5.1.1 Most of this paper concentrates on the principal projection. The principal projection uses assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration which are thought to be most likely to occur over the next 25 years based on past trends. A number of variant projections are produced at Scotland level and seven of these (the high and low migration variants, high and low life expectancy variants, high and low fertility variants, and the zero migration variant) have been produced for Council and NHS Board areas. It should be noted that variants are not intended to provide upper or lower bounds, rather they use different plausible assumptions of what might happen in an area.
5.1.2 These variants are consistent with those published at national level. Details of the assumptions used for each variant are shown in Annex H.
5.1.3 Table 6 shows the projected population for each Council and NHS Board area under the principal and seven variant projections for 2037 as well as the projected percentage population change by 2037 for each of the variants
5.1.4 Figure 10 shows the projected population for Scotland under the principal and each of the seven variants. Similar charts are available for each Council and NHS Board area within the Sub-National Population Projections 2012-based section of the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website.
5.2.1 Migration variant projections use the same fertility and mortality assumptions as the principal projection but assume higher or lower levels of net in-migration to Scotland. It should be noted that apart from for the zero migration variant, only moves to and from the rest of the UK and overseas are affected by this. The number of people moving between Council and NHS Board areas within Scotland does not change from the principal projection and so areas where the population is most affected by migration within Scotland will not change as much as those where international migration has the greater effect.
5.2.2 The high migration variant projection shows Scotland’s population rising from 5.31 million in 2012 to 6.01 million in 2037. This compares with an increase to 5.78 million in 2037 under the principal projection, and an increase to 5.55 million under the low migration variant. The zero migration (natural change only) variant projects the population of Scotland to be 5.27 million by 2037.
5.2.3 The populations of 25 of the 32 Council areas in Scotland are projected to increase and seven to decrease by 2037 under the high migration variant. Under the low migration variant, the population of half of the 32 Council areas are projected to increase and the other half are projected to decrease by 2037. For the zero migration variant, the population of 11 Council areas is projected to increase and 21 to decrease. In general the largest increases and decreases occur in the same areas in both the low and high migration variants as they do under the principal projection but the size of the changes differ.
5.2.4 Similar to the principal projection, the Council areas projected to show the largest relative increases under the high migration variant over this period are City of Edinburgh (+38 per cent), Aberdeen City (+36 per cent) and Perth & Kinross (+30 per cent). Again as in the principal projection, Inverclyde (-18 per cent) and Argyll & Bute (-9 per cent) show the largest relative population decreases.
5.2.5 The populations of all NHS Board areas except the Western Isles (-5 per cent), Ayrshire & Arran and Dumfries & Galloway (both -2 per cent) are projected to increase under the high migration variant. As before, Lothian (+30 per cent), Grampian (+24 per cent), and Tayside (+19 per cent) show the biggest increases.
5.2.6 Under the low migration variant, the Council area projected to show the largest relative increase over this period is Aberdeen City , East Lothian, and City of Edinburgh which are all projected to increase by 20 per cent. Again as in the principal projection, Inverclyde (-22 per cent) and Argyll & Bute (-19 per cent) show the largest relative population decreases.
5.2.7 The populations of half of the NHS Board areas are projected to increase with the low migration variant. As before Lothian (+17 per cent) shows the biggest increase, and Grampian (+13 per cent) and Tayside (+9 per cent) also show large increases, and Western Isles shows the largest decline (-15 per cent).
5.2.8 For the zero migration variant, 11 Council areas are projected to have a population increase by 2037 while the population of 21 Council areas is projected to decrease. The Council area projected to show the largest relative increase is West Lothian (+6 per cent), followed by the Shetland Islands and Clackmannanshire (both +3 per cent). Eilean Siar is projected to have the largest relative decrease (-9 per cent) under this variant, followed closely by South Ayrshire and Argyll & Bute (both -8 per cent) which are also projected to have population decreases by 2037 under this variant.
5.2.9 The populations of five NHS Board areas are projected to rise under the zero migration variant, while the population of the other nine are projected to decline by 2037. The largest increase is projected for Shetland (+3 per cent), and the largest decrease is projected for Western Isles (-9 per cent).
5.3.1 The life expectancy variant projections use the same fertility and migration assumptions as the principal projection but assume higher or lower mortality rates. The mortality rates used for the variants in the national projections are used alongside the local scaling factors, similar to the principal projection. The change in rates results in changes to the projected life expectancy for 2037. Under the high variant, life expectancy for males is projected to be 84.7 years compared with 81.9 for the principal projection for Scotland. For females, the equivalent figure is 87.4 years compared with 85.4 years. For the low variant, projected life expectancy for males and females by 2037 is 79.6 years and 83.5 years respectively.
5.3.2 The high life expectancy variant projection shows Scotland’s population rising from 5.31 million in 2012 to 5.86 million in 2037. This compares with an increase to 5.78 million in 2037 under the principal projection, and an increase to 5.70 million under the low life expectancy variant.
5.3.3 The populations of 22 of the 32 Council areas in Scotland are projected to increase and ten to decrease by 2037 under the high life expectancy variant. Under the low life expectancy variant, the population of 17 of the 32 Council areas is projected to increase and 15 decrease by 2037. In general the largest increases and decreases occur in the same areas in both the low and high life expectancy variants as they do under the principal projection but the size of the changes differ.
5.3.4 Similar to the principal projection, the Council areas projected to show the largest relative increases under the high life expectancy variant over this period are Aberdeen City (+30 per cent) and City of Edinburgh (+29 per cent). As in the principal projection, Inverclyde (-18 per cent) is projected to have the biggest population decline by 2037, and Argyll & Bute (-12 per cent) also shows a relatively large population decrease.
5.3.5 The populations of 11 NHS Board areas are projected to increase under the high life expectancy variant, with the exceptions being Western Isles (-9 per cent), Dumfries & Galloway (-5 per cent), and Ayrshire & Arran (-3 per cent). As before, Lothian (+24 per cent), Grampian (+20 per cent), and Tayside (+16 per cent) show the biggest increases.
5.3.6 Under the low life expectancy variant, the Council area projected to show the largest relative increase over this period is Aberdeen City and City of Edinburgh (both +27 per cent). Perth & Kinross (+23 per cent) shows the third biggest increase under this projection followed closely by East Lothian (+22 per cent). As in the principal projection, Inverclyde (-21 per cent) and Argyll & Bute (-15 per cent) show the largest relative population decreases.
5.3.7 The populations of eight NHS Board areas are projected to increase with the low life expectancy variant. As before Lothian (+22 per cent) shows the biggest increase, and Grampian (+17 per cent) and Tayside (+13 per cent) also show large increases. Western Isles is projected to have the largest decrease (-13 per cent), followed by Dumfries & Galloway (-8 per cent).
5.4.1 The fertility variant projections use the same mortality and migration assumptions as the principal projection but assume higher or lower fertility rates. The rates from the national population projections have been used, and the local scaling factors are still applied as with the principal projection. The high fertility variant assumes in the long-term a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.95, and the low variant assumes a TFR of 1.55, compared with the principal rate of 1.75.
5.4.2 Under the high fertility variant, the population of Scotland in 2037 is projected to be 5.95 million, and for the low fertility variant it is projected to be 5.65 million, a difference of around 0.3 million.
5.4.3 The high fertility variant projects the population of 25 Council areas to increase by 2037, and the biggest increases are projected for City of Edinburgh and Aberdeen City (both +32 per cent), and East Lothian and Perth & Kinross (both +27 per cent). Under this variant the biggest population decline is still projected for Inverclyde (-17 per cent), followed by Argyll and Bute (-11 per cent) and Eilean Siar (- 9 per cent).
5.4.4 For NHS Board areas, the high fertility variant projects the population to rise by 2037 for all areas except Western Isles (-9 per cent), Dumfries & Galloway (-4 per cent) and Ayrshire & Arran (-2 per cent). The largest increases are projected for Lothian (+27 per cent), Grampian (+22 per cent), and Tayside (+17 per cent).
5.4.5 The low fertility variant projects the population of half the Council areas in Scotland to increase while the rest are projected to decrease. The biggest rises are projected for the same areas as under the high fertility variant: City of Edinburgh (+26 per cent) and Aberdeen City (+25 per cent). Also the biggest population declines are projected for the same areas as under the high fertility variant: Inverclyde (-21 per cent), Argyll & Bute (-15 per cent) and Eilean Siar (-12 per cent).
5.4.6 Under the low fertility variant, the population of eight NHS Board areas is projected to increase and six to decrease by 2037. The same areas are projected to see the biggest increases under the low fertility variant as under the high fertility variant: Lothian (+20 per cent), Grampian (+16 per cent) and Tayside (+11 per cent). The two largest decreases are projected for the same areas as for the high fertility variant: Western Isles (-12 per cent), and Dumfries & Galloway (-8 per cent).