Births, deaths and other vital events, fourth quarter 2025: Summary
The number of births was 5.8% lower than average.
11,081 births were registered in 2025 quarter 4. This figure is 5.8% lower than the quarter 4 average of 11,760.
Number of Births by Quarter (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4)
The number of deaths was 4.6% lower than expected.
16,382 deaths were registered in October-December 2025. That’s 4.6% below the expected number of deaths, which was 17,163.
Number of Deaths by Quarter (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4)
The number of marriages was 5.2% higher than average.
There were 6,458 marriages in 2025 quarter 4. This was 5.2% higher than average of 6,139 for the fourth quarter of the year.
Number of Marriages by Quarter (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4)
Main points
- There were 11,081 births registered in Scotland between 1 October and 31 December 2025. This is 5.8% lower than the quarter four average of 11,760.
- There were 16,382 deaths in 2025 quarter four. This is 4.6% lower than the expected number of deaths, which was 17,163.
- For all broad age groups, the number of deaths was lower than the expected number for quarter four of 2025. Female deaths were 412 (4.8%) lower than the expected number and male deaths were 369 (4.3%) lower than expected in the latest quarter.
- There were 296 deaths from influenza in quarter four of 2025. This was more than double the number in the same period of 2024 (124 deaths). These figures reflect the earlier start to the influenza season this winter compared to previous years.
- There were 38 stillbirths (3.4 per 1,000 live and still births) in quarter four of 2025. The quarter four average was 42.
- There were 33 infant deaths, a rate of 3.0 per 1,000 live births, in the fourth quarter of 2025. This is lower than the quarter four average of 44.
- There were 6,458 marriages in quarter four of 2025. This was 5.2% higher than the quarter four average of 6,139. Of these, 281 (4.4%) were same-sex marriages, compared with the quarter four average of 241 (3.9% of all marriages).
- Since June 2021 mixed-sex couples have been able to form a civil partnership. Of the 284 civil partnerships registered in the fourth quarter of 2025, 233, or 82%, involved mixed-sex couples. There were 51 same-sex civil partnerships, compared with an average of 29.
Comparisons for statistics on births, marriages and civil partnerships are usually made by comparing the current year to the average for the previous five years. For 2025, standard practice would be to compare against the 2020-2024 average.
As the 2020 figures were severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic – marriages were much lower than usual and registration of births was delayed - comparing the 2025 figures to an average including 2020 would not give a true reflection of how the latest quarter’s figures compare to the average.
2025 comparisons have therefore been made against the 5 years 2019 plus 2021-2024.
Introduction
This release presents provisional figures for vital events which were registered in Scotland in the period from 1 October to 31 December 2025, inclusive. The tables and charts provide statistics on births, stillbirths, marriages, civil partnerships and deaths, including:
- quarterly figures for Scotland back to 2014;
- the totals for each Local Authority and NHS Board area for the latest quarter; and
- more detailed analyses of the numbers of deaths (for example cross-classified by sex, cause and NHS Board area) for the latest quarter.
The quarterly tables can be downloaded from the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website.
Births
There were 11,081 live birth registrations in 2025 quarter four. This is 5.8% lower than the quarter four average of 11,760.
Expressed as a rate, there were 7.9 live births per 1,000 population. The live birth rate has generally been decreasing over time. Ten years ago, in the fourth quarter of 2015, the birth rate was 10.0 births per 1,000 population.
The stillbirth rate was 3.4 per 1,000 live and still births (38 stillbirths) in the fourth quarter of 2025. This is lower than the quarter four average of 42 stillbirths.
Deaths
In the fourth quarter of 2025 there were 16,382 deaths. This 4.6% lower than the expected number of deaths which was 17,163.
Expressed as a rate, there were 11.7 deaths per 1,000 population.
Excess deaths is the difference between the observed number of deaths in a particular period and the number of deaths that would have been expected in that period, based on historical data. The expected number of deaths is estimated from age-specific mortality rates rather than death counts, so trends in population size and age structure are taken into account. This new method for calculating excess deaths was introduced in February 2024 and has been adopted by statistical agencies across the UK. More information about this can be found in the methodology paper on the Office for National Statistics website.
In April 2025, the Office for National Statistics published a blog outlining plans for future improvements to the excess deaths methodology.
Estimates of excess deaths produced by the new methodology are labelled as Official Statistics in Development while further review, testing and development work is undertaken.
Figure 1 illustrates the number of deaths registered each quarter since 2011, and shows the trend in expected deaths and excess deaths. From the second quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2023 we had more deaths than expected in most quarters, with the highest quarterly excess deaths seen in 2020 quarter two.
However, in the ten most recent quarters the number of deaths registered has been lower than the expected number of deaths.
A new method for calculating excess deaths has been adopted by statistical agencies across the UK. The new method of calculating expected and excess deaths takes into account trends in population size and age structure. More information about this can be found in the methodology paper on the ONS website.
Figure 1: The number of deaths has been lower than the expected level for the ten most recent quarters
Deaths, expected deaths and excess deaths in Scotland, by quarter
Figure 2 illustrates the number of excess deaths by age group in each quarter since 2013.
In all age groups, deaths have been below expected levels for the last ten quarters. In quarter 4 of 2025 deaths among under 65s were 117 (4.1%) lower than expected, deaths in the 65-79 age group were 204 (3.7%) below expected and deaths for people aged 80 and over were 460 (5.2%) lower than expected levels. Female deaths were 412 (4.8%) below expected and male deaths were 369 (4.3%) lower than expected.
Figure 2: In all age groups, the number of deaths has been below expected levels since Q3 of 2023
Excess deaths in Scotland by age group, by quarter
In quarter four of 2025 there were:
- 4,250 deaths from cancer; 26% of all deaths;
- 1,951 deaths from respiratory diseases; 12% of all deaths
- 1,795 deaths from Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias; 11% of all deaths
- 1,663 deaths from coronary heart disease; 10% of all deaths
- 894 deaths from cerebrovascular disease; 5% of all deaths.
There were 296 deaths from influenza in quarter four of 2025. This was more than double the number in the same period of 2024 (124 deaths). These figures reflect the earlier start to the influenza season this winter compared to previous years. The latest figures on the number of deaths involving influenza can be found in the weekly deaths publication on the NRS website.
The infant death rate (deaths within the first year of life) was 3.0 deaths per 1,000 live births in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Marriages and civil partnerships
There were 6,458 marriages in quarter four of 2025. This was 5.2% higher than the quarter four average of 6,139.
There were 281 same-sex marriages; 4.4% of the total, compared with the five-year average of 241 (3.9%) for quarter four.
The number of marriages began to increase after the COVID-19 restrictions, which were first put in place in quarter 2 of 2020, were eased. Quarter three of 2021 was the first to return to pre-pandemic levels.
Since June 2021 mixed-sex couples have been able to form a civil partnership. Of the 284 civil partnerships registered in the fourth quarter of 2025, 233 (82% of the total) involved mixed-sex couples. There were 51 same-sex civil partnerships, compared with an average of 29.
Natural change (births minus deaths)
For the latest four quarter period (2025 Q1 to 2025 Q4) there were 45,068 births and 61,725 deaths, a shortfall of 16,657 births compared to deaths.
Having fewer births than deaths in a population is referred to as ‘negative natural change’, meaning that without external factors (such as migration) the population will fall. Scotland has been in a position of negative natural change since the four-quarter period ending 2015 Q1. Prior to this, there was a sustained period of positive natural change (i.e. more births than deaths) going back to 2006. As can be seen from Figure 3, the gap between births and deaths has fluctuated over time and there have been several periods of both positive and negative natural change over the last 50 years. In the last few years, the gap between births and deaths has been wider than at any other point during this time period.
Figure 3: For the latest four quarter period (2025 Q1 to 2025 Q4) there were 16,657 more deaths than births
Births, deaths and marriages registered in rolling periods of four quarters
Note: The number of birth registrations in the quarters of 2020 do not reflect the number of births which occurred.
Information about our statistics
This is a quarterly publication. NRS collects the underlying data on a daily basis, as and when each event is registered. The statistics for 2025 are provisional and likely to be finalised in summer 2026.
Finalised Vital Events statistics for calendar years as a whole can be found in the Vital Events Reference Tables.
You can get other detailed statistics that we have produced from the Statistics section of our website. Scottish Census statistics are available on the Scotland’s Census website.
Information about the sources, methods, definitions and reliability of these statistics is available from the following NRS web archive pages:
Estimates of excess deaths produced by the new methodology are labelled as Official Statistics in Development while further review, testing and development work is undertaken.
With the exception of the statistics on excess deaths, these statistics are designated as Accredited Official Statistics. More information about Official Statistics can be found on the Statistics governance and consultation page.
We also provide information about upcoming publications on our website.
If you would like receive updates on our statistics, you can register your interest on the Scottish Government ScotStat website.
You can also follow us on social media @NatRecordsScot
