Births, deaths and other vital events, first quarter 2026: Summary
The number of births was 2.6% lower than average.
11,347 births were registered in 2026 quarter 1. This figure is 2.6% lower than the quarter 1 average of 11,651.
Number of Births by Quarter (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4)
The number of deaths was 6.5% lower than expected.
16,382 deaths were registered in January to March 2026. That’s 6.5% below the expected number of deaths, which was 17,527.
Number of Deaths by Quarter (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4)
The number of marriages was 2.2% higher than average.
There were 3,310 marriages in the first quarter of 2026. This was 2.2% higher than the first quarter average of 3,240.
Number of Marriages by Quarter (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4)
Main points
- There were 11,347 births registered in Scotland between 1 January and 31 March 2026. This is 2.6% lower than the quarter one average of 11,651.
- There were 16,382 deaths in 2026 quarter one. This is 6.5% lower than the expected number of deaths, which was 17,527.
- For all broad age groups, the number of deaths was lower than the expected number for quarter one of 2026. Female deaths were 552 (6.3%) lower than the expected number and male deaths were 593 (6.7%) lower than expected in the latest quarter.
- There were 37 stillbirths in quarter one of 2026. The quarter one average was 43. The stillbirth rate was 3.3 per 1,000 live and still births and this rate is the second lowest, for quarter one, over the past decade. The stillbirth rate exhibits a high degree of fluctuation from quarter to quarter, but has generally been decreasing over the longer term.
- There were 51 infant deaths, giving a rate of 4.5 per 1,000 live births, in the first quarter of 2026. This is higher than the quarter one average of 41 deaths and the rate is the joint highest quarterly infant death rate since the fourth quarter of 2011. Over the longer term, the infant death rate has fallen. However, in the most recent 5 years (2021 Q2 to 2026 Q1) quarterly rates have been slightly higher overall.
- There were 3,310 marriages in quarter one of 2026. This was 2.2% higher than the first quarter average of 3,240. Of these marriages, 122 (3.7%) were same-sex marriages, compared with the quarter one average of 129 (4.0% of all marriages).
- Since June 2021 mixed-sex couples have been able to form a civil partnership. Of the 217 civil partnerships registered in the first quarter of 2026, 184, or 85%, involved mixed-sex couples. There were 33 same-sex civil partnerships, compared with an average of 27.
Introduction
This release presents provisional figures for vital events which were registered in Scotland in the period from 1 January to 31 March 2026, inclusive. The tables and charts provide statistics on births, stillbirths, marriages, civil partnerships and deaths, including:
- quarterly figures for Scotland back to 2014;
- the totals for each Local Authority and NHS Board area for the latest quarter; and
- more detailed analyses of the numbers of deaths (for example cross-classified by sex, cause and NHS Board area) for the latest quarter.
The quarterly tables can be downloaded from the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website.
Births
There were 11,347 live birth registrations in 2026 quarter one. This is 2.6% lower than the quarter one average of 11,651.
Expressed as a rate, there were 8.3 live births per 1,000 population. The live birth rate has generally been decreasing over time. Ten years ago, in the first quarter of 2016, the birth rate was 10.0 births per 1,000 population.
There were 37 stillbirth registrations in the first quarter of 2026. This is lower than the quarter one average of 43. The stillbirth rate was 3.3 per 1,000 live and still births and this rate is the second lowest, for quarter one, over the past decade. The stillbirth rate exhibits a high degree of fluctuation from quarter to quarter, but has generally been decreasing over the longer term.
Deaths
In the first quarter of 2026 there were 16,382 deaths. This 6.5% lower than the expected number of deaths which was 17,527.
Expressed as a rate, there were 12.0 deaths per 1,000 population.
Excess deaths is the difference between the observed number of deaths in a particular period and the number of deaths that would have been expected in that period, based on historical data. The expected number of deaths is estimated from age-specific mortality rates rather than death counts, so trends in population size and age structure are taken into account. This new method for calculating excess deaths was introduced in February 2024 and has been adopted by statistical agencies across the UK. This new method has been applied retrospectively to all of the years included in this publication, and in the associated table. More information about this can be found in the methodology paper on the Office for National Statistics website.
In April 2025, the Office for National Statistics published a blog outlining plans for future improvements to the excess deaths methodology.
Estimates of excess deaths produced by the new methodology are labelled as Official Statistics in Development while further review, testing and development work is undertaken.
Figure 1 illustrates the number of deaths registered each quarter since 2011, and shows the trend in expected deaths and excess deaths. From the second quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2023 we had more deaths than expected in most quarters, with the highest quarterly excess deaths seen in 2020 quarter two.
However, in the eleven most recent quarters, from the third quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2026, the number of deaths registered has been lower than the expected number of deaths.
A new method for calculating excess deaths has been adopted by statistical agencies across the UK. The new method of calculating expected and excess deaths takes into account trends in population size and age structure. More information about this can be found in the methodology paper on the ONS website.
Figure 1: The number of deaths has been lower than the expected level for the eleven most recent quarters
Deaths, expected deaths and excess deaths in Scotland, by quarter
Figure 2 illustrates the number of excess deaths by age group in each quarter since 2013.
In all age groups, deaths have been below expected levels for the last eleven quarters – since the third quarter of 2023. In quarter 1 of 2026 deaths among under 65s were 115 (3.9%) lower than expected, deaths in the 65-79 age group were 461 (8.3%) below expected and deaths for people aged 80 and over were 569 (6.3%) lower than expected levels. Female deaths were 552 (6.3%) below expected and male deaths were 593 (6.7%) lower than expected.
Figure 2: In all age groups, the number of deaths has been below expected levels since Q3 of 2023
Excess deaths in Scotland by age group, by quarter
In quarter one of 2026 there were:
- 4,087 deaths from cancer; 25% of all deaths;
- 1,936 deaths from respiratory diseases; 12% of all deaths
- 1,926 deaths from Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias; 12% of all deaths
- 1,709 deaths from coronary (ischaemic) heart disease; 10% of all deaths
- 967 deaths from cerebrovascular disease; 6% of all deaths.
There were 170 deaths from influenza in quarter one of 2026. This was less than half of the number in the same period of 2025 (439 deaths). These figures reflect the earlier peak to the influenza season in 2025-26 compared to 2024-25. The latest figures on the number of deaths involving influenza can be found in the weekly deaths publication on the NRS website.
There were 51 infant deaths in the first quarter of 2026. This is higher than the quarter one average of 41 infant deaths (deaths within the first year of life). The infant death rate of 4.5 deaths per 1,000 live births is the joint highest quarterly rate (along with quarter 2 of 2023) since the fourth quarter of 2011. Over the longer term, the annual infant death rate had been falling until around 2013 when it started to plateau. Quarterly infant death rates can fluctuate, however in the most recent 5 years (2021 Q2 to 2026 Q1) the quarterly rates have been slightly higher than in the preceding period.
There were 37 stillbirth registrations in the first quarter of 2026. This is lower than the quarter one average of 43. The stillbirth rate was 3.3 per 1,000 live and still births and this rate is the second lowest, for quarter one, over the past decade. The stillbirth rate exhibits a high degree of fluctuation from quarter to quarter, but has generally been decreasing over the longer term.
Marriages and civil partnerships
There were 3,310 marriages in quarter one of 2026. This was 2.2% higher than the quarter one 5-year average of 3,240. A five-year average of 2020 plus 2022-2025 is used for comparison because the number of marriages and civil partnerships in the first quarter of 2021 was affected by COVID-19 restrictions.
There were 122 same-sex marriages; 3.7% of the total, compared with the average of 129 (4.0%) for quarter one.
The number of marriages began to increase after the COVID-19 restrictions, which were first put in place in quarter 2 of 2020, were eased. Quarter three of 2021 was the first to return to pre-pandemic levels.
Since June 2021 mixed-sex couples have been able to form a civil partnership. Of the 217 civil partnerships registered in the first quarter of 2026, 184 (85% of the total) involved mixed-sex couples. There were 33 same-sex civil partnerships, compared with an average of 27.
Natural change (births minus deaths)
For the latest four quarter period (2025 Q2 to 2026 Q1) there were 44,995 births and 61,387 deaths, a difference of 16,392 fewer births compared to deaths.
Having fewer births than deaths in a population is referred to as ‘negative natural change’, meaning that without external factors (such as migration) the population will fall. Scotland has been in a position of negative natural change since the four-quarter period ending 2015 Q1. Prior to this, there was a sustained period of positive natural change (i.e. more births than deaths) going back to 2006. As can be seen from Figure 3, the gap between births and deaths has fluctuated over time and there have been several periods of both positive and negative natural change over the last 50 years. In the last few years, the gap between births and deaths has been wider than at any other point during this time period.
Figure 3: For the latest four quarter period (2025 Q2 to 2026 Q1) there were 16,392 more deaths than births
Births, deaths and marriages registered in rolling periods of four quarters
Note: The number of birth registrations in the quarters of 2020 do not reflect the number of births which occurred.
Information about our statistics
This is a quarterly publication. NRS collects the underlying data on a daily basis, as and when each event is registered. The statistics for 2025 and 2026 are provisional and likely to be finalised in summer 2026 and summer 2027 respectively.
Finalised Vital Events statistics for calendar years as a whole can be found in the Vital Events Reference Tables.
You can get other detailed statistics that we have produced from the Statistics section of our website. Scottish Census statistics are available on the Scotland’s Census website.
Information about the sources, methods, definitions and reliability of these statistics is available from the following NRS web archive pages:
Estimates of excess deaths produced by the new methodology are labelled as Official Statistics in Development while further review, testing and development work is undertaken.
With the exception of the statistics on excess deaths, these statistics are designated as Accredited Official Statistics. More information about Official Statistics can be found on the Statistics governance and consultation page.
We also provide information about upcoming publications on our website.
If you would like receive updates on our statistics, you can register your interest on the Scottish Government ScotStat website.
You can also follow us on social media @NatRecordsScot
