2.1.1 The results of the 2006-based projections show the total population of Scotland rising from 5.12 million in 2006 to 5.37 million in 2031 before slowly declining. Figure 1 shows the results for Scotland for 25 years ahead, up to 2031.
Figure 1 Estimated population of Scotland (2006-based), actual and projected, 1951- 2031
1 2006-based projection.
2.1.2 A key point is that, in parallel with the projected rise in the size of the population over the next 25 years, Scotland’s population is projected to age markedly. Further details on the national projection results are available on the General Register Office for Scotland’s (GROS) website through the following link: http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/population-projections-scotland/2006-based
2.2.1 The populations of 15 of the 32 council areas in Scotland are projected to increase and 17 to decrease by 2031 as shown in Table 1. The map at Figure 2a and the chart at Figure 2b show the projected percentage change in population between 2006 and 2031 for each council area. In general, most councils adjacent or close to Edinburgh City are projected to increase in size whereas other large urban areas are projected to decline - for example, Aberdeen City, Glasgow City and Dundee City. Other areas in the west, such as Inverclyde, East and West Dunbartonshire and Renfrewshire are also projected to decline.
2.2.2 The council areas which are projected to show the largest relative increases over this period are Perth & Kinross (+22 per cent), West Lothian (+22 per cent), East Lothian (+21 per cent) and Aberdeenshire (+19 per cent). The largest relative population decreases are projected in Inverclyde (-15 per cent), East Dunbartonshire (-15 per cent), Shetland (-10 per cent) and Aberdeen City (-9 per cent). Table 3 shows the projected percentage change in population for selected years.
2.2.3 The overall projected population change is a result of a combination of natural change (the difference between the number of births and deaths) and migration. The relative importance of each factor differs between areas. Table A compares the projected rates of natural change and migration across council and NHS board areas between 2006 and 2031. In some areas of projected population increase such as West Lothian, East Lothian, Aberdeenshire and Edinburgh the population gain over this 25 year period is attributable both to gains from migration and to more births than deaths. In other areas, the projected increase is due to in-migration despite fewer births than deaths. These include Perth & Kinross, Scottish Borders, Orkney, Highland and Angus.
2.2.4 Similarly some areas of projected population decline, such as Inverclyde, East Dunbartonshire and Shetland are projected to experience decreases from both migration and natural change. In Midlothian, Glasgow City and East Renfrewshire the projected population decline is due to net out-migration despite more births than deaths. In contrast, in areas such as Eilean Siar, Dumfries & Galloway and Argyll & Bute the population decline is due to more deaths than births despite net in-migration.
Table A Components of projected population change for Council areas, 2006-2031
| Area |
Natural change1 |
Net migration2 |
Percentage projected |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCOTLAND |
0.3 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
| Council areas sorted |
|||
| Inverclyde |
-6.1 |
-9.4 |
-15.5 |
| East Dunbartonshire |
-2.4 |
-12.9 |
-15.3 |
| Shetland Islands |
-2.7 |
-6.9 |
-9.6 |
| Aberdeen City |
-1.6 |
-7.6 |
-9.3 |
| Dundee City |
-1.2 |
-7.9 |
-9.2 |
| West Dunbartonshire |
-1.1 |
-7.7 |
-8.8 |
| Renfrewshire |
-1.3 |
-7.0 |
-8.2 |
| Eilean Siar |
-15.0 |
9.5 |
-5.5 |
| East Ayrshire |
-3.7 |
-0.9 |
-4.6 |
| Midlothian |
2.5 |
-6.9 |
-4.4 |
| North Ayrshire |
-4.2 |
1.3 |
-2.9 |
| Dumfries & Galloway |
-9.1 |
6.4 |
-2.7 |
| Moray |
-3.2 |
1.2 |
-1.9 |
| Argyll & Bute |
-8.0 |
6.5 |
-1.5 |
| Glasgow City |
2.9 |
-4.2 |
-1.3 |
| South Ayrshire |
-7.9 |
6.7 |
-1.2 |
| East Renfrewshire |
3.4 |
-3.5 |
-0.1 |
| North Lanarkshire |
3.4 |
0.3 |
3.7 |
| Angus |
-6.2 |
10.8 |
4.6 |
| Falkirk |
0.1 |
8.4 |
8.4 |
| Clackmannanshire |
1.1 |
7.8 |
8.9 |
| South Lanarkshire |
0.6 |
8.7 |
9.3 |
| Highland |
-3.9 |
14.5 |
10.7 |
| Stirling |
2.8 |
8.8 |
11.6 |
| Fife |
1.8 |
10.8 |
12.6 |
| Orkney Islands |
-4.7 |
19.5 |
14.7 |
| Scottish Borders |
-3.5 |
19.0 |
15.6 |
| Edinburgh, City of |
5.1 |
12.0 |
17.2 |
| Aberdeenshire |
2.5 |
16.3 |
18.7 |
| East Lothian |
5.3 |
15.9 |
21.2 |
| West Lothian |
11.4 |
10.6 |
22.0 |
| Perth & Kinross |
-1.3 |
23.4 |
22.0 |
1Projected natural change between 2006 and 2031 per 100 population at 2006
2Projected change due to migration between 2006 and 2031 per 100 population at 2006
3Ordered by projected population change
© Crown copyright 2008
Figure 2a Projected percentage change in population, (2006-based), by Council area, 2006-2031
Figure 2b Projected percentage change in population (2006-based), by council area, 2006-2031
2.3.1 There are also projected differences in the size of the populations of NHS board areas over the next 25 years. This is illustrated in the map at Figure 3a and the chart at Figure 3b both of which show the projected percentage change in the population of NHS board areas between 2006 and 2031.
2.3.2 Nine of the NHS board areas are projected to increase and five to decrease. The areas with the largest relative projected increases are Lothian (+16 per cent), Borders (+16 per cent), Orkney (+15 per cent) and Fife (+13 per cent). The areas with the largest relative projected decreases are Shetland (-10 per cent), Western Isles (-6 per cent), Greater Glasgow & Clyde (-4 per cent) and Ayrshire & Arran (-3 per cent). Table 3 shows the projected percentage change in population for selected years.
2.4 Age structure across Scotland
2.4.1 As well as wide differences in the projected size of the population for different areas, there are large differences in the projected age structure. Table 2 gives detailed population projections by age group and Table 3 gives the changes for selected age bands. For Scotland as a whole, the number of children aged 0-15 is projected to decrease by 7 per cent from 0.92 million in 2006 to 0.86 million by 2031. The number of people of working age is projected to increase by less than 1 per cent from 3.21 million to 3.23 million and the number of people of pensionable age to increase by 31 per cent from 0.98 million to 1.29 million.
2.4.2 These changes take into account the increases in the state pension age which will rise from 60 to 65 for women between 2010 and 2020 and then from 65 to 66 for both men and women between 2024 and 2026. A further increase to age 68 for both men and women will occur between 2034 and 2046.
Figure 3a Projected percentage change in population, (2006-based), by NHS board area, 2006-2031 (Map)
Figure 3b Projected percentage change (2006-based), by NHS board area, 2006-2031
2.4.3 The number of children aged 0-15 is projected to decrease in 24 of the 32 council areas by 2031. The exceptions are East Lothian (+15 per cent), Perth & Kinross (+14 per cent), West Lothian (+11 per cent), Scottish Borders (+6 per cent), Edinburgh (+5 per cent), Fife (+3 per cent), Stirling (+3 per cent) and Aberdeenshire (an increase of less than 1 per cent). The projected decline in the other council areas ranges from -31 per cent in Shetland to -3 per cent in South Lanarkshire as shown in Figure 4a.
Figure 4a Projected percentage change in population aged 0-15 (2006-based), by council area, 2006-2031
2.4.4 There are also projected differences in the size of the working age1 population between council areas by 2031. Figure 4b and Table 3 show the percentage change in the working age population between 2006 and 2031 and include the change in women’s state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change to 66 for both men and women by 2026. Of course this is the state retirement age and in practice people will retire at a range of ages. The working age population is projected to increase in 14 council areas by 2031, increasing the most in Edinburgh (+18 per cent), East Lothian (+17 per cent), West Lothian (+17 per cent) and Perth & Kinross (+17 per cent). A decrease is projected in the remaining 18 council areas ranging from a decrease of -25 per cent in East Dunbartonshire to less than -1 per cent in North Lanarkshire.
Figure 4b Projected percentage change in population of working age1 (2006-based), by council area, 2006-2031
1Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026
2.4.5 There are also differences between council areas in terms of the projected percentage change in the population of pensionable age (taking into account the change in women’s state retirement age), as Figure 4c shows. The population of pensionable age is projected to increase in all council areas by 2031. The largest relative increases are projected to be in Aberdeenshire (+76 per cent), West Lothian (+58 per cent), Orkney (+56 per cent) and Highland (+51 per cent).
Figure 4c Projected percentage change in population of pensionable age1 (2006-based), by council area, 2006-2031
1Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026
2.4.6 By 2031 the Scottish population aged 75 and over is projected to increase by 81 per cent, ranging from a projected increase of 19 per cent in Glasgow City to a projected increase of 156 per cent in Aberdeenshire.
2.4.7 There are similar variations by NHS board area. Figure 5a, Figure 5b and Figure 5c show the projected percentage change in the number of children (aged 0-15), people of working age and people of pensionable age by NHS board areas. The number of children is projected to decrease in all NHS board areas except Fife, Lothian and Borders. In addition, the population of working age3 is projected to decrease in 7 NHS board areas (Shetland, Dumfries & Galloway, Western Isles, Ayrshire & Arran, Greater Glasgow & Clyde, Grampian and Highland) and to increase in the other 7. The population of pensionable4 age is projected to increase in all NHS board areas, ranging from an increase of 14 per cent in Greater Glasgow & Clyde to +56 per cent in Orkney.
2.4.8 Table B summarises these changes, moving from the area with the greatest projected population decrease (Inverclyde) to the area with the largest increase (Perth & Kinross). In general the decreases in population are largely associated with large decreases in children and working age population, while increases are associated with large increases in the pensionable aged population.
Figure 5a Projected percentage change in population aged 0-15 (2006-based), by NHS board area, 2006-2031
Figure 5b Projected percentage change in population of working age1 (2006-based), by NHS board area, 2006-2031
1Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026
Figure 5c Projected percentage change in population aged1 (2006-based), by NHS board area, 2006-2031
1Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026
Table B Projected percentage change in population (2006-based), by broad age group and council areas, 2006-2031
| Area |
All ages |
Children (0-15) |
Working Ages1 |
Pensionable Ages1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCOTLAND |
5.0 |
-6.9 |
0.4 |
31.2 |
| Council areas sorted |
||||
| Inverclyde |
-15.5 |
-27.6 |
-22.3 |
16.2 |
| East Dunbartonshire |
-15.3 |
-29.1 |
-25.2 |
26.1 |
| Shetland Islands |
-9.6 |
-31.3 |
-20.7 |
50.7 |
| Aberdeen City |
-9.3 |
-24.6 |
-15.6 |
27.5 |
| Dundee City |
-9.2 |
-14.5 |
-12.4 |
5.1 |
| West Dunbartonshire |
-8.8 |
-21.3 |
-13.2 |
18.1 |
| Renfrewshire |
-8.2 |
-15.8 |
-14.0 |
17.9 |
| Eilean Siar |
-5.5 |
-25.5 |
-11.5 |
24.3 |
| East Ayrshire |
-4.6 |
-16.8 |
-10.8 |
26.1 |
| Midlothian |
-4.4 |
-12.4 |
-11.2 |
25.8 |
| North Ayrshire |
-2.9 |
-16.2 |
-10.3 |
31.0 |
| Dumfries & Galloway |
-2.7 |
-17.2 |
-12.9 |
32.4 |
| Moray |
-1.9 |
-19.9 |
-10.3 |
38.8 |
| Argyll & Bute |
-1.5 |
-14.7 |
-9.3 |
28.1 |
| Glasgow City |
-1.3 |
-11.6 |
0.2 |
3.1 |
| South Ayrshire |
-1.2 |
-10.4 |
-9.4 |
25.9 |
| East Renfrewshire |
-0.1 |
-6.0 |
-8.7 |
31.9 |
| North Lanarkshire |
3.7 |
-7.6 |
-0.3 |
31.3 |
| Angus |
4.6 |
-9.8 |
-3.1 |
37.2 |
| Falkirk |
8.4 |
-9.1 |
6.3 |
33.5 |
| Clackmannanshire |
8.9 |
-4.1 |
3.1 |
42.4 |
| South Lanarkshire |
9.3 |
-3.4 |
4.9 |
36.3 |
| Highland |
10.7 |
-7.6 |
2.2 |
51.3 |
| Stirling |
11.6 |
3.0 |
7.8 |
31.9 |
| Fife |
12.6 |
3.2 |
7.7 |
36.9 |
| Orkney Islands |
14.7 |
-5.5 |
6.0 |
55.9 |
| Scottish Borders |
15.6 |
6.4 |
8.7 |
40.9 |
| Edinburgh, City of |
17.2 |
5.2 |
18.2 |
23.7 |
| Aberdeenshire |
18.7 |
0.1 |
7.8 |
75.9 |
| East Lothian |
21.2 |
14.9 |
17.1 |
38.8 |
| West Lothian |
22.0 |
10.8 |
16.9 |
58.2 |
| Perth & Kinross |
22.0 |
14.1 |
16.7 |
42.5 |
1 Includes the change in women's state pension age between 2010 and 2020.
© Crown copyright 2008
2.4.9 The preceding paragraphs describe the projected percentage change by administrative area. It is also useful to look at the existing and projected age structure of the different areas. Figure 6a and Figure 6b and Figure 7a and Figure 7b show the proportion of the population who are children (aged 0-15), of working age and of pensionable age in 2006 and 2031 for council and NHS board areas respectively. The projected proportion of the population of Scotland of pensionable age increases from 19 per cent in 2006 to 24 per cent in 2031. The pattern is similar in nearly all areas. Amongst council areas in 2006, Dumfries & Galloway, Eilean Siar and South Ayrshire have the highest proportions of people of pensionable age (all 24 per cent) and West Lothian (15 per cent), Glasgow City (17 per cent) and Edinburgh (17 per cent) the lowest. The projected picture by 2031 is similar with Dumfries & Galloway and Eilean Siar still highest at 33 per cent and 31 per cent respectively. Glasgow City (17 per cent), Edinburgh (18 per cent) and West Lothian (20 per cent) still have the lowest proportions.
Figure 6a Age structure of council areas in 2006: children, working age, and pensionable age (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
Figure 6b Projected age structure of council areas in 2031: children, working age, and pensionable age (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
2.4.10 For NHS board areas a comparable pattern can be seen. In 2006, Dumfries & Galloway NHS board area has the highest proportion of its population of pensionable age (24 per cent) and it is still projected to have the highest proportion by 2031 (33 per cent). The area with the lowest proportion of its population of pensionable age in 2006 is Lothian (17 per cent) and in 2031 the proportion of pensionable age is still lowest in Lothian (20 per cent). A key point from all four charts is that the population in nearly all areas is projected to age by 2031.
Figure 7a Age structure of NHS board areas in 2006: children, working age, and pensionable age (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
Figure 7b Projected age structure of NHS board areas in 2031 (2006-based): children, working age, and pensionable age (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
