National Records of Scotland

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Household Projections for Scotland, 2018-based

Household Projections for Scotland, 2018-based

Last update: 29 September 2020
Next update: TBCNational Statistics Icon
Frequency: Biennial

Correction - 30 September 2020
An error has been found involving the number of `1 person female` households aged 75-79 for each council area in 2039, that were showing the same value as the Scotland total (67,165). Corrections have been made to each Council, Strategic Development Area and National Park detailed tables. 

Correction - 2 October 2020
An error has been found involving the 2028 data for the 3+ adults category in Figure 8: the values for the 2 adults category had been used.
Corrections have been made to the Report and to the Excel and csv Figures files.

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Report
(PDF 5 MB)

 

Figures

(Excel    CSV)

Infographic and
Data Visualisation

 

List of Data Tables

News Release
(29 September 2020)

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Metadata

(PDF 142 KB)

 

Key Points:

  • The number of households in Scotland is projected to increase by 120,000 (5%) over the next 10 years, from 2.48 million in 2018 to 2.60 million in 2028.  Over the entire 25-year projection period, the number of households is projected to increase by 10% to 2.71 million by 2043.
  • This projection equates to an average of 12,000 additional households per year up to 2028. The rate of increase is lower in the later years of the projection period, with an average of 7,800 additional households per year projected between 2028 and 2043.
  • Much of the projected growth in households between 2018 and 2028 will come from one-person and two adult households without dependent children. The numbers of these households are projected to increase by 8% (to 965,100 households) and 7% (to 830,600 households) respectively.
  • The gap between the average life expectancy of men and women in Scotland is decreasing and so the number of older men is projected to increase more rapidly than the number of older women. Compared with 2018, the number of men aged 65 and over living alone is projected to increase by 23% (to 139,500) in 2028. Over the same period, the number of women aged 65 and over living alone is projected to increase by 16% (to 245,900).
  • Growth in the number of households is fastest where the household reference person (HRP) is older: the number of households where the HRP is someone aged 65 or over is projected to increase by 20% between 2018 and 2028 (to 824,300 households). The increase is particularly large in the older age groups: the numbers of households with a HRP aged 75 to 84 is projected to increase by 30% (to 341,900 households), while for households with a HRP aged 85 or over a 22% increase (to 116,800 households) is projected.
  • Between 2018 and 2028, increases in the number of households are projected in 28 of Scotland’s 32 council areas, with only Argyll and Bute, Inverclyde, Na-h Eileanan Siar and North Ayrshire projected to have decreases. The fastest growing areas are in the east of the country, with Midlothian projected to have the biggest (16%) percentage increase.

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