Projected Population of Scotland (2008-based)

Main Points

The Key points in this report are as follows:

Principal projection

The population of Scotland is projected to rise from 5.17 million in 2008 to 5.36 million in 2018 and to continue to rise to 5.54 million in 2033 – an increase of 7 per cent over the 25 year period.
Between 2008 and 2018 the number of children aged under 16 is projected to increase by 1 per cent from 0.91 to 0.92 million. It is then projected to decrease to 0.90 million in 2033 (a 1.5 per cent decrease compared to 2008).
The number of people of working age¹ is projected to increase from 3.24 million in 2008 to 3.36 million in 2018 (an increase of 4 per cent). It is then projected to fall to 3.31 million in 2033 (an increase of around 2 per cent compared to 2008).
The number of people of pensionable age² is projected to rise from 1.02 million in 2008 to 1.07 million in 2018 (an increase of 6 per cent). It is then projected to rise more rapidly, reaching 1.34 million in 2033 (an increase of around 31 per cent compared to 2008).
The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by around 23 per cent from 0.39 million in 2008 to 0.48 million in 2018. It is then projected to continue rising, reaching 0.72 million in 2033 - an increase of 84 per cent over the 25 year period.
The dependency ratio – the ratio of persons aged under 16 or over pensionable age to those of working age – is projected to rise from around 60 per 100 in 2008 to 68 per 100 in 2033.
The populations of the other three countries in the UK are projected to increase more than Scotland’s with England’s population projected to increase by 18 per cent, Wales’ by 12 per cent and Northern Ireland’s by 14 per cent between 2008 and 2033.

Variant projections

Under each of the alternative scenarios illustrated by the nine available variant projections Scotland’s population is projected to increase between 2008 and 2018. All but 2 of these variants also show an increase over the first 25 years of the projection.
All the variant projections show Scotland’s population ageing significantly over the next 25 years with the number of people aged 75+ projected to increase by between 72 per cent and 96 per cent under these assumptions.

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