1.1.1 Household projections are produced by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) every two years. As these are the first set of household projections following the 2011 Census, significant changes have been made to the method used to produce these projections. The changes have been made to include data from the 2011 Census, as well as the 1991 and 2001 Censuses. Furthermore, the changes provide the flexibility for projections to incorporate up-to-date survey data on the types of households people are living in, rather than only using census data as in previous sets of projections. The aim of the changes is to incorporate the longer-term trends better, as well as reflecting more recent changes in household formation.
1.1.2 This set of projections covers the period from 2012 to 2037, a projection period of 25 years. The household projections incorporate the latest (2012-based) population projections and the 2012 and 2013 household estimates (both available on the NRS website). Information from the 1991, 2001 and 2011 Censuses and the 2012 Scottish Household Survey is used to project trends in the types of household that people are living in. Data from a range of sources on residents in communal establishments, such as care homes or prisons, is also included. The results of the household projections are presented for Scotland and Scottish Council areas.
1.1.3 Further information on the data and methods used to produce the household projections is available in Section 6.
1.2.1 The household projections have limitations. A projection is a calculation showing what happens if particular assumptions are made. The household projections are trend-based and are not, therefore, policy-based forecasts of what the Government expects to happen. They are based on the population projections and trends in household formation. The assumptions used for the population projections, such as future migration, fertility and mortality, will therefore affect the household projections. Trends in household formation are based on data from the 1991, 2001 and 2011 Censuses. No forecast is made of possible future changes that may alter these trends, such as economic and social change, as well as imbalances between housing supply and demand. Projections based on small groups of people or households tend to be less reliable than those based on larger groups. The uncertainty in the projections increases as they are taken further into the future. More information on the limitations of the household projections can be found in Section 7.2.
This report focuses on the ‘principal projection’, the projection based on the assumptions that we think are most likely to occur. The report also includes sections on household projections prepared using alternative assumptions. These variant projections reflect possible effects of uncertainty in the assumptions underlying the population projections. Low and high migration variant household projections, which use the low and high migration variant population projections, are presented in Section 5.
1.3.1 Household projections are mainly used for informing council decisions about future housing need and service provision (such as waste collection and community care). The projections feed into development plans, including assessments of housing need and demand for the future1. The projections are also used to help inform policy development and for answering requests for information from Ministers, councils, academics, other organisations and the general public.
1.3.2 Household estimates and projections (Scotland and the UK) are used directly and indirectly in the production of certain statistics contained within the Annual Government Expenditure and Revenues Scotland (GERS) publication and the Quarterly National Accounts Scotland (QNAS) releases which are available on the Scottish Government (SG) website. The estimates and projections are used in QNAS as an auxiliary variable (alongside consumption data) in the production of Household Final Consumption Expenditure estimates by product. In turn, these expenditures inform the GERS publication in estimating revenues associated with consumption (e.g. VAT and duties).
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