix 1 Tables 2 and 3 present crude birth rates for administrative areas in Scotland and selected European countries. Appendix 1 Table 2 also gives standardised birth rates for the administrative areas of Scotland: these adjusted birth rates remove the effect of the different population structures.

A better approach is to consider the general fertility rate (GFR) which is based on the numbers of women of childbearing age. Figure 1.11 shows the general fertility rate (births per 1,000 females aged 15-44), along with the number of women aged 15-44. During the ‘baby boom’ of the 1960s, the GFR reached 99.5 (in 1962). It then fell sharply to around 60 during the late 1970s and 1980s before declining more slowly during the 1990s, eventually dipping below 50 at the start of the 21st century. It has risen slightly over the last few years to its 2006 value of 52.8. Interestingly, the figure shows that the female population aged 15-44 was relatively low during the baby boom of the 1960s, and that the levelling off in the annual numbers of births during the 1980s was in part associated with the increasing numbers of women born in the 1950s and 1960s, passing through their childbearing years.

Figure 1.11 Estimated female population aged 15-44 and general fertility rate (GFR), Scotland, 1951-2006

A more detailed picture is given by the age specific fertility rates (ASFRs) by mother’s age in five-year age groups in Figure 1.12. This shows many significant age-related features of the pattern of childbearing over the last fifty years. The key point is that, as well as choosing to have fewer babies, women are also choosing to have them later in life. Other points of interest are:

• The ‘baby boom’ of the 1960s was mostly due to increased birth rates of women in their twenties.
• Since the early 1960s, women in their twenties have experienced a dramatic fall in fertility. For women aged 20-24 the fertility rate has fallen by around two-thirds (from 189 births per 1,000 women to 62) and for those aged 25-29 it has fallen by just over a half (from 196 births per 1,000 women to 90).
• Fertility rates for women aged 30 and above have gradually increased over the last 30 years; in particular, the rate for 30-34 year olds overtook that of 25-29 year olds in 2002 and now stands at 97 births per 1,000 women.
• Despite the recent increases, rates for women aged over 30 are still slightly lower than they were in the 1950s and 1960s.
• The rate for 15-19 year olds fell by around one-third during the early 1970s, but has since shown only a modest decline.
• All the rates except that for teenagers showed a slight rise in recent years.

Figure 1.12 Live births per 1,000 women, by age of mother, Scotland, 1951-2006

Figure 1.13 further illustrates the ageing pattern of fertility by showing detailed ASFRs for selected years: 1951, 1964, 1977, 1991 and 2006. Though the levels differed considerably, the age patterns of fertility for 1951, 1964 and 1977 were roughly the same. However, the age distribution for 1991 shows a distinctly older peak and that for 2006 reveals the large reduction in fertility of women in their twenties.

The trend towards later childbearing is underlined by changes in the average age of mothers for all births. This was 29.5 in 2006, compared with 27.4 in 1991, 26.1 in 1977, and 27.4 in 1964.

Figure 1.13 Live births per 1,000 women, by age, selected years

The total fertility rate (TFR) is a commonly used summary measure of fertility levels calculated by summing the age specific rates for a single year. It gives the average number of children that a group of women would expect to have if they experienced the observed ASFRs in each of their childbearing years. For a population to replace itself, the TFR needs to be around 2.1.

The TFR for Scotland since 1951 is plotted in Figure 1.14. Not surprisingly, it follows the same general pattern as the GFR (Figure 1.11). It rose to 3.09 in 1964 before dropping sharply to 1.70 in 1977. Since then, with a few minor fluctuations, it fell more slowly to the 2002 rate of 1.48 before increasing to 1.60 in 2004 and 1.67 in 2006.

Figure 1.14 Total fertility rate, Scotland, 1951-2006

Though widely used, in part because it is relatively easy to calculate, the TFR has serious deficiencies as it is based on only one year’s observations. For example, when women are delaying childbearing, as they have been in Scotland, the TFR is likely to underestimate the number of children women will eventually have.

A more satisfactory measure is average completed family size. Figure 1.15 shows the completed family size (or cumulative cohort fertility) by age for women born in selected years. Those born in 1951 had attained an average completed family size of 2.03 by the time they reached 45, whereas for those born in 1956 the figure was 1.93. The figure also permits the comparison of family size at selected ages for the various cohorts as they pass through the childbearing ages. For example, by age 30 the cumulative childbearing of the 1976 cohort is almost 0.7, about 0.6 lower than that of the 1951 cohort. Of crucial importance is the extent to which the later cohorts are falling behind in family building. Whilst the increasing fertility rates of those aged over 30 may lead to some catching-up, it is highly unlikely that this will increase the average completed family size to the levels attained as recently as the 1960s.

Figure 1.15 Cumulative cohort fertility rate for selected birth cohorts, Scotland

Since 1971 Scotland’s fertility has also been falling relative to fertility in other parts of the United Kingdom. Figure 1.16 compares the TFRs for England, Wales and Northern Ireland over this period with those for Scotland. Until the late 1970s, Scotland’s TFR was slightly higher than that for England and Wales. However, since the early 1980s, Scotland’s TFR has dropped steadily below the levels for England and Wales. In 1971 the TFR for Northern Ireland was markedly higher than for the other three countries. However, since then the differential has been significantly reduced. It is interesting to note that the recent slight rise in fertility levels in Scotland has been paralleled elsewhere in the UK.

Figure 1.16 Total fertility rates, UK countries, 1971-2006

More detailed information on births and fertility was given in the Registrar General’s report on Scotland’s Population 2002. Chapter 2 focused on trends in Scottish fertility, comparing these trends with the rest of the UK and Europe and Chapter 3 placed the Scottish fertility experience in a wider geographical context, discussing reasons for low fertility and addressing the scope for policy intervention. The 2007 Registrar General’s Annual Review will again contain a chapter focussing on fertility.

Deaths

Numbers

At 55,093, the number of deaths registered in Scotland in 2006 was 654 (1.2 per cent) fewer than in 2005 and represented the lowest annual total recorded since the introduction of civil registration in 1855. Moreover, for the first time since 1994 there were more births (55,690) than deaths.

Figure 1.10 shows that from 1951 up to the early 1990s the annual number of deaths remained relatively stable at about 60-65,000 a year. Since then the total has declined slowly to its current level.

Stillbirths, perinatal deaths and infant deaths

As can be seen in Figure 1.17, there have been significant improvements in the rates for stillbirths, perinatal deaths and infant deaths in the period since 1971. The stillbirth rate has reduced from 13.1 per 1,000 total births (live and still) in 1971 to 5.3 in 2006, despite a change in the definition of stillbirths in 1992 which reduced the minimum period of gestation from 28 weeks to 24 weeks (thus increasing the numbers classified as stillbirths). The rate of perinatal deaths (stillbirths and deaths in the first week of life) fell from 24.5 per 1,000 total births in 1971 to 7.4 in 2006, an improvement of 70 per cent. The infant death rate (deaths of children aged under 1) has improved by 77 per cent from 19.9 per 1,000 live births in 1971 to 4.5 in 2006.

Figure 1.17 Stillbirth, perinatal and infant death rates, per 1,000 total births, Scotland 1971-2006

* Change in definition of stillbirths from 28 to 24 weeks’ gestation

Whilst the current rates are comparable to those for the UK as a whole, there are several Western European countries that have significantly lower rates (see Appendix 1, Table 3).

Mortality by age

About 60 per cent of deaths were of people aged 75 and over, and a further 19 per cent were between the ages of 65 and 74.

The relative stability in the total number of deaths over recent years masks significant improvements in age specific mortality. Figure 1.18 shows, for both men and women, selected age specific mortality rates over the last quarter of a century relative to the 1981 rates. The three age groups shown (45-64, 65-74 and 75 and over) account for around 95 per cent of all deaths.

At these ages, there have been greater improvements in male than in female mortality. For the 45-64 age group, males and females experienced improvements of 44 per cent and 40 per cent respectively. In the 65-74 age group, males showed an improvement of 45 per cent compared to 36 per cent for females. The greatest differential is in the 75 plus age group, where male mortality has improved by 28 per cent compared to only 12 per cent for females. These changes have narrowed the difference between female and (traditionally higher) male mortality.

Figure 1.18 Age specific mortality rates as a proportion of 1981 rate, 1981-2006

Life Expectancy

Although mortality rates in Scotland have generally fallen more slowly than in the rest of the UK and elsewhere in Europe, the improvements are still considerable and the impact is demonstrated in the steadily rising expectation of life.

The expectation of life at birth is a commonly used measure of mortality which is particularly helpful in comparing the ‘health’ of a nation through time and for making comparisons with other countries. Figure 1.19 shows that the expectation of life at birth in Scotland has improved greatly over the last 20 years or so, increasing from 69.1 years for men and 75.4 years for women born around 1981 to 74.8 years and 79.7 years respectively for those born around 2006. Figure 1.19 also illustrates that improvements in life expectancy at birth are projected to continue, rising to 79.2 years for men and 83.7 years for women by 2031.

Figure 1.19 Expectation of life at birth¹, Scotland, 1981-2031

1 2004-based projections.
Data after 2004 are projected.

However, Scottish men and women have among the lowest expectation of life at birth in the EU-25. The countries with lower life expectancy than Scotland were the Eastern European states which joined the EU on 1 May 2004. For Scottish males, expectation of life is almost 1 year lower than the EU average and, for females, it is almost 2 years lower. For both sexes, the expectation of life is about 4 years lower than the countries with the highest expectation of life.

Variations in mortality levels within Scotland

Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs), which compare local death rates with death rates in Scotland as a whole, taking account of the different population structure of each area, are presented in Figure 1.20. Four of the 32 Council areas have a standardised mortality ratio that is more than 10 per cent higher than the Scottish average of 100. These are all in West Central Scotland. The worst, Glasgow City, is 26 per cent higher than the Scottish average which itself is about 14 per cent higher than the UK average.

At the other end of the scale, 6 of the 32 Council areas have a standardised mortality ratio that is more than 10 per cent lower than the Scottish average. The lowest were East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire which were both 16 per cent below (or better than) the Scottish average.

Figure 1.20 Standardised mortality ratios, by Council area, 2006

Cause of death

In 2006, the two most common causes of death in Scotland were cancer (15,084 deaths, 27 per cent) and ischaemic (coronary) heart disease (9,532 deaths, 17 per cent). However, since 1981 the proportion of deaths caused by ischaemic heart disease has fallen from 29 to 17 per cent, whereas the proportion caused by cancer has risen from 22 to 27 per cent. And since 1995, there have been more deaths from cancer than ischaemic heart disease.

Cancer

Death rates, by sex, for the most common causes of death are shown in Table 1.2. Over the last 20 years or so, male death rates from lung cancer have fallen by over a quarter (from 119 per 100,000 population in 1980-82 to 88 in 2006). By contrast, the rates for women, though still considerably lower than those for men, have increased by 75 per cent (from 41 per 100,000 population in 1980-82 to 72 in 2006).

Of the 15,084 deaths from cancers in 2006, trachea, bronchus and lung were the most common type, accounting for over a quarter (27 per cent) of all cancer deaths.

The next most frequent type of cancer deaths was prostate for men (779 deaths, of which 67 per cent were aged 75 and over) and breast for women (1,108 deaths). Death rates for these two causes have been relatively stable in recent years.

Heart disease and stroke

Table 1.3 shows the number of deaths for males and females for the most common causes of death. In contrast to the rises for cancer, death rates for ischaemic heart disease (coronary heart disease) and cerebrovascular disease (stroke) have shown significant declines. Since 1981, males have experienced slightly larger improvements (49 per cent for ischaemic heart disease and 40 per cent for stroke) compared with improvements of 45 and 39 per cent respectively for females.

Table 1.2 Death rates from selected causes, by sex, Scotland, 1980-2006

Table 1.3 Number of deaths from selected causes, by sex, 1980-2006

Using 2005 data, the latest available, Figure 1.21 compares the death rates for the constituent countries of the UK for selected causes after adjusting for differences in age structure. The Scottish rates for cancer, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease (stroke) are well above the rates for the other countries of the United Kingdom for both men and women.

Figure 1.21 Age-adjusted mortality rates, by selected cause and sex, 2005

Source: ONS

Suicides

In 2006, deaths from intentional self-harm numbered 542 (427 males and 115 females), 5 fewer than in 2005. To allow for any under-recording of suicides, it is conventional to combine deaths classified as ‘events of undetermined intent’ with those for ‘intentional self-harm’, as most of the former are believed to be suicides. The total number of deaths classified to these two groups in 2006 was 765 compared with 763 in 2005 and 835 in 2004.

Suicide is the most common cause of death for men aged 15-44. For men the most frequent cause of these deaths was hanging, strangulation and suffocation, whereas for women it was poisoning.

Main causes of death by age and sex

The main causes of death vary in frequency by age and sex (Figure 1.22). Cancer was the largest single cause amongst boys aged 1-14, closely followed by accidents. For girls aged 1-14, accidents were the most common cause, followed by cancer.

For males aged 15-34, the largest cause was suicide (intentional self harm plus events of undetermined intent) followed by accidents and mental disorders (almost entirely associated with drug and alcohol abuse). For females in this age group, cancer was the largest category. Suicides, accidents and mental disorders were the next most common causes.

Suicide was also the most frequent cause of death for males aged 35-44, mental disorders were second followed by ischaemic heart disease. For women aged 35-44, cancer was the main cause.

For both sexes and all age groups between 45 and 74, cancer was the main cause followed by ischaemic heart disease. Cancer was responsible for a higher proportion of deaths in these age groups for women than for men. Conversely, ischaemic heart disease accounted for a higher proportion of deaths in these age groups for men than for women.

Figure 1.22 Deaths, by cause and age group, Scotland, 2006

Migration

Unlike births and deaths, there is no comprehensive source for estimating migration and hence it is the most difficult component of population change to measure and predict. Migration and the reasons for migrating are also much more susceptible to short-term changes in social and economic circumstances than births and deaths.

There has been an increased interest in migration in recent years, partly because the number of in and out migrants has been rising and partly because population projections have highlighted the long-term decline and ageing of Scotland’s existing population. The Scottish Executive’s Fresh Talent Initiative aims to stem population decline, and alleviate possible problems of a reduced workforce, by attracting young and economically active people to Scotland, and by encouraging others to stay.

The Registrar General’s Annual Report for 2003 includes a full analysis of migration data for Scotland. This included analysis of Census 2001 information and gave an overview of data used in the population estimates for Scotland. More detailed information on migration methodology is available on our website http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/migration/methodology.

Trends in migration since 1951

Historically, Scotland has been a country of net out-migration, with more people leaving Scotland to live elsewhere than moving to live in Scotland. However, since the 1960s net out-migration has greatly reduced. Indeed, in some years during the late 1980s and early 1990s, Scotland experienced net migration gains. This has also been the case in the last four years, with net gains of around 9,000 in the year to mid-2003, 26,000 (the highest level recorded since current records started in 1952) to mid-2004, 19,000 to mid-2005 and 21,000 to mid-2006. This can be seen in Figure 1.23.

Figure 1.23 Estimated net migration, Scotland, 1951-2006

Source: National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) patient movements.

Net migration is the difference between much larger flows of migrants into and out of Scotland. The level of net migration can be significantly affected by relatively small changes in these gross flows from year to year, particularly if one flow rises while the other falls. In the last 4 years migration into Scotland has typically been about 70,000 to 100,000 whilst migration from Scotland has ranged from around 70,000 to under 80,000.

In the year to 30 June 2006, around 53,300 people came to Scotland from England, Wales and Northern Ireland and around 44,400 people left Scotland to go in the opposite direction. The net inflow of around 8,900 is lower than the previous year’s 12,500 net inflow which in turn was lower than the highest ever 15,500 net inflow in the year to mid-2004. The reduction in the net inflow is due to fewer people coming to Scotland and only slightly fewer people leaving.

About 42,200 people (including some asylum seekers) came from overseas and around 29,500 left Scotland to go overseas, giving a record net migration gain from overseas of around 12,700, compared to the previous year’s net inflow of 7,300. Estimating international migration is particularly difficult as the estimate is based primarily on the International Passenger Survey (IPS). This is a sample survey conducted at main airports and ports across the UK, and the sample size for Scotland is very small (around 100 contacts in 2004). Internationally, migrants are defined as people who change their country of usual residence for 12 months or more. So, short-term seasonal migrant workers, including many from the Eastern European states which joined the EU in 2004, will not be counted in the migration estimates, and hence will not be included in the mid-year population estimates. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is currently leading UK-wide work into ways of quantifying short-term migrants.

Origins and destinations of UK migrants

Figure 1.24 illustrates the trend in flows of people to and from the rest of the UK since 1981. The UK flows have been fairly constant, with some fluctuations, at about 50,000 in either direction. Out-migration has been falling since 1999.

Figure 1.24 Movements to/from the rest of the UK, 1981 to 2006

Source: National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) patient movements.

Table 1.4 shows that 93 per cent of people coming to Scotland from the rest of the UK came from England. Sixteen per cent came from the South East, 14 per cent from both the North West and London, 10 per cent from Yorkshire and the Humber, 9 per cent from the East, 8 per cent from both the North East and South West, 7 per cent from East Midlands and 6 per cent from the West Midlands. The proportions of people going to the areas of England from Scotland were similar. For example, about 15 per cent went to the North West and London.

Table 1.4 Movements between Scotland and the rest of the UK by Country and Region, mid-2005 to mid-2006

Age and sex of migrants

Figure 1.25 illustrates the age/sex distribution for men and women moving between Scotland and the rest of the UK between mid-2005 and mid-2006. The peak ages for both males and females migrating into Scotland are 19 and 20. This creates a marked net migration gain at these ages. The peak ages for migrating out of Scotland on the other hand are 23 and 24 and this results in a net migration loss at these ages. These patterns are consistent with an influx of students from outside Scotland starting higher education, followed by a further move after graduation.

Figure 1.25 Movements between Scotland and the rest of the UK, by age, mid-2005 to mid-2006

There also tend to be smaller peaks for moves of the very young, under the age of five, as their parents move home before their children have started school. Later in life, there is no significant "retirement migration" in either direction. The pattern of migration is very similar for men and women, although more women than men appear to migrate in their early 20s. However, this may reflect different patterns of re-registering with an NHS doctor after a move (the main data source for migration estimates) rather than different patterns of migration.

The age and sex of migrants remain relatively constant from year to year. Figure 1.26 shows that, in the year to mid-2006, Scotland gained people of all age groups from the rest of the UK. Movement of most age groups into Scotland has increased since 2001 (the exception being in the 0-15 age group). However, the figures for the latest year are lower than in mid-2005 for all age groups other than the 16-29 group.

Figure 1.26 Net movements between Scotland and the rest of the UK by age group, 2001-2006

Source: National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) patient movements.

Table 1.5 shows movements to/from the UK and overseas between mid-2005 and mid-2006 by age group. Migrants tend to be much younger than the general population with between 48 per cent (rest of the UK) and 68 per cent (overseas) of in-migrants aged 16-34 compared with 24 per cent of the resident population. No significant retirement migration is evident, as only 5 per cent of people coming to Scotland from the rest of the UK were aged 65 and over, as were an assumed 1 per cent of overseas migrants.

Table 1.5 Rest of UK/Overseas moves by age group: 2005-2006

1 National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) patient movements mid-2005 to mid-2006.
2 Totals are based primarily on International Passenger Survey (IPS) data. However, the sample size in Scotland is too small to give an age breakdown so an age distribution is assumed using NHSCR data.
3 Note that the movements between Scotland and the rest of the UK and overseas will not sum to the total net migration as they exclude unmeasured migration and rounding adjustments.

Migration and the distribution of people in Scotland

In many parts of Scotland, migration is the most important component of population change. Net migration rates (here, the amount of net migration between 1996 and 2006 as a proportion of the 1996 population) are a useful indicator when comparing migration between areas of different sizes. Information on net rates for Council areas is shown in Figure 1.27.

Figure 1.27 Net migration rates for Council areas, 1996 to 2006

The patterns of migration over the period 1996 to 2006 indicate that the highest net out-migration rates were in Shetland Islands, Aberdeen City and Dundee City. The highest net in-migration rates were in Perth & Kinross, East Lothian and West Lothian.

Marriages

Numbers

There were 29,898 marriages in Scotland in 2006, 983 (3.2 per cent) fewer than in 2005. Figure 1.28 shows that, following a decline from over 40,000 marriages a year in the early 1970s, the annual total has levelled out at around 30,000. The highest total recorded in recent years was 32,154 in 2004.

The information in this section covers all marriages registered in Scotland, regardless of the usual residence of the parties involved. In 2006, there were 8,079 marriages (27 per cent) where neither the bride nor groom was resident in Scotland. This represents a slight fall from 9,710 (30 per cent) in 2004 and 8,817 (29 per cent) in 2005. Gretna Green continues to be a popular venue for marriages, though the 4,434 registered in 2006 were a fifth down on the record total of 5,555 in 2004. In 2006, 86 per cent (3,805) of the marriages at Gretna did not involve a Scots resident.

Of course, many couples who are resident in Scotland go abroad or to the rest of the UK, to be married. These marriages are not included.

Figure 1.28 Marriages, Scotland, 1971-2006

Marital status at marriage

Figure 1.29 shows the percentage of marriages by marital status at the time of marriage between 1971 and 2006. The percentage of people marrying who had been divorced rose from just under
6 per cent in 1971, to over a quarter in 2006 (28 per cent for males and 26 per cent for females). The majority of this shift reflects a reduction in the proportion of marriages where one of the partners had never been married. However, the proportion of those marrying who were widowed has also declined slightly – in 2006, the proportion was about 2 per cent whereas it was just over 3 per cent in 1971.

Figure 1.29 Marriages, by marital status and sex of persons marrying, 1971-2006

Age at marriage

The average age at marriage continues to rise for both males and females. For first marriages, the average age of grooms has risen from 29.1 in 1996 to 32.1 in 2006; the comparable figures for brides are 27.4 in 1996 and 30.2 in 2006.

Marriages by type of ceremony

Civil marriages accounted for just over half (51 per cent) of all marriages in 2006 compared to just under one-third (31 per cent) in 1971 (Figure 1.30). The trend mainly reflects a decline in the number of religious ceremonies during the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s. The small increase in religious marriages observed during the period 1997-2002 was mainly associated with the increase of ‘tourism’ marriages, of which a significant proportion were carried out at Gretna.

Figure 1.30 Marriages, by type of ceremony, 1971-2006

Until 2002, civil marriages could only be held in registration offices. The Marriage (Scotland) Act 2002 allowed registrars to conduct ceremonies in other approved places, from June 2002. Over 700 venues have now been approved, including castles, hotels, clubs and a small number of outdoor venues in gardens or the countryside.

During 2006, 7,346 civil ceremonies (25 per cent of all marriages and 48 per cent of civil marriages) were conducted at these ‘approved places’. This represented an increase of 4 per cent on 2005 and an increase of 112 per cent on 2003, the first full year of the new arrangements. There has been a corresponding decrease in the number of religious marriages, from 16,890 in 2003 to 14,709 in 2006.

Just over half (55 per cent) of the religious marriages were celebrated in places of worship and a similar proportion (52 per cent) of civil marriages were in registration offices. Hotels were the venue for about 2,400 religious and 3,400 civil ceremonies, while approximately 1,100 religious and 900 civil marriages took place in castles and other historic buildings and 36 religious and 43 civil marriages were held on ships and barges.

Divorces

Numbers

The number of divorces in 2006 was 13,014, some 2,074 (19 per cent) more than in 2005. This significant increase is primarily the result of changes to divorce legislation introduced by the Family Law (Scotland) Act 2006. The changes, which came into effect on 4 May 2006, reduced separation periods for divorce with consent to one year (previously two years) and without consent to two years (previously five years). It is likely that the impact of this change will reduce over the next few years, because some divorces which were finalised in 2006 would otherwise have been finalised in later years.

Figure 1.31 shows the number of divorces between 1971 and 2006. There was a marked increase in the number of divorces up to a peak of over 13,373 in 1985. Recent years, up to 2005, have seen a slight fall from the levels recorded in the late 1980s and 1990s. It is probable that increasing cohabitation is relevant to the recent decline in divorces, since divorce proceedings are not necessary to sever such relationships.

The information in this report covers divorces granted in Scotland, regardless of where the marriage took place.

Figure 1.31 Divorces, Scotland, 1971-2006

Grounds for divorce

Figure 1.32 shows the trends in grounds for divorce between 1981 and 2006. For 2006, it includes the new categories introduced by the Family Law (Scotland) Act 2006. Non-cohabitation/ separation was the most frequent reason for divorce, accounting for 88 per cent of all divorces in 2006, more than double the 39 per cent attributed to the non-cohabitation categories in 1981. Behaviour as the stated reason for divorce fell from 42 per cent to 9 per cent and adultery from 17 per cent to 2 per cent.

Figure 1.32 Number of divorces, by grounds for divorce, Scotland, 1981-2006

* New categories introduced with effect from 4 May 2006 by the Family Law (Scotland) Act, 2006
** Categories not used after 4 May 2006

Divorces by marital status

Of those divorcing in 2006, 17 per cent of both men and women had divorced previously. This compares with 8 per cent for men and 7 per cent for women in 1981. This is consistent with the increase in the proportion of all marriages where one or both participants was divorced previously (now 2 in 5 marriages compared with 1 in 4 twenty-five years ago).

Duration of marriages that ended in divorce

In 2006, the median duration of marriage ending in divorce was 15 years, whereas the comparable duration for 1981 was 9 years. In part, this change reflects the increasing proportion of marriages involving couples already in stable cohabiting relationships.

Divorce by age at marriage

In 2006, 24 per cent of all divorces involved couples where at least one of the partners was aged 20 or under when they married. This is a significant fall from 60 per cent in 1981, but not unexpected given that the proportion of marriages where at least one of the partners was aged 20 or under has fallen from 36 per cent in 1981 to 2 per cent in 2006.

Civil Partnerships

The Civil Partnership Act 2004, which enables same-sex couples aged 16 and over to obtain legal recognition of their relationship, came into force throughout the UK on 5 December 2005. In Scotland, the first civil partnership was registered on 20 December 2005 and by the end of that year a total of 84 had been registered – 53 male couples and 31 female couples. During 2006, the first full year of operation, a further 1,047 partnerships were registered – 580 male couples and 467 female couples. The 1,131 civil partnerships registered in Scotland by the end of 2006 represent 6 per cent of the UK total of over 18,000.

The average age of civil partners has been higher for men than for women. This was particularly true for the initial registrations in December 2005 when it was 53.1 for men and 45.4 for women. The average ages for 2006 were 45.6 for men and 43.0 for women. As the early registrations will have involved many long-established relationships, it is expected that the average ages will fall further over the next few years. In 2006, 10 per cent of men entering a civil partnership had previously been married. For women, the figure was 24 per cent.

Adoptions

The Registrar General recorded 418 adoptions during 2006 – 21 fewer than in 2005, just over half the number recorded in the early 1990s and around a quarter of the number recorded in the early 1970s.

Some 30 per cent of the children adopted in 2006 were adopted by a step-parent while 65 per cent were adopted by people who were not related to the child. Only 14 per cent of children adopted in 2006 were aged under two, nearly all being adopted by non-relatives. By contrast, only 20 per cent of the 99 adoptions of children aged ten or over were by non-relatives.

Gender Recognition

The Gender Recognition Act 2004 came into force on 4 April 2005. The Act applies throughout the UK and enables transsexual people to apply to the Gender Recognition Panel to obtain a Gender Recognition Certificate. Successful applicants are considered from the date of issue of the Certificate to be legally of their acquired gender. A holder of a Gender Recognition Certificate is able to enjoy all the rights appropriate to a person of his or her acquired gender, including obtaining a new birth certificate showing his or her recognised legal gender.

The Registrar General for Scotland has set up a Gender Recognition Register in which the birth of a transsexual person whose acquired gender has been legally recognised is registered showing any new name(s) and the acquired gender. This enables the transsexual person to apply to the Registrar General for Scotland for a new birth certificate showing the new name(s) and the acquired gender. In 2006, there were 43 entries in the Gender Recognition Register, 4 fewer than in 2005. The Gender Recognition Register is not open to public scrutiny.

Households

In contrast to the long-term projected decline in Scotland’s population, the latest projections of the number of households show an increase. This is mainly due to the population ageing, and more people living alone, or in smaller households – the average household size is projected to drop from 2.22 people in 2004, to just under 2 by 2024. This is a continuation of the long-running decline in average household size – in 1971, the average household contained around 3 people. Between 2004 and 2024, the number of households is projected to increase by 13 per cent to 2.5 million – an average of 14,800 additional households per year.

Household type

Figure 1.33 shows the projected number of households of each type, in 2004 and 2024. There is a large projected increase in the number of adults living alone, from 770,000 (34 per cent of all households) in 2004 to over a million (42 per cent) by 2024. There are also increases in other small households – households containing just two adults without children are projected to rise from 670,000 to 810,000, and the number of households containing one adult with children is projected to rise from 150,000 to 200,000.

In contrast, the number of larger households is projected to fall, with households containing two or more adults with children decreasing from 460,000 (20 per cent of all households) in 2004 to 320,000 (12 per cent) by 2024. There is also a projected decrease in the number of households containing three or more adults, from 200,000 to 150,000 over the same period.

Figure 1.33 Projected households in Scotland by household type: 2004 and 2024

Age of head of household

Figure 1.34 shows the projected number of households in 2004 and 2024, by the age of the head of household. The population projections show that Scotland’s population is ageing, with a projected increase in the number of people in the older age groups and fewer people in the younger age groups. This trend is reflected in the household projections, with the largest increases shown in households headed by people aged 60 or over (an increase of over a third between 2004 and 2024, from 730,000 to 990,000). In contrast, households headed by someone aged under 60 are projected to increase by just two per cent, to around 1.5 million. The number of households headed by someone aged 85 or over is projected to more than double over this period, from 56,000 to 117,000.

Figure 1.34 Projected households in Scotland by age of head of household: 2004 and 2024

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